BMW Sept sales - what happened?
 

So I posted this on one of the BMW forums recently and I didn't get much of a response so I'll try over here. I mostly was hoping for someone with some insight into the cause of the dramatic fall in sales in one months time on the mentioned models, but I am most interested in the 5er (as compared to the E and other competing models):

Just browsing good car bad car and the Sept sales numbers are in and I was surprised! Did something happen that I am not aware of?

_Rank______________________ ytd______ytd '13____chng____sept 14___sept 13___chng
#205 BMW 1-Series & 2-Series ³__5,303____4,894_____8.4%_____740______468_____58 .1 %
#40 BMW 3-Series & 4-Series ³__94,445____77,921____21.2%___12,814____8,512____ 50.5%
#87 BMW 5-Series___________ 39,168_____38,681____1.3%____1,407____3,574____-60.6%
#189 BMW 6-Series___________ 6,635_____7,034____-5.7%_____450______643____-30.0%
#193 BMW 7-Series___________ 6,264_____8,573___-26.9%_____480_____1,723___-72.1%

Of course the 3 & 4 series sales are incredible, but what about the 5's 6's and 7's? In one month the 5 series went from 4,468 units to 1,407 (about 68%), also down 60% from last year. Isn't this unprecedented for BMW? By way of comparison, Audi and Lexus sold more A6s and GSs, Mercedes sold more than 3 times as many E's and Cadillac sold 62% more CTSs and 40% more XTSs! Has Audi and Cadillac ever sold more competing models to the 5er in a month?

X's are doing fine compared to last year, well except for the X6 which sold a grand total of 19 units (down 95%).

I am really not trying to bash BMW, they make great cars. Personal preference is one thing, but it really doesn't explain the fall, I am thinking that something happened. Then again, I am not a sales and marketing guru.

I think it is just tough competition for the 5 and 6 series. For the 7 series the car is getting old and the competitors - especially the S-class are just better.

Maybe BMW cuts its incentives.

More people like Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, Jaguar or Lexus?:confused::nix:

I for one went to buy a 535i and was treated like crap cause I went wearing shorts and a tshirt. Two hours later picked up the CLS. They lost my business, but I'm glad as I much rather have the CLS

Perhpas the 3 and 4 are stealing sales from the 5? It is a concern that I am sure MB has about the CLA stealing from "C" and "C" stealing from "E" in the future, rather than from competitiors.
Actually the YTD stats aren't that bad, only the Sep to Sep ones and that could be due to a lot of factors.
BMW has made some tremendous gains and no car companies continue to increase sales every month and every year forever. Also, what were the August sales? That has been the biggest sales month for auto industry this year and for several years.
Cadillac used to outsell MB, BMW, Audi and Lexus COMBINED. Back in Caddy's glory days.
One factor is that BMW appeals primarily to performance oriented drivers. MB appeals to luxury/performance drivers and Lexus appeals to luxury drivers. Some muddling in all of this though. MB still has a lot of cachet in the name, that BMW, Audi and even Lexus and Cadillac don't. Question is: who sells more cars each year?

MBUSA E Class Sept. Sales
 

E Class Sept.2014 sales were up by 14.4% over Sept. 2013; they outsold 5 Series by 36% or 1309 units. Too early to tell if the W205 is cannibalizing E Class sales.

Interesting that neither MB Canada nor MBUSA has released 2015 E Class pricing. There is still a large inventory of 2014s on dealer lots. 2015 Canadian E Class changes indicate that more goodies (Driving Assist pkg. and Satellite radio) will be included as standard !

Are these numbers reliable from good car bad car..?
May be they finished all incentives for this year and / or there are production constraints. As long as their profit margins are not squeezed and overall numbers are fine, they shouldn't be worried. We should try to ignore these minor blips in sales. :crazy:

Take it from a guy who just ditched the 5 series and got an E.

RELIABILITY!

I used to be at the dealer every month for one thing or another until I woke up one day and decided this will be the end of my suffering.

