PeterUbers

I think websurfer puts up an excellent argument...

ER1

There is so much FUD and disinformation here against Tesla and the Model S, I don't even know where to start. I feel ashamed on behalf of my fellow Mercedes enthusiasts and feel sorry for WEBSRFR for the crap that has been thrown at him, although WEBSRFR perhaps comes off a bit too "fanboi". I want to add my quick European 2 cents here from a long-time (ex) Mercedes/German car owner for a little objectivity. I have never owned or even considered owning an US-made car (sorry!). That is, before Tesla.

For background information, I'm a serious long-time petrolhead and I have owned for example a Porsche 911 (996) turbo, Audi A6 biturbo TDI, Mercedes CLS 55 AMG, and Audi S6 V10. Prior to buying my first Tesla Model S, I owned a 2008 Mercedes S500 4matic. All of these cars have been my daily drivers and only cars at the time. I always own just one (nice) car at a time which we share with my wife.

I laughed at electric cars before Tesla came to the picture. However, test driving a Model S 85 (non-performance) changed everything back in 2014. After driving the Tesla, my Mercedes S500 felt slow, jerky, and just outdated. Actually, after test driving the all-new S500 it felt outdated too. Especially the engine and transmission response/delay of a gas engine started to bother me after experiencing the Tesla's no-delay electric powertrain. Gas powertrain delays never bothered me before, but once I experienced the instant "flying carpet" or "roller-coaster" feeling of the Model S, a gas car has not felt the same anymore. The only thing that put me off from buying a Tesla after the test drive was that they were all RWD and with our tough winters and poor experiences with my CLS 55 AMG (getting stuck all of the time even with excellent Nordic winter tires) I had promised I would never buy a RWD car again.

But after just 3 months after my first Tesla test drive back in Autumn 2014, I sold my S500 and bought a used Model S 85 Performance Plus (P85+). The P85D had just been released, but the used P85+ was much cheaper, so I decided to buy that model first just to make sure I did not make a wrong decision going all-electric. It was after all my only daily driver. I had the P85+ for 6 months during our rough Finnish -30C winter and the car was phenomenal even though it was only RWD. The rear-biased weight distribution and electric traction control was far superior to my previous RWD CLS 55. The Tesla felt closer to AWD than RWD and traction was actually not really an issue. Sure there was some tire-spinning here and there due to the massive 0-RPM torque, but it was never a problem like with the CLS. The roller-coaster feeling of the P85+ was so addictive it made me giggle like a child. It was so much fun!

My 6 months "trial period" for the Tesla was enough and I knew the Model S was the right choice for me. Sure, there were some minor interior amenities that I miss that were on my previous cars such as 360 degree Top View, night vision, HUD, LED headlights, massaging and ventilated seats, but the Model S has so many other better qualities that it was still the far better car as a whole. I want to stress this: The Model S is not perfect and is not for everyone (especially the interior is a futuristic and minimalistic design, but it grows on you), so I think everyone should do a long test drive with the car to make sure it feels right for your lifestyle and meets your requirements. However, there are many other Tesla/Model S positives that do not come up during a test drive, for example excellent customer service that I have never experienced from any Mercedes, Audi or Porsche dealer. With Tesla, you really feel like the customer is the king. I bought a P85D in the summer of 2015 and now I'm waiting for the Ludicrous update. The P85D has exceeded all of my very high expectations and it has been an excellent car. I am extremely satisfied with the car and Tesla's service. So far with 35.000 kilometers, there has been no maintenance and I have only had to replace one handle that occasionally during freezing days did not come out. The repair experience with Tesla was like nothing I had previously experienced. Everything that was agreed was kept and customer service was excellent. They actually washed and cleaned my car inside-out free-of-charge and I got a nice new Model S loaner without even asking! Of course, the repair did not cost a dime. The whole experience could not have been better. Tesla really goes a long way to ensure customer satisfaction. We have taxi drivers with Model S's that have driven over 100,000 kilometers without even once visiting the service center for a repair or maintenance! That is not possible with any gas car.

