Why One Should Not Buy A Tesla Model S
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Rock (06-12-2017)
04-13-2017, 11:54 AM
#902
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funny thread. Lots of crazy on both sides (for/against Tesla)
I have been a German car guy for 15 years. I've owned Mercedes and Audis, never a BM. I started thinking the Tesla thing was interesting last year and was following them closely.
Here's the thing...they're not as good as an S class. But neither is a Mercedes CLS. Comparing anything to an S class is stupid. They're the best cars in the world. The Tesla is sized/styled/shaped more like a CLS/Panamera/6series GC/A7,S7,RS7, so those are more apt comparisons.
I recently bought an AWD Tesla Model S because I think they're interesting. I think in 10 years we'll all have at least 1 electric car in our garages. Here are my thoughts about it.
The car is a good car...not the greatest car ever, but it's very good. It handles very well. Steering feels great and connected. Acceleration is fantastic at all speeds (the poster above who complained they 'fall off' after 100 mph...they still acclerate hard, and maybe fall off vs. their epic accleration below 100...and even then who cares how well your 5000 lb luxury car accelerates above 100 mph...are you in a street racing gang for families of 5?)
The interior is improving as the years roll by. early ones were weaker, modern ones are much better with nappa leather, alcantara, better designed seats etc. The technology in the car is fantastic and competes favourably with just about anything out there.
Never going to a gas station is great. Travelling 50 miles a day is no big deal and means by wednesday night I should remember to plug in ( but if I forget, I'm fine)...and I then get 30 miles of charge for each hr plugged in at home for a cost of about $5 per 200 miles driven. My V8 Audi costs me about $40 for the same range and the gas station isn't in my garage.
Some will say 'but if you drive 600 miles in a day superchargers blah blah blah' . Who the hell is driving 600 miles in a day? If you do...maybe you do it once a year? If you don't, great, don't buy a Tesla. The other 99.9% of the population, keep reading. Even if you do drive 600 miles, as long as there are superchargers, stop at one every 2 hrs for 20 minutes and blast in about 120 miles of range and you're good to go. On a full charge you'll get between 200 miles (in cold cold temps going 80 mph) to 275 miles (in nice weather going 70 miles an hr) to 350 miles (in nice weather going 55 mph) from a Model S. That's plenty to reach superchargers unless you live in the middle of nowhere, or east coast proivinces in canada. If you do, again, don't buy one yet.
Depreciation is something not talked about here. These cars just don't (and won't) depreciate at the same rate as a CLS or Panamera or Audi 7. They don't have the engine and transmission to wear out, and they have an 8 year warranty on the battery and drive even if they have a problem. They also get software updated which helps keep 4 year old cars more relevant. The numbers bear this out. average depreciation in 4-5 years on these cars is about 45% while it's about 60% for the competition. So while they're 'expensive' relative to the competition they also don't burn your dollars away in depreciation as quickly. If your $100,000 car depreciates 15% less in 4 years that's pretty signficant. Makes paying an extra $10,000 not such a big deal doesn't it.
Where the company sucks is at being a company. it's frigging tiny. Their finance department could fit in a Model S. The service centres are WAY too far apart and the infrastructure for sales/service really needs to improve. one neat thing is, I had a problem with my car with a couple of warnings popping up. I called Tesla service and they said 'we will diagnose the car, and call you back'. An hr later I had an email explaining what was wrong (the car has it's own LTE connection and they can connect and see what's wrong)...turns out it was a minor item I could ignore (a grounding stud needed replaced...10 minute repair) and they booked an appointment to have it fixed next time I was near the service centre.
So it's not all roses as the Teslamaniacs will tell you , nor is it anywhere near as bad as those terrified of electric cars will. I think it's the future for a good portion of our vehicles that's for sure, so it's exciting to see how good it will be when Audi launches an electric Q7 in 2018 and Mercedes puts out an electric E-class. All the big guys are waiting for is a worldwide, public, charging infrastructure for their clients. We're getting there.
I have been a German car guy for 15 years. I've owned Mercedes and Audis, never a BM. I started thinking the Tesla thing was interesting last year and was following them closely.
Here's the thing...they're not as good as an S class. But neither is a Mercedes CLS. Comparing anything to an S class is stupid. They're the best cars in the world. The Tesla is sized/styled/shaped more like a CLS/Panamera/6series GC/A7,S7,RS7, so those are more apt comparisons.
I recently bought an AWD Tesla Model S because I think they're interesting. I think in 10 years we'll all have at least 1 electric car in our garages. Here are my thoughts about it.
The car is a good car...not the greatest car ever, but it's very good. It handles very well. Steering feels great and connected. Acceleration is fantastic at all speeds (the poster above who complained they 'fall off' after 100 mph...they still acclerate hard, and maybe fall off vs. their epic accleration below 100...and even then who cares how well your 5000 lb luxury car accelerates above 100 mph...are you in a street racing gang for families of 5?)
The interior is improving as the years roll by. early ones were weaker, modern ones are much better with nappa leather, alcantara, better designed seats etc. The technology in the car is fantastic and competes favourably with just about anything out there.
Never going to a gas station is great. Travelling 50 miles a day is no big deal and means by wednesday night I should remember to plug in ( but if I forget, I'm fine)...and I then get 30 miles of charge for each hr plugged in at home for a cost of about $5 per 200 miles driven. My V8 Audi costs me about $40 for the same range and the gas station isn't in my garage.