BTW, i had a 2012 5 series.

You had less patience than me. I had a 2008 535 that lived at the dealer. Once I hit 20,000 miles its started to be a regular at the dealer(s). I have persistent so - I kept it until the extended warranty period. When I had close $10,000 on work done under extended warranty, I finally pulled the plug.

Congratulations and welcome to the forum. Glad that you joined the MB family. Let us know more about your ride...May be start a separate thread since this thread is about BMW sales anyway. :zoom:.

I said bye-bye to my 550 after its last $5200 repair bill at 33K miles. This does not include the total transmission failure at 22K miles.


I love my 2014 E350 and I think the push by BMW to sell cars is catching up with them much like every other manufacturer that sacrifices quality for quantity.

great points, now that I think about it I am sure you are right about Cadillac back in the day so I'll adjust my question to "in the past 20ish years".

Your point about YTD not being bad is precisely why the Sept sales are such a surprise, at least to me. A drop of almost 70% in one month doesn't seem to be related to interest in a product, but more indicative of an incident of some sort. Lots of people seem to like 5ers (based on how many they sold this year so far) and apparently are willing to deal with whatever it takes to buy a BMW. However, in September they didn't all of a sudden. A big incentive drop could explain things but I don't really see that - you can still get a 2014 with a significant discount, and I checked a local dealer and they have 40 2014s in their inventory (and only 33 2015s) on line. I did notice that many advertised prices are not quite as aggressive, but I see plenty of 2014 5er ads for $10k off MSRP.

But still, weak incentives seems like a bit of a stretch for a huge sudden drop like this. To change the perspective a bit, assuming a $55k avg invoice price, we are talking about almost $170 million in expected revenue (assuming similar sales from Aug to Sept) disappearing in one month. An extra $1k in incentive would cost them about $3M on the bottom line. Sure $3M is a lot of money when talking about bottom line, but I expect it is nothing compared to how much it costs to set up production for 4,400ish sales but only sell 1,400.

To top it off, they didn't change the incentives significantly for October ($1k innov credit on 2015s). Not sure what to read into here if anything, but they sure aren't reacting.

E-classes are up 14.4% ytd, but down 13%+ for sept 13 vs 14. I guess this would seem to indicate that a drop from Aug to Sept isn't a surprise.

I believe that GCBC gets their numbers directly from each manufacturer. They have been around for quite some time and I see confirmation of their numbers in other publications - I should say I have never seen a discrepancy. I would also expect to see BMW publish their own report soon (but I haven't really looked much yet).

I hear you about the 7 and I agree competition is surely a factor. The 6 and 7 series have been down all year so I think your logic is right on there, but the 5er numbers are just super surprising to me.

Reliability has always been an issue with BMWs. But people seem to have been ok with it for whatever reason (at least up until last month on the 5 series).

Deutsche Welle just reported today that German exports have been very weak recently.They didn't go into detail but given that autos represent a huge portion of Germany's exports one could reasonably conclude that VW/Audi,MB,BMW and Porsche saw dips in sales.

5er: All those Mercedes E350 and GS350 deals are blowing away 5 series.


7er: People who drop that kind of money only buys the S-Class (raised the bar). The good side. Now 2014 7 series can be picked up for 8xx a month for a 740Li. Just under a grand for 750Li

Another one that switched...my car ate 24 fuel injectors before 60K! What I love about BMW is how acceptable it is to have to replace a water pump at 50K.

I don't regret making the switch at all. I especially love the higher hp :).

According to figures quoted by The Diesel Driver, E Class US sales for Sept. were up by 14.4%. Worldwide, YTD sales of E Class are up by 26.3%. In any event, the E is certainly outselling the 5 Series. Perhaps a reputation for reliability and better value for the dollar have a lot to do with the E's success ?

My 2012 BMWS 550xi has has two complete fuel injector replacements as well as the water pump, turbo coolant lines and turbo cooling pump. Car has probably spent a month out of its 2 1/2 years with me at the dealer's service department. My prior V8 BMWs (E39 540 and E60 550) were rock solid reliable. I feel sorry for the next owner of my current 550 given its poor reliability record.