In my opinion the best part of the Model S and what made me switch permanently from gas cars is the 0-lag powertrain, superior acceleration, very low maintenance and "fuel" etc. daily costs, the high-tech including the 17" display, and over-the-air updates. The car gets better and new features almost every month. Especially with the powertrain there is just no comparison or with Porsche words, there is no substitute. Every morning I have a "full tank" and plugging in the outlet takes a few seconds, it becomes a no-brainer routine. Now, when I drive by gas stations I feel sorry for people waiting in long lines during gas sale campaigns to get a 10 cent discount.

Even long-distance travel has never been a problem with the Model S thanks to superchargers, quick chargers, home charging, and destination chargers. I could see a problem for people that have to drive hundreds of kilometers/miles every day that the Tesla might not be convenient anymore, but for the majority of people like me with a 50 kilometer commute and occasional 200-1000 kilometer trip it really is no problem. Stopping every 300-450 kilometers (=the real world range of the Model S with my quite hard driving, in winter at -20C it is closer to 280 kilometers) to go to the bathroom and eat something makes the trip relaxing. Range has never been an issue to me, but you have to change your thinking and routines from gas cars. You have a full tank every day! You don't drive somewhere to refuel once or twice a week like with a gas car.

As I said, I have never owned or considered owning an US-made car, because they felt generations behind German cars. The good thing about the Model S is that it does NOT feel like and American car. It feels like a German car. Not as perfect from a build quality standpoint, but Tesla's build quality is improving all of the time and there was a big positive difference between my P85+ and my P85D (VINS were 28xxx and 56xxx). The newest VINS of 100,000+ are even better.

I still love the sound of a V8, V10 and V12 and I admit I occasionally miss it. However, the serenity of the Model S, the Star Wars "warp drive" sounds and just effortless fun drive made the choice a no-brainer for me. Join the rEVolution!

P.S. Tesla is still a startup company. Other car companies have been around for 100 years, so it is impressive what Tesla has achieved in just a few years. Perhaps the stock is overvalued - depends how successful Tesla will be in the long run and with the Model 3 - but the truth is that currently Tesla has no competition. Tesla spends a lot of money for R&D and that is why they lose money. Their missions is to build the Model 3 and it takes huge investments to get to that goal. If Tesla wanted to make a profit, they could just make the Model S and X and stop investing, but that would be a poor long-term strategy for a growth company. Here's a good read: http://www.autoblog.com/2015/08/10/t...-each-model-s/

PeterUbers

Sounds like an advertisement

"Join the revolution"

I feel like I just met an amway rep

No offense

MTrauman

+1


Not sure there is so much fear but there is uncertainty and doubt.


Uncertainty and doubt that Tesla is the HOLLY GRAIL of car companies that that the fanboys think it is. There can be no doubt Tesla is moving the electric car forward--that is awesome. But some people make it sound like owning a Tesla is better than having sex! Maybe for some it is but I doubt it for the majority.


Will the Chevy Bolt or some other car really be the car to the masses or will it be the Model 3 in the EV space? Time will tell. In the mean time yes the Tesla Model S at $125,000 is a neat car but compared to my $137,000 '16 S550 4matic there is simply no question in my mind the MB S Class is a much better value and a better car.


I do not dislike the Model S (in fact I have thought about buying one but not to replace my S Class) but comparing all factors in the US I cannot imagine buying the Model S instead of the MB S Class. Just plain crazy at this point!

ER1

Relax people. Perhaps it would have been better with you, if I included a smiley - it was supposed to lighten the mood:

Join the rEVolution!

MTrauman

ER1,


You may have mentioned but what country are you located within Europe?


Is the Model S priced about the same as the MB S Class in your country?


What are gas prices like in your country? Here in the US they have been creeping up a bit but they are around $2.75 a gallon for premium gas.