Some will say 'but if you drive 600 miles in a day superchargers blah blah blah' . Who the hell is driving 600 miles in a day? If you do...maybe you do it once a year? If you don't, great, don't buy a Tesla. The other 99.9% of the population, keep reading. Even if you do drive 600 miles, as long as there are superchargers, stop at one every 2 hrs for 20 minutes and blast in about 120 miles of range and you're good to go. On a full charge you'll get between 200 miles (in cold cold temps going 80 mph) to 275 miles (in nice weather going 70 miles an hr) to 350 miles (in nice weather going 55 mph) from a Model S. That's plenty to reach superchargers unless you live in the middle of nowhere, or east coast proivinces in canada. If you do, again, don't buy one yet.
Depreciation is something not talked about here. These cars just don't (and won't) depreciate at the same rate as a CLS or Panamera or Audi 7. They don't have the engine and transmission to wear out, and they have an 8 year warranty on the battery and drive even if they have a problem. They also get software updated which helps keep 4 year old cars more relevant. The numbers bear this out. average depreciation in 4-5 years on these cars is about 45% while it's about 60% for the competition. So while they're 'expensive' relative to the competition they also don't burn your dollars away in depreciation as quickly. If your $100,000 car depreciates 15% less in 4 years that's pretty signficant. Makes paying an extra $10,000 not such a big deal doesn't it.
Where the company sucks is at being a company. it's frigging tiny. Their finance department could fit in a Model S. The service centres are WAY too far apart and the infrastructure for sales/service really needs to improve. one neat thing is, I had a problem with my car with a couple of warnings popping up. I called Tesla service and they said 'we will diagnose the car, and call you back'. An hr later I had an email explaining what was wrong (the car has it's own LTE connection and they can connect and see what's wrong)...turns out it was a minor item I could ignore (a grounding stud needed replaced...10 minute repair) and they booked an appointment to have it fixed next time I was near the service centre.
So it's not all roses as the Teslamaniacs will tell you , nor is it anywhere near as bad as those terrified of electric cars will. I think it's the future for a good portion of our vehicles that's for sure, so it's exciting to see how good it will be when Audi launches an electric Q7 in 2018 and Mercedes puts out an electric E-class. All the big guys are waiting for is a worldwide, public, charging infrastructure for their clients. We're getting there.
After dragging their feet and trying to delay the inevitable, Mercedes fully understands that Tesla represents the future of the automobile. Mercedes announced that they will speed up the rollout of their initial EV lineup by 3 years and invest about $10B in the process. This essentially means the end of significant investments in combusting technology as combusting technology will likely become obsolete in the premium car segment in 10 years.
Mercedes-Benz is accelerating its rollout of battery-powered autos in a race to meet tighter emissions rules as European buyers turn away from fuel-efficient diesel cars.
In a 10 billion-euro ($10.8 billion) project, the world’s largest luxury-car maker intends to release 10 new electric vehicles by 2022, three years earlier than a target announced at the Paris auto show in September. The expedited time frame reflects the urgency facing manufacturers as they brace for a shift away from traditional automotive technologies. Combustion engines would continue to be refined for a “transitional period,” Mercedes parent Daimler AG said on Wednesday.
“We want to shape the profound transformation of the automotive industry from the forefront,” Daimler Chairman Manfred Bischoff said in a statement at the company’s annual shareholder meeting in Berlin. “Further fundamental changes will be required for Daimler to remain successful,” as the industry adjusts to cars running on electric motors and capable of driving themselves.
In a 10 billion-euro ($10.8 billion) project, the world’s largest luxury-car maker intends to release 10 new electric vehicles by 2022, three years earlier than a target announced at the Paris auto show in September. The expedited time frame reflects the urgency facing manufacturers as they brace for a shift away from traditional automotive technologies. Combustion engines would continue to be refined for a “transitional period,” Mercedes parent Daimler AG said on Wednesday.
“We want to shape the profound transformation of the automotive industry from the forefront,” Daimler Chairman Manfred Bischoff said in a statement at the company’s annual shareholder meeting in Berlin. “Further fundamental changes will be required for Daimler to remain successful,” as the industry adjusts to cars running on electric motors and capable of driving themselves.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...tion-era-fades
04-13-2017, 12:16 PM
#903
pretty sure mercedes didn't watch Tesla grow out of nothing and then go 'oh **** we better do something'. Are you forgetting that Mercedes owned a chunk of Tesla early on? They were inside the board room, and knew exactly what was going on with them.
as I noted in my post, Audi, Mercedes, BM, everyone have had electric cars with massive batteries for a loooong time. There are however a couple of huge differences
1. they are responsible to shareholders, so rolling them out when batteries cost $40,000 wasn't realistic (Tesla did it to get established and lost a fortune in the process)
2. rolling them out when it's hard to charge your car away from home also doesn't make sense, but neither does spending billions bulding 'gas stations' (superchargers) across the planet. Again, they're responsible to shareholders and as such respected shareholder capital.
My honest feeling is that the big germans have been quietly waiting to strike. They're just not going to lose $10,000-20,000 a car. They're waiting for Tesla/Panasonic to open the battery gigafactory and for the cost of a 100 kw battery to be $8,000 not $28,000. They're waiting for chargers to be readily accessible. They're waiting for the ability to sell a MB CLS with 300 miles of range for $80,000 while making their 9% margin on it, not while losing money.
They aren't dumb or hung up on ICE cars. They're playing chess 10 moves ahead. Just watch.
as I noted in my post, Audi, Mercedes, BM, everyone have had electric cars with massive batteries for a loooong time. There are however a couple of huge differences
1. they are responsible to shareholders, so rolling them out when batteries cost $40,000 wasn't realistic (Tesla did it to get established and lost a fortune in the process)
2. rolling them out when it's hard to charge your car away from home also doesn't make sense, but neither does spending billions bulding 'gas stations' (superchargers) across the planet. Again, they're responsible to shareholders and as such respected shareholder capital.