My next car is not an F10 M5 but a 2015 E63 S. November production with January delivery.

This gen 5er has had this many times over. Some months they'll sell under 2K cars (I think even under 1K may have happened), then the next month something insane like 7K cars.

Really, what it comes down to is incentives, production, and model changeovers, as both the E and 5 are in plenty demand, yet at the same time, overproduced to where they have to get massive discounts to move. Thus, BMW is probably going through another model changeover glut, planned I'm sure, and then once '15's hit the floors, it'll be like the rush after a turbo lag. E's on the other hand get discounts you just can't find anywhere else, including from the 5 Series. 5's have gotten increasing discounts, as I'm sure the E's giveaways further prompt it, but the W212 can be leased for insanely cheap prices, which will move it more than any factors that many here buy their cars for. Though, it's a short-sighted thing, to try and keep numbers up by incentivizing the crap out of your especially bread and butter car/s. Margins go down, thus investments into future models suffer, thus brand cachet suffers and gets diluted, all while cars that were once venerable for their aspirational status, become non-aspirational as they're attainable by "everyone".

It's a dirty road both M-B and BMW are going down right now. Maybe the next gen E will have a closer control of supply/demand as the CLA has now entered the picture, allowing the E to regain being able to actually be valued by the market at the manufacturer suggested price. Same for the 5, though the 5 isn't quite as incentivized, unless things have recently dramatically changed.

Also, remember that the the E Class is two models, the 5 Series is one (5 GT doesn't count as nobody in their right mind acquires them). The E is essentially an E Sedan and Wagon (and AMG versions) along with what used to be the CLK, combined into one sales bracket.

On the other hand, I don't get why enthusiasts get so wrapped up in the business angle of things, i.e sales figures. In no way do higher sales justify a better car (if they did, then the current 5 for the first time every is blowing out the E Class in worldwide sales, even with E Coupe/Vert sales fudging the numbers upwards, which no before the W212 generation ever allowed the 5 Series to do).

As well, sales numbers have SO MUCH more to do than what enthusiasts buy their cars for (reliability, looks, drive, dynamics, chassis, balance, etc.). For mass market cars (upper luxury/sports car segments are a totally different story as they're more enthusiast driven) it's usually about what's cheapest, and badge preference. Unfortunately, BMW and Mercedes used to not play that game as much, but nowadays, it seems to be all they do. Engage in price wars and diminish the value (therefore destroy resale which does long term damage to brand perception) of their cars. I understand they have to do it, I guess, but as an enthusiast, it certainly doesn't make me think one is "better" than the other. Also, Mercedes has been advertising their cars NONSTOP lately, and not prestigious style adverts either. Literally Nissan/Hyundai style, low-brow adverts that are so prevalent they reek of anything but "luxury/premium" brand status. I even heard one that said "considering a Nissan/Toyota/Honda? Well you'll be surprised at how closely you can lease a Mercedes to them". Point being: Mercedes is spending a ton on marketing right now, and less for maintaining brand image, more for getting lower-market-car shoppers into their vehicles.

I agree with many of your points and disagree with many as well. However, what I am most interested in is what happened this month. This is not about which is a better car. I agree that sales stats for one month are not indicative of the quality of a car. The 5er and the E-class are both great cars. I just don't see why this happened now.

If it is inventory, how could BMW let that happen (my local dealers healthy inventory doesn't really support this if that means anything)? As I said earlier I don't see how an incentive change could be the cause as you can still get 2014s for $10k off MSRP - and I haven't seen similar adds for E-classes in the past month or two but I'll bet similar deals are out there.

I don't think a 70ish% drop in one month and a 60% drop same month 13-14 can be written off as simple market fluctuations. Plus since 2010, the 5 series has only once gone below 2k units. The lowest was in Aug of 2012 in a similar blip. The other weak sales period was early 2010 when Jan - May were all between 2 and 3k:
(http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01...s-figures.html)

Nothing like this has happened to the E-class since 2010 (http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01...s-figures.html). So it is sure possible for a company to manage the business end of things to allow a car to sell at what the market dictates.