Here in the US my MB dealer and their customer service are second to none. Like with your Tesla my MB dealer will wash my car every time I come in. Sounds like your MB dealer did not do that for you. But then again, my Acura dealer will wash my wife's Acura MDX every time the car is there as well. Come to think of it, the last time I had my Ford F150 pickup truck at the Ford dealer they washed it to. My point is, in the US the best dealers take care of their customers. MY local MB dealer is listed as one of the "Best of the Best" MB dealers in the US by MBUSA. So my experience (sales and service) with MB has been absolutely second to none over the past 25 years. Heck in PA where I live you can buy a Tesla here in the Pittsburgh area but one has to go to Ohio to get it serviced--about 200 miles from where I live while there are multiple MB dealers within 25 miles of my house.

PeterUbers

Excellent points

PeterUbers

Wow... This is eye opening

And it's not the unicorn that some claim it is

- range dropped significantly and unpredictably in winter cold
- touchscreen less responsive in cold (not just a tesla thing obviously) and laggy touchscreen
- 493 hp is the total output rather than the 691hp some claimed for bragging rights
- rain leaking into cabin
- slow windows in cold


Oh well it can only get better

ER1

I'm from Finland. The S class costs about the same as a Model S, but of course it greatly depends on the S class engine type (AMG/non-AMG, 4matic/RWD) and the motor type of the Model S. What are you getting at?

Gas prices are high, as they are almost everywhere in Europe. Of course I am aware that in the US gas prices are much lower than here in Finland (we pay about 1.4 euros per liter) and electricity is quite cheap (10 cents per kWh). So cost-wise gas cars are at an advantage in the US.

Compared with my previous S class, I calculated that with my P85D I save approximately 5000+ euros per year in gas costs, insurance costs, taxes, maintenance costs, warranty costs etc. So in addition to all of the other positives of the Model S, it's also much cheaper to run. But even if the Tesla would cost more than the S class to run, I would still take the P85D.

ER1

Yes it can. Let me list just a few problems with my CLS 55 AMG during the 2.5 years I owned it:

1. The driver's window fractured when I rolled it down one time. It was sure nice to drive to the service with the window down in -20C weather in the middle of winter.
2. The navigation system malfunctioned, the GPS location was incorrect.
3. The electric boot got stuck.
4. The 12V battery died 2 times.
5. Check engine light came on once.
6. Keyless go failed on two door handles.
7. During one of the repairs, a mechanic scratched my wooden decorative panel.
etc. etc.

My luck was that it was a certified "Junge Sterne" car bought directly from Mercedes in Germany, but the warranty did not cover everything. Without the warranty, all of the repairs would have amounted to well over 5000 euros. My CLS was in the shop countless times and it was my most unreliable car to date. In comparison, my both Model S's have been problem-free except for the handle problem. With my S class, I only had one check engine light problem, one keyless go handle failure, and one webasto remote control failure.

Every brand has problems, but for example Mercedes has an approximately 100 years head start, so one would think they would have figured out the problems by now? Yet they haven't. Tesla is a new company and the Model S is their first larger production batch car, so at least I am ready to give them a bit of a break, although I haven't had to. The build quality of a 2013 Model S is completely different when compared to newer 2015-2016 built cars.

Tesla is the only one that provided me with a loaner car free-of-charge and no questions asked. It is also the only one that cleaned my car inside-out (wash AND vacuum cleaning) free-of-charge. There's a reason why Tesla has #1 customer satisfaction (98%), and I am one of them.

MTrauman

Hold your horses! No one called your baby ugly!


Why is it that Tesla owners have to throw ***** in defending THEIR car company? I am not going to defend MB or any car company for that matter. Facts are facts! But why do you have to throw your MB CLS 55 under the bus when it comes to your beloved Tesla? It is because Tesla followers don't like any negative comments about their Teslas. This is very very odd. This is the one reason I will not buy a Tesla (I will wait for MB to buy them and put the Tesla drive train in my S Class). Another is that I do not think the company will survive in its current form. They are burning too much cash. Reminds me of the Fisker car company. If I recall Fisker took US Govt money and made their cars in Finland and angered many American taxpayers since Fisker stated he would build Fisker cars in Delaware in the US but that did not happen. I think I have this right but since you are from Finland you may enlighten me a bit. They went out of business. Will Tesla follow but with a bigger fall?