My honest feeling is that the big germans have been quietly waiting to strike. They're just not going to lose $10,000-20,000 a car. They're waiting for Tesla/Panasonic to open the battery gigafactory and for the cost of a 100 kw battery to be $8,000 not $28,000. They're waiting for chargers to be readily accessible. They're waiting for the ability to sell a MB CLS with 300 miles of range for $80,000 while making their 9% margin on it, not while losing money.
They aren't dumb or hung up on ICE cars. They're playing chess 10 moves ahead. Just watch.
Last edited by sakimano; 04-13-2017 at 12:19 PM.
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C280 Sport (04-13-2017)
04-13-2017, 05:15 PM
#904
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pretty sure mercedes didn't watch Tesla grow out of nothing and then go 'oh **** we better do something'. Are you forgetting that Mercedes owned a chunk of Tesla early on? They were inside the board room, and knew exactly what was going on with them.
as I noted in my post, Audi, Mercedes, BM, everyone have had electric cars with massive batteries for a loooong time. There are however a couple of huge differences
1. they are responsible to shareholders, so rolling them out when batteries cost $40,000 wasn't realistic (Tesla did it to get established and lost a fortune in the process)
2. rolling them out when it's hard to charge your car away from home also doesn't make sense, but neither does spending billions bulding 'gas stations' (superchargers) across the planet. Again, they're responsible to shareholders and as such respected shareholder capital.
My honest feeling is that the big germans have been quietly waiting to strike. They're just not going to lose $10,000-20,000 a car. They're waiting for Tesla/Panasonic to open the battery gigafactory and for the cost of a 100 kw battery to be $8,000 not $28,000. They're waiting for chargers to be readily accessible. They're waiting for the ability to sell a MB CLS with 300 miles of range for $80,000 while making their 9% margin on it, not while losing money.
They aren't dumb or hung up on ICE cars. They're playing chess 10 moves ahead. Just watch.
as I noted in my post, Audi, Mercedes, BM, everyone have had electric cars with massive batteries for a loooong time. There are however a couple of huge differences
1. they are responsible to shareholders, so rolling them out when batteries cost $40,000 wasn't realistic (Tesla did it to get established and lost a fortune in the process)
2. rolling them out when it's hard to charge your car away from home also doesn't make sense, but neither does spending billions bulding 'gas stations' (superchargers) across the planet. Again, they're responsible to shareholders and as such respected shareholder capital.
My honest feeling is that the big germans have been quietly waiting to strike. They're just not going to lose $10,000-20,000 a car. They're waiting for Tesla/Panasonic to open the battery gigafactory and for the cost of a 100 kw battery to be $8,000 not $28,000. They're waiting for chargers to be readily accessible. They're waiting for the ability to sell a MB CLS with 300 miles of range for $80,000 while making their 9% margin on it, not while losing money.
They aren't dumb or hung up on ICE cars. They're playing chess 10 moves ahead. Just watch.
Correct sakimano. WEBSRFR likes to live in his own world and thinks anyone who does not make a EV ASAP is dragging their feet. Not the case at all.
04-13-2017, 06:37 PM
#905
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pretty sure mercedes didn't watch Tesla grow out of nothing and then go 'oh **** we better do something'. Are you forgetting that Mercedes owned a chunk of Tesla early on? They were inside the board room, and knew exactly what was going on with them.
as I noted in my post, Audi, Mercedes, BM, everyone have had electric cars with massive batteries for a loooong time. There are however a couple of huge differences
1. they are responsible to shareholders, so rolling them out when batteries cost $40,000 wasn't realistic (Tesla did it to get established and lost a fortune in the process)
2. rolling them out when it's hard to charge your car away from home also doesn't make sense, but neither does spending billions bulding 'gas stations' (superchargers) across the planet. Again, they're responsible to shareholders and as such respected shareholder capital.
My honest feeling is that the big germans have been quietly waiting to strike. They're just not going to lose $10,000-20,000 a car. They're waiting for Tesla/Panasonic to open the battery gigafactory and for the cost of a 100 kw battery to be $8,000 not $28,000. They're waiting for chargers to be readily accessible. They're waiting for the ability to sell a MB CLS with 300 miles of range for $80,000 while making their 9% margin on it, not while losing money.
They aren't dumb or hung up on ICE cars. They're playing chess 10 moves ahead. Just watch.
as I noted in my post, Audi, Mercedes, BM, everyone have had electric cars with massive batteries for a loooong time. There are however a couple of huge differences
1. they are responsible to shareholders, so rolling them out when batteries cost $40,000 wasn't realistic (Tesla did it to get established and lost a fortune in the process)
2. rolling them out when it's hard to charge your car away from home also doesn't make sense, but neither does spending billions bulding 'gas stations' (superchargers) across the planet. Again, they're responsible to shareholders and as such respected shareholder capital.
My honest feeling is that the big germans have been quietly waiting to strike. They're just not going to lose $10,000-20,000 a car. They're waiting for Tesla/Panasonic to open the battery gigafactory and for the cost of a 100 kw battery to be $8,000 not $28,000. They're waiting for chargers to be readily accessible. They're waiting for the ability to sell a MB CLS with 300 miles of range for $80,000 while making their 9% margin on it, not while losing money.
They aren't dumb or hung up on ICE cars. They're playing chess 10 moves ahead. Just watch.