Regarding marketing, while watching a recent football game I remember seeing 2 commercials for MB and about 5 or 6 for BMW (along with what seemed to be a hundred replays of the same Nissan spot that drove me to nuts). So I don't see MB being any more add happy than BMW. Plus I have never seen the commercial you mentioned comparing a Merc to a Nissan/Toyota/Honda. Perhaps that was from a stupid dealership group in your area. Most of what I am seeing are for the new C-class (pretty good ones if you ask me), a few E-class ones, some focusing on collision prevention assist and a few CLA spots. Nothing overboard in your face all the time like you describe.

I haven't been following too closely, but from what I thought/think; 2014 5's were blown out a while ago, probably very few remaining, or at least not much, and 2015's are barely on the grounds yet not to mention have no incentives going towards them. I have seen lots of current gen BMW's have really odd low sales months, then follow with insanely strong months. The 6 Series had that recently where one month it posted like low hundreds, then the next month almost 4,000, which is unbelievable for a car of that price range. BMW seem to have a more inconsistent volume basis than M-B, maybe on purpose, who knows.

Either way, not sure, but I'd think that it has a lot more to do with production than it does demand, but like I said, I haven't followed the business side of it (I feel as an enthusiast when you get too involved in that, it kind of ruins the "magic" and "escapism" that being a car enthusiast is all about) for several months, so I don't know.

Yeah, around me, M-B commercials are everywhere. And they're not really elegant spots either. The "you can get it for almost the same price as a Nissan/Honda/etc. was indeed a local dealer add, and was frankly gross to hear. But the M-B commercials I feel are not up to a premium standard either, including some of the new C spots. They remind me of American Car spots, like Chevy's, etc. Like they're trying to pander to the masses more (which they obviously are, so it makes sense). Giving the C250 a V8 rumble in commercials is also unbecoming, etc.

Around here, M-B spots seem pretty in-your-face, compared to others. BMW don't seem to advertise as much, or maybe I just don't scrutinize them as much thus pay less attention to them. The 3 Series has just started running a kind of cheesy "trickle down from the i8" spot which also panders to a less enthusiast demographic, which is obviously due to the C Class launching.

The manufacturer seeks (and reports) registrations, not actual sales to end users. As I'm sure you surmised, 4,000 well to do individuals didn't suddenly wake up and go buy a 6er one month!

Dealers often buy the cars themselves to meet volume targets (ie: no end user) and pocket the manufacturer cash, use the car as a demonstrators/courtesy car for a period of time, and then retail out of it to an actual end user at a heavy discount. BMW did this a few months ago in Canada with the 5er, and it is ongoing up here with slow moving seasonal models like the SL and SLK, as well as the run-out of the CLS.

If you want to get a real picture of vehicles sold to end users, you need to refer to 3rd party data (POLK, etc) rather than manufacturer reported numbers.

Even counting punched cars, the 6 never (well since 2010) sold more than 1400 in a month and it only did that once (June '13). In fact since 2004 it hasn't sold more than 10k in a year.

Dated 10/10/2014 - CNBC: BMW Outsells Audi & Mercedes in September
 

Just posting for continued discussion.....


BMW Outsells Audi & Mercedes in September

^ and there you have it.

i8 parked in front of my office today. Photos do not do this car justice. The best BMW I have ever seen.

http://i403.photobucket.com/albums/p...7/IMG_0894.jpg

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BMW look really overpriced. I just got off BMW dealer after test driving 535i. Car is great but equally equipped E class cost $7k less. Salesman agreed with me if you look for a value, BMW is certainly a waste. So I am hoping for good incentives in Nov-Dec to be able to take 535i. I do not want second E350 in my garage and it looks like not much alternatives from other makers. Audi is very overpriced as well, actually not car itself, just residual.