Clearly there are country differences. Most MB dealers in the US provide loaner cars free of charge as well as washing and vacuuming free of charge.

ER1

MTrauman - I was not the one who started it (not you, but some here should look at the mirror) and I am stating facts just like PeterUbers. If PeterUbers feels the need to point out defects/problems and throw the Model S "under the bus", I expect mutual objectivity, since he seems to try to insinuate that a Model S is a particularly unreliable car. I would say based on my experience that a Model S is at least as reliable as an AMG car or better.

It is not true that I don't like any negative comments about Tesla. I have no stake in this except that I now own a Tesla car. We don't have any car companies here in Finland, but we actually do manufacture A model Mercedes cars in Uusikaupunki. Yes, we also used to manufacture the Fisker Karma. Tesla is NOT my car company, but I feel the need to defend it against unfounded claims and ****. IMHO Tesla is doing things differently in a positive manner compared with other old established car brands and they deserve a thumbs up. Established brands don't need it, but it is nice to hear that US MB dealers have good service.

I sure hope Tesla will not fail and not just because of my car purchase. I thought Americans as patriots would favor Tesla as a US company? I am surprised how much anti-Tesla talk there is on the Internet and it is mostly based on unfounded opinions and deliberate spreading of misinformation due to short or other interests. I personally want to counter this with some objective real-world experience and perspective having owned a wide range of German cars and now a Model S. I am not a critic-free fanboi as many Tesla owners seem to be, but I think the Model S is an excellent product I am happy to say it. If my opinion changes or if I have bad experiences (such as the handle breaking), I will say it also.

ER1

What I don't like about discussions regarding Tesla and Tesla cars is that it's not like people ask: "Oh, you own a Model S/Tesla - how do you like it (compared to your CLS/S class etc.)?" But rather it is more like: "Oh you own a Model S/Tesla - has it caught fire yet/exploded/broken down..." or whatever "fact" they think they know better about Tesla and Tesla cars or based on their subjective interests (working for the oil industry or established car companies or something similar that Tesla is disrupting). I think such comments are childish, ignorant, condescending and just plain mean. It's like I'd ask about your new Mercedes A class: "has it rolled over yet?"

I am the first one to welcome intelligent discussion and criticism (let's face it, Tesla has plenty of work to do), but let's keep it objective and on a fact basis please. I wanted to share my thoughts and experiences, because I truly think that a Model S or X is a good alternative for a Mercedes or any other German/luxury car. I hope that Mercedes, Audi or BMW would make a real Tesla competitor some day. I would love to see a fully-electric high-end powertrain (comparable to a P85D) in a German car some day, not some crappy VW e-golf. It's sad that MB did not continue developing the electric SLS AMG, that could have been one heck of a powertrain in a CLS, E or S class AMG. It's also sad that there seems to be no real competition for Tesla until around 2020, only paper releases (like the Porsche Mission E) of "Tesla killers" so far.

fathom6

The irony is how Tesla owners like to compare it to an MB S-class as if the particular comparison is some obsession. Day and night they are busy in creating irresponsible charts with exaggerated claims. They wouldn't compare Tesla to a Ford Taurus, Hyndai xy (whatever those models are called), heck they dont even like to compare it to a Nissan Leaf which is in the exact same class as a Model S. Is this some kind of an orphanage dilemma?

Truth be told, Chevy Volt is a better car than a Model S. The unreliable range calculator, a nightmare of owning Model S (where you never know if you'll be stuck in the middle of a deserted road). Chevy Volt gives you the resilience - ability to not be stuck, not put your family and kids in harm ... GM cannot/would not do that, because it is a professional company, bound by a century tradition upholding to certain moral values. And here comes Tesla, with tall exaggerated claims, huster and buster, irresponsible marketing, and with their hustler CEO (Elon Musk) has the Tesla activists cheering for him ... its just so pathetic.

