China starts spin into economic mess

[RobertG]

Originally Posted by hkmb You're so middle of the road I'm surprised you haven't been thrown off this and the other board for being a Communist. ? They have not thrown you out Booking it, means driving like you stole it

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[mleskovar]

Originally Posted by hkmb

... he managed to crash into one of the only white guys in Sydney who could speak to them. ......

Did you trash talk him? I bet he was more surprised than you.

[hkmb]

Originally Posted by RobertG

They have not thrown you out

No, but I've been suspended enough times...

Originally Posted by RobertG

Booking it, means driving like you stole it

Ah. Thank you. In Australia, that would be "fanging it" if you're driving like that on a particular occasion, and "hooning" if you do it all the time.

In Britain, I had a 1979 Peugeot 305. So I had no need for such words.

[hkmb]

Originally Posted by mleskovar

Did you trash talk him? I bet he was more surprised than you.

I was very nice to him - I felt really sorry for him. He admitted responsibility straight away, and he looked really sad/guilty/scared.

To be honest, I think he was more surprised that the person he crashed into was nice to him than that the person he crashed into was a white guy who spoke Chinese. Honestly, I think you're more likely to crash into a white Chinese speaker in Sydney than you are to crash into someone who'll be nice to you. He was lucky he didn't crash into a racist bogan with a V8 Commodore Ute, a Southern Cross sticker in the window and an Australia-shaped "F--- off! We're full!" bumper sticker (yes, unfortunately there is such a thing). Then it could have turned nasty.

And in China, if there's a crash, then there's some shouting, and then there's a fight. There are cafes in China which do very well out of being situated next to dangerous junctions: people will sit at the outside tables, drink beer, and wait to watch a crash and a fight.

(To understand driving in China, have a look at http://beijingcream.com/2012/05/the-...ina-a-diagram/. Everyone I know who's lived in Chiina thinks it's a perfect description.)

[Glyn M Ruck]

Yes ~ we insist that all Laowai or Dabizi have a driver in China.

[Red Marko]

Originally Posted by hkmb

No, but I've been suspended enough times...

You - bad boy!
No Fortune Cookie for you!

[Red Marko]

Originally Posted by hkmb

(To understand driving in China, have a look at http://beijingcream.com/2012/05/the-...ina-a-diagram/. Everyone I know who's lived in Chiina thinks it's a perfect description.)

Isn't true that the cop in China is a prosecutor/defense attorney/jury/judge/executioner in one person?

[hkmb]

Originally Posted by Glyn M Ruck

Yes ~ we insist that all Laowai or Dabizi have a driver in China.

Yes, I drove in Hong Kong quite happily, but I didn't drive in the Mainland at all: it was just too scary.

[hkmb]

Originally Posted by Red Marko

Isn't true that the cop in China is a prosecutor/defense attorney/jury/judge/executioner in one person?

Absolutely not. Do you think people would drive like that if that were the case? People really don't care about the Police when they're driving.

Actually, the opposite is true: the Police generally can't be bothered to do anything (or, if I'm being polite, don't have the resources). So when I work on criminal cases - fraud and intellectual property infringement, for example - my staff and I have to do the investigation: we have to go through bank accounts, and track phone calls, and follow trucks, and s--t like that, which should be the Police's job. We have to prepare a complete case, and then present it to the Police, and say "Right, these people have committed these crimes: here's all the evidence. They will be in this place at this time. Please arrest them: if you don't, I'll go to the Central government and tell them that you didn't."

[RobertG]

Originally Posted by hkmb

Absolutely not. Do you think people would drive like that if that were the case? People really don't care about the Police when they're driving.

Actually, the opposite is true: the Police generally can't be bothered to do anything (or, if I'm being polite, don't have the resources). So when I work on criminal cases - fraud and intellectual property infringement, for example - my staff and I have to do the investigation: we have to go through bank accounts, and track phone calls, and follow trucks, and s--t like that, which should be the Police's job. We have to prepare a complete case, and then present it to the Police, and say "Right, these people have committed these crimes: here's all the evidence. They will be in this place at this time. Please arrest them: if you don't, I'll go to the Central government and tell them that you didn't."

Wow! like CIA?

[Glyn M Ruck]

Originally Posted by hkmb

Yes, I drove in Hong Kong quite happily, but I didn't drive in the Mainland at all: it was just too scary.

Yeah ~ HK is fine.