Oh and please stop with the nonsense about Tesla "losing money." Save that for those without a clue about the basics of building a massive company. The profit margin for the Tesla Model S is about 4X that of Mercedes. In fact Tesla's profit margin is the largest in the automotive industry for a mass market vehicle. Higher than even Porsche.
The only reason Tesla as a company is "losing money" is because they invest all their profit into growth -- as they should. Tesla is in the process of ramping up to build 500,000 - 1,000,000+ vehicles as quickly as possible. In the coming years, you will see Tesla ramp up production to be a company worth about as much or more than Mercedes. And the public has yet to even grasp what they are doing with energy storage, PV production, and the impending launch of a Uber competitor with full autonomous vehicles.
Tesla is already the most valuable American carmaker by market capitalization. They achieved this by investing in serious production and creating tens and thousands of American jobs. I bet within the next 6-10 years a chart similar to what you see below will show the trajectory of Tesla market car catching up with Mercedes. And this will require billions in capital expenditure investments.
The Model S came out in 2012 and the automotive industry, in all their hubris, waited until 2018-2020 to develop a competitive car and now their survival will depend on them catching up to Tesla.
Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tes...ker-2017-04-03
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krd2023 (04-14-2017)
04-14-2017, 11:34 AM
#906
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Honestly, I REALLY wanted to love the Tesla S P100D that they very kindly loaned me for 5 days. Brutally fast and handled surprisingly well. Remarkable what Tesla has accomplished in such a short time. Amazing. That's the good news. When I got back into my beautiful, opulent 222 Designo S Class, I realized that the Tesla's substandard interior materials, minimal luxury options, harsh ride, road noise intrusion and cramped rear seating area were too much of a compromise for me. I'm sure these shortcomings will all ultimately be addressed in the future and I will absolutely reconsider at that point...but by then MB, Audi and the others will have their advanced electrics...not sure what the marketplace will look like then. BTW, based on the service appointment delays being experienced in SF, I worry about that situation when there are scores of Model 3's on the streets...
04-15-2017, 08:16 AM
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Honestly, I REALLY wanted to love the Tesla S P100D that they very kindly loaned me for 5 days. Brutally fast and handled surprisingly well. Remarkable what Tesla has accomplished in such a short time. Amazing. That's the good news. When I got back into my beautiful, opulent 222 Designo S Class, I realized that the Tesla's substandard interior materials, minimal luxury options, harsh ride, road noise intrusion and cramped rear seating area were too much of a compromise for me. I'm sure these shortcomings will all ultimately be addressed in the future and I will absolutely reconsider at that point...but by then MB, Audi and the others will have their advanced electrics...not sure what the marketplace will look like then. BTW, based on the service appointment delays being experienced in SF, I worry about that situation when there are scores of Model 3's on the streets...
It's a great commuter but for those of us who like to be ensconced in real luxury, Tesla is way too barren and cheap looking.
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llcd (04-15-2017)
04-15-2017, 10:37 AM
#909
MBWorld Fanatic!
Honestly, I REALLY wanted to love the Tesla S P100D that they very kindly loaned me for 5 days. Brutally fast and handled surprisingly well. Remarkable what Tesla has accomplished in such a short time. Amazing. That's the good news. When I got back into my beautiful, opulent 222 Designo S Class, I realized that the Tesla's substandard interior materials, minimal luxury options, harsh ride, road noise intrusion and cramped rear seating area were too much of a compromise for me. I'm sure these shortcomings will all ultimately be addressed in the future and I will absolutely reconsider at that point...but by then MB, Audi and the others will have their advanced electrics...not sure what the marketplace will look like then. BTW, based on the service appointment delays being experienced in SF, I worry about that situation when there are scores of Model 3's on the streets...
I'm tempted to trade in our P85D for a P100D, especially now that it comes with hardware for fully autonomous driving but I'm waiting for the interior update before I switch.
I agree with you about the interior. It's one area where Tesla needs to up their game. For us the rest of the car was so ahead of time in technology and performance, that the interior as is was sufficient. I know they are working on redesigning the interior of the Model S. The lead car interior designers for both Porsche and Volvo now work for Tesla and I can't wait to see what they come up with.
Mercedes will have their first long range electric car out next year and in the next 2-3 years there will be compelling EVs by Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, Volvo, and even Jaguar. Of course, by then Tesla would have upgraded their interior and refined their designs further.
04-15-2017, 09:18 PM
#910
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Honestly, I REALLY wanted to love the Tesla S P100D that they very kindly loaned me for 5 days. Brutally fast and handled surprisingly well. Remarkable what Tesla has accomplished in such a short time. Amazing. That's the good news. When I got back into my beautiful, opulent 222 Designo S Class, I realized that the Tesla's substandard interior materials, minimal luxury options, harsh ride, road noise intrusion and cramped rear seating area were too much of a compromise for me. I'm sure these shortcomings will all ultimately be addressed in the future and I will absolutely reconsider at that point...but by then MB, Audi and the others will have their advanced electrics...not sure what the marketplace will look like then. BTW, based on the service appointment delays being experienced in SF, I worry about that situation when there are scores of Model 3's on the streets...
Spot on and exactly the same experience I had with P90 (also 5 days), although I realized also a deterioration of performance in just one day (I usually drive very hard, bordering on car abuse).
It's a great commuter but for those of us who like to be ensconced in real luxury, Tesla is way too barren and cheap looking.
It's a great commuter but for those of us who like to be ensconced in real luxury, Tesla is way too barren and cheap looking.