ER1

Based on this post and his post history where he has registered just to bash Tesla and Tesla owners, since all of his posts are 100% anti-Tesla, fathom6 is a perfect sad example of someone who lacks objectivity and class in this matter and in his posts. Probably someone who has never even seen a Tesla, but has to resort to insults and provocation to spread purpose-driven misinformation. Probably someone, who can't even afford an S-class or a Tesla. Someone who clearly has a personal agenda against Tesla and Tesla owners - probably lost money on shorts or works for GM based on the statements below:

Yes, GM certainly and undeniably is a company with century-long traditions of maximizing profits causing injuries and death to hundreds of people...

http://blog.caranddriver.com/gm-igni...-274-injuries/
https://www.theguardian.com/business...ignition-fault
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm...A2D02U20140314
http://www.cheatsheet.com/automobile...tml/?a=viewall

vs.

http://www.autotrader.com/car-news/t...y-score-213356

QED. I rest my case.

syswei

I think ER1 is being reasonably balanced. Unlike many people posting on this thread, he actually has extensive first-hand experience with both MB and Tesla product.

Welcome to the W222 section of the forum, ER1!

syswei

Moral values? I presume you're being sarcastic, but if not, you seem to be forgetting the ingnition switch scandal...article.

Going back much further in time, wasn't it a GM bean-counter who decided it would be more "cost effective" to have customers, rather than GM, perform final quality control checks?

syswei

One thing I like about the Tesla sales experience is that once you put down a refundable $2500 deposit, you have a week before the order is locked in, and can borrow a loaner for a day or a weekend for an extended test drive. We put over 200 miles on one over a weekend. Individual MB dealers might do the same for a good customer, but afaik ALL Tesla locations, at least in the US, will do that for ANY customer.

absent

As I said before, it makes more sense to buy Tesla kind of car in countries like Norway or Finland, where the gas is still outrageously expensive (compared to US), with great gov. incentives and sale price comparable only to S-Class used for airport taxi only (underpowered diesels).
In US, with cheap gas, excellent MB service (equivalent loaner for me, and detail every time) and equal price of S550 4Matic (loaded as standard vs ROW), Tesla is starting to make less attractive proposition with it's mediocre fit and finish or sub $50k interior.

.....and it is true, Tesla owners have a very thin skin indeed.....

ER1

Thank you syswei for your kind comments. That's exactly what I wanted to offer - my humble opinion about MB vs. Tesla based on my real-world experiences owning both cars and being a car enthusiast that enjoys the best high-end cars.

IMHO, a Model S is a very real alternative for even the new S class, and I am proof of that. I was originally shopping for either a 4.0TT Audi S8, W222 S550 4matic or CLS63 AMG 4matic, but after test driving the Tesla it was such a positively different experience that I had to have it. I've never looked back and never regretted my decision. Only the interior and some amenities I listed earlier are something I miss from the Audi S8 or S class, but the Model S is a futuristic car that grows on you.

absent - we have absolutely zero incentives here in Finland to buy a Tesla. Norway is a completely different story. Actually it would have been cheaper for me to buy a used or new Audi S8, S550 4matic or CLS63 AMG than a P85D. Only a W222 S63 would be more expensive. At over 160.000 euros my Tesla Model S P85D is the most expensive car I have ever bought and I would never have paid so much for the other gas cars I listed. The Tesla is just overall a more fun car to drive (again, my opinion) and I think it's worth every penny. As an example, I actually took a 2-hour pointless cruise around town last week in my Tesla just to enjoy the exceptional magic carpet ride and rollercoaster feeling and enjoying the silence with the panorama roof open. I have never done that (doing pointless extra driving) in any of my previous cars, not even the Porsche. No other car feels like the electric Tesla. You have to experience it yourself, and I fell in love with it. Based on 400,000+ reservations for the Model 3, many agree with me. I understand and respect that everyone does not feel the same as long as it is based on one's opinion and/or facts, not prejudice and purpose-driven FUD. A gas car still has some positives such as a longer range for non-stop driving, but for my purposes the 400+ km range of the Model S is sufficient and superchargers are actually very convenient and make long trips relaxing.