[hkmb]

Originally Posted by RobertG

Wow! like CIA?

Not really: I think the CIA deals with rather more exciting stuff than counterfeit electronics and pseudo-Nigerian scams.

And our findings don't get overruled and hidden by the President.

[MRAMG1]

Originally Posted by hkmb

Not really: I think the CIA deals with rather more exciting stuff than counterfeit electronics and pseudo-Nigerian scams.

And our findings don't get overruled and hidden by the President.

Actually HK, the CIA DID get involved with a Nigerian scam for me. And Yes, I did not get scamed, I just wanted to get the idiot that tried

And they did

[MG]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonch...-out-of-money/

China Is Running Out Of Money


Last week’s release of disappointing economic and trade data for July has, predictably, renewed calls for additional stimulus. In May, Beijing ramped up its support for the economy, and observers had expected activity to pick up by last month.

Why has the economy so far failed to respond? There are various reasons, but perhaps the most important is that the country is running out of money for stimulus.


At first glance, that proposition seems preposterous. After all, the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, held $3.24 trillion of foreign currency reserves at the end of the first half of this year. Yet foreign currency, no matter how plentiful, has limited usefulness in a local currency crisis. In any event, the PBOC’s foreign currency holdings are almost evenly matched with renminbi-denominated liabilities that were incurred to acquire all those dollars, pounds, euros, and yen. As a result, the central bank cannot use the reserves without driving itself deep—actually, deeper—into insolvency.

The recent slight decline in the value of the renminbi versus the dollar has decreased the amount of the PBOC’s liabilities in relations to its assets and has therefore marginally strengthened its balance sheet, but the central bank still does not have the flexibility to use its reserves as it pleases. Therefore, a massive foreign currency injection into the economy, even if it would work, is not in the cards.

Nonetheless, the central bank could, as it did beginning in 2003, inject a limited amount of reserves into the country’s state banks to permit them to lend more money. The last stimulus program, announced at the end of 2008, created growth primarily because the state banks, at Beijing’s direction, embarked on an extraordinary lending spree. In 2009, for instance, new local currency lending reached a record 9.59 trillion yuan, just about double that of 2008. The loan-a-thon continued in 2010 and 2011 as the economy got hooked on easy credit.

The lending spree has ended, however. The state banks cannot fund all the hundreds of new projects—500 according to one count—that Beijing and local governments have announced in recent months. Why? Many of the loans central technocrats forced bankers to make since 2008 will never be repaid.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission claimed the banks’ nonperforming loan ratio at the end of the first quarter was 0.9%, but even the regulator expresses doubts about its own figure. And the rapid buildup of bad loans since the end of 2008 will have consequences.

As predicted, the government mandated lending from private institutions has destroyed liquidity in the face of zero local demand for the projects being funded. Non performing loans are simply strangling the banks and the government's answer to the failing economy is "MORE OF THE SAME".

I would expect to see a wave of bank nationalization next, rather than open failures.

[whiteongrey]

Just Pray they are not broke because then they won't be buying US debt in record amounts...then there won't be any money to further stimulate the flat broke and failing US economy.

I would not worry too much - in addition to the potential of copying the USA re "nationalizing banks" they may also copy the "extend and pretend" practiced by all major US banks on 100s BNs of large loans...which makes all problems disappear for years!!

Just read the German exports to China numbers, especially luxury car makers, because if these keep rising by double digits every year there is nothing at all to worry about.

Also consider is the massive grey / black market in private lending which is a huge driver of private wealth generation and massively under reported. These loans have excellent servicing records because the penalties for non payment are far greater then a poor credit record...

[hkmb]

First, I do not understand the new multiquote thing.

And do not get me started on what this new layout has done to my Android phone.

Now, on to the subject..

I love it when people who think they somehow know about China start spouting off about stuff to demonstrate their level of knowledge. I've said before that one of the great weaknesses of Western observers is that they apply their own norms to an economy that does not work in the same way. And that's why they get things so wrong: they think that the principles that apply in the US somehow apply in China too.

Obviously, I could pick out a million examples of this, but I'll go for just one.

Originally Posted by MG

I would expect to see a wave of bank nationalization next, rather than open failures.

Really? A wave of nationalisations? Like what happened with RBS and LloydsTSB in Britain, where the government took majority stakes in the banks in order to prevent them from failing?

That sounds like a great idea! It's worked in Britain! And it's rumoured to be happening in Germany soon! If the Brits and the Germans can do it, surely the Chinese can? After all, their economies are, like, the same, aren't they?