04-16-2017, 08:39 PM
#911
Glad you had the opportunity to try out a P100D. Now you know how it feels to out acelerate a Bugatti Veyron 0-60
I'm tempted to trade in our P85D for a P100D, especially now that it comes with hardware for fully autonomous driving but I'm waiting for the interior update before I switch.
I agree with you about the interior. It's one area where Tesla needs to up their game. For us the rest of the car was so ahead of time in technology and performance, that the interior as is was sufficient. I know they are working on redesigning the interior of the Model S. The lead car interior designers for both Porsche and Volvo now work for Tesla and I can't wait to see what they come up with.
Mercedes will have their first long range electric car out next year and in the next 2-3 years there will be compelling EVs by Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, Volvo, and even Jaguar. Of course, by then Tesla would have upgraded their interior and refined their designs further.
I'm tempted to trade in our P85D for a P100D, especially now that it comes with hardware for fully autonomous driving but I'm waiting for the interior update before I switch.
I agree with you about the interior. It's one area where Tesla needs to up their game. For us the rest of the car was so ahead of time in technology and performance, that the interior as is was sufficient. I know they are working on redesigning the interior of the Model S. The lead car interior designers for both Porsche and Volvo now work for Tesla and I can't wait to see what they come up with.
Mercedes will have their first long range electric car out next year and in the next 2-3 years there will be compelling EVs by Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, Volvo, and even Jaguar. Of course, by then Tesla would have upgraded their interior and refined their designs further.
04-17-2017, 01:59 PM
#912
There is no doubt that the Tesla is a faster car, has a better infotainment system and is more efficient. The problem here is that as I and others have stated, those things listed above are lower on our requirements than comfort, quiet and interior quality.
I wanted a quiet, comfortable car that had decent power and had the ability to provide a safe comfortable ride for the rest of my family. The S class met those requirements, the Tesla did not, at least for me.
I will revisit Tesla in the future when they improve their interiors.
I wanted a quiet, comfortable car that had decent power and had the ability to provide a safe comfortable ride for the rest of my family. The S class met those requirements, the Tesla did not, at least for me.
I will revisit Tesla in the future when they improve their interiors.
04-19-2017, 07:13 AM
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Not to mention the Tesla's are more expensive?
04-19-2017, 10:50 AM
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Sakimano: both of your posts are very good and make good points.
As I and others have said, there is a place for EV's in the auto market. However, the EV is not going to replace the ICE in the lifetime of anyone on this board. The ICE will continue to be a major vehicle because it satisfies so many requirements for majority of vehicle owners and operators.
If it wasn't, you would see ExxonMobile, etc. divesting itself of petroleum and purchasing electric power companies. Not to mention auto companies not spending so much money on R&D of ICE vehicles.
As for Tesla vs. other US carmakers, apples and carrots. Tesla does have a higher market capitalization than Ford and briefly surpassed GM. But that has little to do with its vehicles. It is more of a faith in Elon Musk and what he can do to make money for investors in the future. Not just in cars.
2016 deliveries: Tesla-76 thousand; GM-10 million; Ford-6.65 million.
Net income/loss in 2016: Tesla-$0.8 billion loss; GM-$9.4 billion gain; Ford-$4.6 billion gain.
Also, Musk is involved in a lot of different things which may distract from the automobile side of his business.
Other factors: Tesla has not proven that it really can manufacture, sell and service huge volume of reliable and dependable automobiles. Once other manufacturers begin aggressively selling EV's, will Tesla fall far behind? Similar things have happened in the auto industry in the past.
There is a place for EV's, but they are not going to replace the ICE anytime soon. Nor is Tesla going to become the dominant manufacturer of luxury automobiles in the US.
As I and others have said, there is a place for EV's in the auto market. However, the EV is not going to replace the ICE in the lifetime of anyone on this board. The ICE will continue to be a major vehicle because it satisfies so many requirements for majority of vehicle owners and operators.
If it wasn't, you would see ExxonMobile, etc. divesting itself of petroleum and purchasing electric power companies. Not to mention auto companies not spending so much money on R&D of ICE vehicles.
As for Tesla vs. other US carmakers, apples and carrots. Tesla does have a higher market capitalization than Ford and briefly surpassed GM. But that has little to do with its vehicles. It is more of a faith in Elon Musk and what he can do to make money for investors in the future. Not just in cars.
2016 deliveries: Tesla-76 thousand; GM-10 million; Ford-6.65 million.
Net income/loss in 2016: Tesla-$0.8 billion loss; GM-$9.4 billion gain; Ford-$4.6 billion gain.
Also, Musk is involved in a lot of different things which may distract from the automobile side of his business.
Other factors: Tesla has not proven that it really can manufacture, sell and service huge volume of reliable and dependable automobiles. Once other manufacturers begin aggressively selling EV's, will Tesla fall far behind? Similar things have happened in the auto industry in the past.
There is a place for EV's, but they are not going to replace the ICE anytime soon. Nor is Tesla going to become the dominant manufacturer of luxury automobiles in the US.
Last edited by El Cid; 04-19-2017 at 10:52 AM.
04-19-2017, 01:45 PM
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It surprised the heck out of me, but Boeing and JetBlue recently invested in a startup developing an up to 50 passenger *EV* AIRCRAFT. Surprised because there isn't (I think) that much room for regeneration efficiencies in aircraft, and batteries are kind of heavy. But I think it just another indicative example of the promise of the technology.
Last edited by syswei; 04-19-2017 at 02:25 PM.