MTrauman

ER1,


Thanks for your comments.


Your comments are interesting to read and backs up my feelings as to why I would not buy a Tesla Model S today although I am interested in buying an all electric car (just put the electric powered motor that the Model S has in the MB S Class and I am a buyer now)--WINK WINK Mercedes Benz JUST BUY TESLA.


It is not the Tesla Model S itself that people "fall in love" with but rather the "experience of driving" an all electric car that has tremendous power "off the line". Tesla the company has to get credit for this as people are excited about owning an all electric car. Back in the 1920s almost 1/3 of all cars in New York City were electric and here we are in 2016 with Tesla reviving a dead concept of an all electric car. The issue for me is I do not believe Tesla will survive in its current form and what happens IF AND WHEN the mainstream car companies get into the all electric car full force? Would you want to own a Fisker now since the company is not in existence?


Tesla is just to "early stage" for me in owning their cars. They have proved the concept of an all electric car is viable but there are too many things going against the company such as the infrastructure compared to gas stations. Plus I do not want to help fund the R&D of the electric car.


ADDED: I AM GLAD THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE BUYING THE TESLA CARS BECAUSE IT MEANS SOMEDAY THE MB S CLASS MAY BENEFIT FROM AN ALL ELECTRIC MOTOR LIKE THE ONE IN THE MODEL S. SO KEEP BUYING THOSE TELSAS TO FUND THE R&D.

ER1

MTrauman - I'm not sure why you keep mentioning Fisker and the Fisker Karma. I never would have bought a Fisker/Fisker Karma and I see zero resemblance between Fisker/Fisker Karma and Tesla/the Model S. Are you aware that Fisker Karma was NOT an electric car, but actually a hybrid? I like what Tesla is doing and that it is shaking the established players. I for one am happy to support the underdog, David vs. Goliath. Tesla has manufactured one h*ll of a car with the Model S and a P85D/P90D offers exceptional value for money especially performance-wise. I do understand why someone would choose an MB S class over a Model S, but I personally wouldn't at this point. The Model S is a modern, high-tech 21th century spaceship, the S class is the best of what 20th century tech offers including a very luxurious interior. It's similar to that some prefer a traditional, old-school Nokia/Blackberry phone, but I prefer a modern, high-tech iPhone/Android phone = the Model S. I admit I might be intrigued if there were an S class with the electric Tesla P85D/P90D powertrain or something comparable. But it's not just that. I truly believe Tesla is trying to make a bigger moral difference in sustainable transport, exceptional safety, OTA updates etc. and I want to support their work. What you mentioned about 1920s electric cars is really not comparable to the electric and battery technology of today. Even yesterday's electric/battery tech was not really a competing compelling solution compared with gas cars. Actually, even today and probably for the next 2-3 years no other manufacturer in my opinion makes a better electric car than Tesla nor one that I would want to buy. But there are also many political and money-based reasons why things worked out like they did with electric cars, electric trams and trains etc. in the US and at least the oil industry had something to do with it. You might want to see the movie Who Killed the Electric Car and the Revenge of the Electric Car.

All the best to you folks...

MTrauman

Like I said before--Fisker died. I predict Tesla will not survive in it's current form.

MTrauman

YEP--this is where the Tesla Kool Aid comes in!
This is where I differ with the Tesla Fanboys. I pay money for a car. I do not buy a car to change the world. At this point, Musk is trying to change the world with your money. He won't get my money to change the world. I give him credit where credit is due but I am buying a car here and not trying to change the world with my car buying habits!

MTrauman

The Tesla Fanboys better start reading the technical literature before spending too much money on electric cars. The Tesla fans better start to understand where Lithium comes from and how much is available in the world.