Answer me this, MG.

How, exactly, is the Chinese government going to nationalise the banks? And what effect will this have on the Chinese economy?

No, go on. You're the expert on China. Tell me. Because I'd be fascinated to hear this one.

And please, no copying and pasting from Forbes or the WSJ or anything. I'd like your opinion on why the Chinese government will nationalise the banks, how they'll do it, and what the effect will be on the Chinese economy. Because you really have me intrigued here. Let me learn at the feet of the mighty.

[RobertG]

Originally Posted by hkmb

First, I do not understand the new multiquote thing.

And do not get me started on what this new layout has done to my Android phone.

Now, on to the subject..

I love it when people who think they somehow know about China start spouting off about stuff to demonstrate their level of knowledge. I've said before that one of the great weaknesses of Western observers is that they apply their own norms to an economy that does not work in the same way. And that's why they get things so wrong: they think that the principles that apply in the US somehow apply in China too.

Obviously, I could pick out a million examples of this, but I'll go for just one.



Really? A wave of nationalisations? Like what happened with RBS and LloydsTSB in Britain, where the government took majority stakes in the banks in order to prevent them from failing?

That sounds like a great idea! It's worked in Britain! And it's rumoured to be happening in Germany soon! If the Brits and the Germans can do it, surely the Chinese can? After all, their economies are, like, the same, aren't they?

Answer me this, MG.

How, exactly, is the Chinese government going to nationalise the banks? And what effect will this have on the Chinese economy?

No, go on. You're the expert on China. Tell me. Because I'd be fascinated to hear this one.

And please, no copying and pasting from Forbes or the WSJ or anything. I'd like your opinion on why the Chinese government will nationalise the banks, how they'll do it, and what the effect will be on the Chinese economy. Because you really have me intrigued here. Let me learn at the feet of the mighty.

when youre out of your job whoose feet will you kiss?

[hkmb]

Originally Posted by RobertG

when youre out of your job whoose feet will you kiss?

OK, RobertG. You can tell me how this proposed bank nationalisation is going to happen too. Same questions that I asked MG: you clearly both know what you're talking about, so I am keen to learn.

[RobertG]

iT'S not the point of us telling you something new, it's the question of what if all your knowledge being off?

[Glyn M Ruck]

Originally Posted by hkmb

First, I do not understand the new multiquote thing.

And do not get me started on what this new layout has done to my Android phone.

Now, on to the subject..

I love it when people who think they somehow know about China start spouting off about stuff to demonstrate their level of knowledge. I've said before that one of the great weaknesses of Western observers is that they apply their own norms to an economy that does not work in the same way. And that's why they get things so wrong: they think that the principles that apply in the US somehow apply in China too.

Obviously, I could pick out a million examples of this, but I'll go for just one.



Really? A wave of nationalisations? Like what happened with RBS and LloydsTSB in Britain, where the government took majority stakes in the banks in order to prevent them from failing?

That sounds like a great idea! It's worked in Britain! And it's rumoured to be happening in Germany soon! If the Brits and the Germans can do it, surely the Chinese can? After all, their economies are, like, the same, aren't they?

Answer me this, MG.

How, exactly, is the Chinese government going to nationalise the banks? And what effect will this have on the Chinese economy?

No, go on. You're the expert on China. Tell me. Because I'd be fascinated to hear this one.

And please, no copying and pasting from Forbes or the WSJ or anything. I'd like your opinion on why the Chinese government will nationalise the banks, how they'll do it, and what the effect will be on the Chinese economy. Because you really have me intrigued here. Let me learn at the feet of the mighty.

[RobertG]

Originally Posted by hkmb

you clearly both know what you're talking about, so I am keen to learn.

In business, there is nothing clear, of all people you should know that, right?

[hkmb]

Originally Posted by RobertG

iT'S not the point of us telling you something new, it's the question of what if all your knowledge being off?

Exactly.

[hkmb]

Originally Posted by RobertG

In business, there is nothing clear, of all people you should know that, right?

Some things are clearer than others, RobertG.

[RobertG]

Originally Posted by hkmb

Some things are clearer than others, RobertG.

Yes, when your told to clear your desk.

[hkmb]

Originally Posted by RobertG

Yes, when your told to clear your desk.

Who's going to tell me that? My boss?

Anyway, let's wait and see what MG has to tell us.