04-19-2017, 06:34 PM
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2015 S550 Palladium/Deep Sea Blue, 2016 Tesla Model S 70D, 2015 Volvo XC70
Porsche expanding on its EV plans, in yet another sign of the way the world is headed:
Additional battery-powered models could flank a new sports car based on Porsche’s Mission E concept, which is due in 2019, division chief Oliver Blume said Wednesday in an interview at the Shanghai auto show. The shift could also include more plug-in hybrids beyond variants of the Cayenne SUV and Panamera four-door sedan as Porsche sees the acceleration capabilities of electric motors reinforcing its cachet.
“It’s more than just the need to comply with rules,” Blume said. “We find the technology as such interesting, as electric cars allow a very sporty driving experience, which fits well with the core value of our brand.”
-link to full article
Additional battery-powered models could flank a new sports car based on Porsche’s Mission E concept, which is due in 2019, division chief Oliver Blume said Wednesday in an interview at the Shanghai auto show. The shift could also include more plug-in hybrids beyond variants of the Cayenne SUV and Panamera four-door sedan as Porsche sees the acceleration capabilities of electric motors reinforcing its cachet.
“It’s more than just the need to comply with rules,” Blume said. “We find the technology as such interesting, as electric cars allow a very sporty driving experience, which fits well with the core value of our brand.”
-link to full article
04-19-2017, 06:39 PM
#917
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2015 S550 Palladium/Deep Sea Blue, 2016 Tesla Model S 70D, 2015 Volvo XC70
Not so, if you're comparing the Tesla Model S to the W222; the price ranges overlap, but Tesla's starts lower, and the MB's extends higher. I think it a very fair assumption that the ASP for the Tesla is substantially below that of the MB. And from the consumer's point of view, the full life cycle cost of the Tesla is even lower, because of lower fuel and maintenance costs and better depreciation (so far) than the MB.
04-20-2017, 08:20 AM
#918
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'22 Alpina B7,'21 G63 Renntech obviously (wife), Wrangler(kids)
Not so, if you're comparing the Tesla Model S to the W222; the price ranges overlap, but Tesla's starts lower, and the MB's extends higher. I think it a very fair assumption that the ASP for the Tesla is substantially below that of the MB. And from the consumer's point of view, the full life cycle cost of the Tesla is even lower, because of lower fuel and maintenance costs and better depreciation (so far) than the MB.
2 different purposes, MB is a luxury car, Tesla is not, maybe a semi luxury on par with BMW 5 series or E-Class but definitely not S.
Saying that Tesla is better then S would also mean it is also better then any Rolls or Bentley.
Apples and oranges.....
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C280 Sport (04-20-2017)
04-20-2017, 10:44 AM
#919
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2015 S550 Palladium/Deep Sea Blue, 2016 Tesla Model S 70D, 2015 Volvo XC70
I still don't understand this whole discussion of S-Class vs Tesla.
2 different purposes, MB is a luxury car, Tesla is not, maybe a semi luxury on par with BMW 5 series or E-Class but definitely not S.
Saying that Tesla is better then S would also mean it is also better then any Rolls or Bentley.
Apples and oranges.....
2 different purposes, MB is a luxury car, Tesla is not, maybe a semi luxury on par with BMW 5 series or E-Class but definitely not S.
Saying that Tesla is better then S would also mean it is also better then any Rolls or Bentley.
Apples and oranges.....
There is *some* justification for the comparison because the price range overlaps and they are in the same EPA size category. But it is definitely true that they aren't the most direct of competitors, in the sense that the S-Class, 7-Series, and A8 are.
Personally, the comparison is apt because I drive both, and find myself indifferent between the apple and the orange...as I've posted before, different strengths and weaknesses (for ME) add up to about equal.
04-20-2017, 04:34 PM
#920
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Some details on the Jaguar EV due to go on sale 2H 2018: article
Sounds good to me, except for a likely relative lack of semi-autonomous driving capabilities.
Sounds good to me, except for a likely relative lack of semi-autonomous driving capabilities.
04-24-2017, 04:17 AM
#921
I found this death spiral scenario interesting when thinking about just how BeV displaces ICE.
BeV drops in cost along the current reduction curve primarily driven by falling battery costs and "real" (in car world terms) production volumes.
Autonomy allows for ride sharing. If a car will show up within a minute of my summoning it 95% of the time, I would have no problem "sharing" a car with others. I can easily imagine the roving swarm concept allowing for such service while dropping my daily driver costs by 75% while keeping the same quality of car (3 years old or less, clean and well maintained) simply by sharing the asset with five others. A group of like minded customers a thousand deep will allow the swarm concept to work. I also like the idea of not having to park, service or charge the vehicle along with being able to dispatch it without having to take my time to drive it.
The falling costs together with increasing autonomy has BeVs identified as the new technology, especially for the Uber generation that seems to have little interest in driving or owning a car. Once identified as the future, the ICE increasingly becomes viewed as the past.
Percentage leased rates increase as traditional manufactures prop up production and sales to an ever increasing audience unwilling to take the risk of purchasing technology on the way out. The younger generation is significantly more savvy when it comes to riding the technology curve.
Eventually, the technology fear will creep into the secondary market and residual values will collapse. The traditional manufactures will be left holding a lot of paper on a collapsed asset base. This will be significant enough to spell their demise.
It is an interesting and plausible hypothesis. I do chuckle a bit at all the ICE will never die and this is the only thing that is a real car acceptable to a customer talk. We are a bunch of old people. The up and coming generations do not think like that and, I would argue, the world they are inheriting seems more aligned to their way of thinking than ours. I have no idea of the cause or affect nature of that but only recognize it as reality.
Like my dad going from horses to Mustangs, I'm just glad I have a front row seat to watch this happen.
BeV drops in cost along the current reduction curve primarily driven by falling battery costs and "real" (in car world terms) production volumes.