Below is an excerpt of some information about Lithium and why many experts believe electric cars are doomed especially in mass scale. I am just not willing to take the leep when I am buying a car.


Vikström, H., Davidsson, S., Höök, M. 2013). Lithium availability and future production outlooks. Applied Energy, 110(10): 252-266.

[ Extracts from this 28-page paper. It is by far the best paper explaining lithium reserves, lithium chemistry, recycling, political implications, and more. I’ve left out the charts, graphs, references, and much of the text, to see them go to the original paper in the link above.
I personally don’t think that electric cars will ever be viable because battery development is too slow, see my post at Who Killed the Electric Car. The most up-to-date version of this, and several other chapters on utility-scale energy storage (also very dependent on lithium), and the electrification of heavy-duty transportation, is in my book When Trains Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation.
In my book, here are some excerpts about lithium and energy storage:
Li-ion energy storage batteries are more expensive than PbA or NaS, can be charged and discharged only a discrete number of times, can fail or lose capacity if overheated, and the cost of preventing overheating is expensive. Lithium does not grow on trees. The amount of lithium needed for utility-scale storage is likely to deplete known resources (Vazquez, S., et al. 2010. Energy storage systems for transport and grid applications. IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics 57(12): 3884).
To provide enough energy for 1 day of storage for the United states, li-ion batteries would cost $11.9 trillion dollars, take up 345 square miles and weigh 74 million tons (DOE/EPRI. 2013. Electricity storage handbook in collaboration with NRECA. USA: Sandia National Laboratories and Electric Power Research Institute)
Barnhart et al. (2013) looked at how much materials and energy it would take to make batteries that could store up to 12 hours of average daily world power demand, 25.3 TWh. Eighteen months of world-wide primary energy production would be needed to mine and manufacture these batteries, and material production limits were reached for many minerals even when energy storage devices got all of the world’s production (with zinc, sodium, and sulfur being the exceptions). Annual production by mass would have to double for lead, triple for lithium, and go up by a factor of 10 or more for cobalt and vanadium, driving up prices. The best to worst in terms of material availability are: CAES, NaS, ZnBr, PbA, PHS, Li-ion, and VRB (Barnhart, C., et al. 2013. On the importance of reducing the energetic and material demands of electrical energy storage. Energy Environment Science 2013(6): 1083–1092). ]
Abstract
Lithium is a highly interesting metal, in part due to the increasing interest in lithium-ion batteries. Several recent studies have used different methods to estimate whether the lithium production can meet an increasing demand, especially from the transport sector, where lithium-ion batteries are the most likely technology for electric cars. The reserve and resource estimates of lithium vary greatly between different studies and the question whether the annual production rates of lithium can meet a growing demand is seldom adequately explained. This study presents a review and compilation of recent estimates of quantities of lithium available for exploitation and discusses the uncertainty and differences between these estimates. Also, mathematical curve fitting models are used to estimate possible future annual production rates. This estimation of possible production rates are compared to a potential increased demand of lithium if the International Energy Agency’s Blue Map Scenarios are fulfilled regarding electrification of the car fleet. We find that the availability of lithium could in fact be a problem for fulfilling this scenario if lithium-ion batteries are to be used. This indicates that other battery technologies might have to be implemented for enabling an electrification of road transports.
Highlights:

• Review of reserves, resources and key properties of 112 lithium deposits
• Discussions of widely diverging results from recent lithium supply estimates
• Forecasting future lithium production by resource-constrained models
• Exploring implications for future deployment of electric cars