Autonomy allows for ride sharing. If a car will show up within a minute of my summoning it 95% of the time, I would have no problem "sharing" a car with others. I can easily imagine the roving swarm concept allowing for such service while dropping my daily driver costs by 75% while keeping the same quality of car (3 years old or less, clean and well maintained) simply by sharing the asset with five others. A group of like minded customers a thousand deep will allow the swarm concept to work. I also like the idea of not having to park, service or charge the vehicle along with being able to dispatch it without having to take my time to drive it.
The falling costs together with increasing autonomy has BeVs identified as the new technology, especially for the Uber generation that seems to have little interest in driving or owning a car. Once identified as the future, the ICE increasingly becomes viewed as the past.
Percentage leased rates increase as traditional manufactures prop up production and sales to an ever increasing audience unwilling to take the risk of purchasing technology on the way out. The younger generation is significantly more savvy when it comes to riding the technology curve.
Eventually, the technology fear will creep into the secondary market and residual values will collapse. The traditional manufactures will be left holding a lot of paper on a collapsed asset base. This will be significant enough to spell their demise.
It is an interesting and plausible hypothesis. I do chuckle a bit at all the ICE will never die and this is the only thing that is a real car acceptable to a customer talk. We are a bunch of old people. The up and coming generations do not think like that and, I would argue, the world they are inheriting seems more aligned to their way of thinking than ours. I have no idea of the cause or affect nature of that but only recognize it as reality.
Like my dad going from horses to Mustangs, I'm just glad I have a front row seat to watch this happen.
Last edited by lolachampcar; 04-24-2017 at 04:20 AM.
04-24-2017, 08:20 AM
#922
I found this death spiral scenario interesting when thinking about just how BeV displaces ICE.
BeV drops in cost along the current reduction curve primarily driven by falling battery costs and "real" (in car world terms) production volumes.
Autonomy allows for ride sharing. If a car will show up within a minute of my summoning it 95% of the time, I would have no problem "sharing" a car with others. I can easily imagine the roving swarm concept allowing for such service while dropping my daily driver costs by 75% while keeping the same quality of car (3 years old or less, clean and well maintained) simply by sharing the asset with five others. A group of like minded customers a thousand deep will allow the swarm concept to work. I also like the idea of not having to park, service or charge the vehicle along with being able to dispatch it without having to take my time to drive it.
The falling costs together with increasing autonomy has BeVs identified as the new technology, especially for the Uber generation that seems to have little interest in driving or owning a car. Once identified as the future, the ICE increasingly becomes viewed as the past.
Percentage leased rates increase as traditional manufactures prop up production and sales to an ever increasing audience unwilling to take the risk of purchasing technology on the way out. The younger generation is significantly more savvy when it comes to riding the technology curve.
Eventually, the technology fear will creep into the secondary market and residual values will collapse. The traditional manufactures will be left holding a lot of paper on a collapsed asset base. This will be significant enough to spell their demise.
It is an interesting and plausible hypothesis. I do chuckle a bit at all the ICE will never die and this is the only thing that is a real car acceptable to a customer talk. We are a bunch of old people. The up and coming generations do not think like that and, I would argue, the world they are inheriting seems more aligned to their way of thinking than ours. I have no idea of the cause or affect nature of that but only recognize it as reality.
Like my dad going from horses to Mustangs, I'm just glad I have a front row seat to watch this happen.
BeV drops in cost along the current reduction curve primarily driven by falling battery costs and "real" (in car world terms) production volumes.
Autonomy allows for ride sharing. If a car will show up within a minute of my summoning it 95% of the time, I would have no problem "sharing" a car with others. I can easily imagine the roving swarm concept allowing for such service while dropping my daily driver costs by 75% while keeping the same quality of car (3 years old or less, clean and well maintained) simply by sharing the asset with five others. A group of like minded customers a thousand deep will allow the swarm concept to work. I also like the idea of not having to park, service or charge the vehicle along with being able to dispatch it without having to take my time to drive it.
The falling costs together with increasing autonomy has BeVs identified as the new technology, especially for the Uber generation that seems to have little interest in driving or owning a car. Once identified as the future, the ICE increasingly becomes viewed as the past.
Percentage leased rates increase as traditional manufactures prop up production and sales to an ever increasing audience unwilling to take the risk of purchasing technology on the way out. The younger generation is significantly more savvy when it comes to riding the technology curve.
Eventually, the technology fear will creep into the secondary market and residual values will collapse. The traditional manufactures will be left holding a lot of paper on a collapsed asset base. This will be significant enough to spell their demise.
It is an interesting and plausible hypothesis. I do chuckle a bit at all the ICE will never die and this is the only thing that is a real car acceptable to a customer talk. We are a bunch of old people. The up and coming generations do not think like that and, I would argue, the world they are inheriting seems more aligned to their way of thinking than ours. I have no idea of the cause or affect nature of that but only recognize it as reality.
Like my dad going from horses to Mustangs, I'm just glad I have a front row seat to watch this happen.
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El Cid (04-24-2017)
04-24-2017, 10:39 AM
#923
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2010 E350 Luxury Sedan, Engine 272 (V6)
No one said never, just not soon
I found this death spiral scenario interesting when thinking about just how BeV displaces ICE.
BeV drops in cost along the current reduction curve primarily driven by falling battery costs and "real" (in car world terms) production volumes.
Autonomy allows for ride sharing. If a car will show up within a minute of my summoning it 95% of the time, I would have no problem "sharing" a car with others. I can easily imagine the roving swarm concept allowing for such service while dropping my daily driver costs by 75% while keeping the same quality of car (3 years old or less, clean and well maintained) simply by sharing the asset with five others. A group of like minded customers a thousand deep will allow the swarm concept to work. I also like the idea of not having to park, service or charge the vehicle along with being able to dispatch it without having to take my time to drive it.
The falling costs together with increasing autonomy has BeVs identified as the new technology, especially for the Uber generation that seems to have little interest in driving or owning a car. Once identified as the future, the ICE increasingly becomes viewed as the past.
Percentage leased rates increase as traditional manufactures prop up production and sales to an ever increasing audience unwilling to take the risk of purchasing technology on the way out. The younger generation is significantly more savvy when it comes to riding the technology curve.
Eventually, the technology fear will creep into the secondary market and residual values will collapse. The traditional manufactures will be left holding a lot of paper on a collapsed asset base. This will be significant enough to spell their demise.
It is an interesting and plausible hypothesis. I do chuckle a bit at all the ICE will never die and this is the only thing that is a real car acceptable to a customer talk. We are a bunch of old people. The up and coming generations do not think like that and, I would argue, the world they are inheriting seems more aligned to their way of thinking than ours. I have no idea of the cause or affect nature of that but only recognize it as reality.
Like my dad going from horses to Mustangs, I'm just glad I have a front row seat to watch this happen.
BeV drops in cost along the current reduction curve primarily driven by falling battery costs and "real" (in car world terms) production volumes.
Autonomy allows for ride sharing. If a car will show up within a minute of my summoning it 95% of the time, I would have no problem "sharing" a car with others. I can easily imagine the roving swarm concept allowing for such service while dropping my daily driver costs by 75% while keeping the same quality of car (3 years old or less, clean and well maintained) simply by sharing the asset with five others. A group of like minded customers a thousand deep will allow the swarm concept to work. I also like the idea of not having to park, service or charge the vehicle along with being able to dispatch it without having to take my time to drive it.
The falling costs together with increasing autonomy has BeVs identified as the new technology, especially for the Uber generation that seems to have little interest in driving or owning a car. Once identified as the future, the ICE increasingly becomes viewed as the past.
Percentage leased rates increase as traditional manufactures prop up production and sales to an ever increasing audience unwilling to take the risk of purchasing technology on the way out. The younger generation is significantly more savvy when it comes to riding the technology curve.
Eventually, the technology fear will creep into the secondary market and residual values will collapse. The traditional manufactures will be left holding a lot of paper on a collapsed asset base. This will be significant enough to spell their demise.
It is an interesting and plausible hypothesis. I do chuckle a bit at all the ICE will never die and this is the only thing that is a real car acceptable to a customer talk. We are a bunch of old people. The up and coming generations do not think like that and, I would argue, the world they are inheriting seems more aligned to their way of thinking than ours. I have no idea of the cause or affect nature of that but only recognize it as reality.
Like my dad going from horses to Mustangs, I'm just glad I have a front row seat to watch this happen.
You siad: "If a car will show up within a minute of my summoning it 95% of the time, I would have no problem "sharing" a car with others. I can easily imagine the roving swarm concept allowing for such service while dropping my daily driver costs by 75% while keeping the same quality of car (3 years old or less, clean and well maintained) simply by sharing the asset with five others. A group of like minded customers a thousand deep will allow the swarm concept to work."
Takes me more than a minute to walk into my garage from the house. Takes more than a minute to hail a cab you see and have it stop. How is a car that is "swarming" going to show up one minute after you "summon it?" We cannot handle the traffic in US today, even in smallest rural towns. How would we handle these "swarms" of cars just cruising around waiting to be summoned? When and where would they all get recharged?
The argument is that there will be different types of vehicles for many, many decades to come and that both ICE and EV will be part of that. In addition, other types of energy will become successful, such as fuel cell.
MB had a 40% increase in AMG sales last year and I believe all of them are ICE V8's.
1. There will be room for both technolgies for a very long time to come.
2. Neither the S Class nor the Tesla is better than the other; just different cars for different needs and tastes.
04-24-2017, 07:42 PM
#924
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2016 E350
We have owned and currently do own a Model S. And can say that they are the best car's we've ever owned! We love them to death. And we have been looking to trade our P85+ with Autopilot 1.0 for a new EAP and FSDC P100D. We have driven an S-Class and it's a good car but it's just not our Model S. We have owned a Signature Series Model S which was good but not as good as our current P85+. I'm one of the main driver's of the car and charge too 90% every night and last us all day. When we return home we normally have about 10% to 12% of range left. Which is good enough...We love the car's and will continue to update our car's as long as Tesla continues to update the fleet. 
04-25-2017, 07:23 AM
#925
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'22 Alpina B7,'21 G63 Renntech obviously (wife), Wrangler(kids)
We have owned and currently do own a Model S. And can say that they are the best car's we've ever owned! We love them to death. And we have been looking to trade our P85+ with Autopilot 1.0 for a new EAP and FSDC P100D. We have driven an S-Class and it's a good car but it's just not our Model S. We have owned a Signature Series Model S which was good but not as good as our current P85+. I'm one of the main driver's of the car and charge too 90% every night and last us all day. When we return home we normally have about 10% to 12% of range left. Which is good enough...We love the car's and will continue to update our car's as long as Tesla continues to update the fleet.
As far as the "best car ever owned" it doesn't say much about the fleet of cars you previously owned.
Reminds me of my neighbor in NY back in 1983 with a Pontiac Phoenix ( I had a 928) who always greeted me saying his car was best in the World and much superior to my **** tin can.