Introduction
Global transportation mainly relies on one single fossil resource, namely petroleum, which supplies 95% of the total energy [1]. In fact, about 62% of all world oil consumption takes place in the transport sector [2]. Oil prices have oscillated dramatically over the last few years, and the price of oil reached $100 per barrel in January 2008, before skyrocketing to nearly $150/barrel in July 2008. A dramatic price collapse followed in late 2008, but oil prices have at present time returned to over $100/barrel. Also, peak oil concerns, resulting in imminent oil production limitations, have been voiced by various studies [3–6].
It has been found that continued oil dependence is environmentally, economically and socially unsustainable [7].
The price uncertainty and decreasing supply might result in severe challenges for different transporters. Nygren et al. [8] showed that even the most optimistic oil production forecasts implied pessimistic futures for the aviation industry. Curtis [9] found that globalization may be undermined by peak oil’s effect on transportation costs and reliability of freight.
Barely 2% of the world electricity is used by transportation [2], where most of this is made up by trains, trams, and trolley buses.
A high future demand of Li for battery applications may arise if society choses to employ Li-ion technologies for a decarbonization of the road transport sector.
Batteries are at present time the second most common use, but are increasing rapidly as the use of li-ion batteries for portable electronics [12], as well as electric and hybrid cars, are becoming more frequent. For example, the lithium consumption for batteries in the U.S increased with 194 % from 2005 to 2010 [12]. Relatively few academic studies have focused on the very abundance of raw materials needed to supply a potential increase in Li demand from transport sector [13]. Lithium demand is growing and it is important to investigate whether this could lead to a shortfall in the future.

[My comment: utility scale energy storage batteries in commercial production are lithium, and if this continues, this sector alone would quickly consume all available lithium supplies: see Barnhart, C., et al. 2013. On the importance of reducing the energetic and material demands of electrical energy storage. Energy Environment Science 2013(6): 1083–1092.]
Aim of this study
Recently, a number of studies have investigated future supply prospects for lithium [13–16]. However, these studies reach widely different results in terms of available quantities, possible production trajectories, as well as expected future demand. The most striking difference is perhaps the widely different estimates for available resources and reserves, where different numbers of deposits are included and different types of resources are assessed. It has been suggested that mineral resources will be a future constraint for society [17], but a great deal of this debate is often spent on the concept of geological availability, which can be presented as the size of the tank. What is frequently not reflected upon is that society can only use the quantities that can be extracted at a certain pace and be delivered to consumers by mining operations, which can be described as the tap. The key concept here is that the size of the tank and the size of the tap are two fundamentally different things.
This study attempts to present a comprehensive review of known lithium deposits and their estimated quantities of lithium available for exploitation and discuss the uncertainty and differences among published studies, in order to bring clarity to the subject. The estimated reserves are then used as a constraint in a model of possible future production of lithium and the results of the model are compared to possible future demand from an electrification of the car fleet. The forecasts are based on open, public data and should be used for estimating long term growth and trends. This is not a substitute for economical short-term prognoses, but rather a complementary vision.
Data sources
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has been particularly useful for obtaining production data series, but also the Swedish Geological Survey (SGU) and the British Geological Survey (BGS) deserves honourable mention for providing useful material. Kushnir and Sandén [18], Tahil [19, 20] along with many other recent lithium works have also been useful. Kesler et al. [21] helped to provide a broad overview of general lithium geology.

Information on individual lithium deposits has been compiled from numerous sources, primarily building on the tables found in [13–16]. In addition, several specialized articles about individual deposits have been used, for instance [22–26]. Public industry reports and annual yearbooks from mining operators and lithium producers, such as SQM [27], Roskill [28] or Talison Lithium [29], also helped to create a holistic data base.
In this study, we collected information on global lithium deposits. Country of occurrence, deposit type, main mineral, and lithium content were gathered as well as published estimates for reserves and resources. Some deposits had detailed data available for all parameters, while others had very little information available. Widely diverging estimates for reserves and resources could sometimes be found for the same deposit, and in such cases the full interval between the minimum and maximum estimates is presented. Deposits without reserve or resource estimates are included in the data set, but do not contribute to the total. Only available data and information that could be found in the public and academic spheres were compiled in this study. It is likely that undisclosed and/or proprietary data could contribute to the world’s lithium volume but due to data availability no conclusions on to which extent could be made.
Geological overview