Astolfo

Do you choose your restaurants by looking at reviews in Google and Yelp LOL.

homeofstone

Yes, I do if I am not familiar with the city. And I have checked the recent years'quality and reliability reports from Consumer Reports, J D Powers, Motor Trend, and Car and Driver every time I purchase a vehicle.

ajs76

Wait, you don't? You have to sift through a lot of garbage reviews, but usually you can get a sense for a place especially when traveling.

that was OT...

On topic though, I'd say subjectively I've seen much better reliability out of the Americans than our beloved german cars. My last 4 cars have been various German vehicles and they all had a good amount of things go wrong...except the old ones with very few electronics. Anything modern with tech just seems to have failures.

I mean look...I'll still buy them, but I sometimes do envy my friends in their hondas and toyotas. (and to a lesser extent american cars)

looney100

Sorry, it is you that is mistaken

You claim causation, when all you have support for is correlation. That two are not the same.

The Toronto stock exchange is up 6% in the same period. I suppose that is due to the expected prosperity that Trump will bring to Canada?

gaspam

you are dense... funny all the markets experts claim causation too and all the CFA's and FRM's but nope they're wrong and you are right lol ok market master Its called the "trump bump" for a reason

when you have multiple markets, including ones that are inversely correlated as well, all move drastically and holding over past 2+ months since the election, and currency exchange rates change drastically on a starting on election day, then its causation via election results... there was nothing else to move all the markets that drastically over the same time period with the same starting point (election day) lol...

and yes, Canadian markets moved up similar amount because they are highly correlated to US markets.. what the DJA does, so goes the TSX... but if you had even a elementary understanding of world markets you would know this already as a MBS/ABS trader and VP of capital markets you have no clue as to how ignorant you sound , but please continue to educate me Professor Fabozzi




also since you are so market savvy, explain to us what CAUSED the mexican peso to get crushed on election day and remained unrecovered since? hmmm something caused that to happen on 11/8... i wonder what caused that? oh wait, according to you nothing caused it and its just merely a correlation... there was nothing that happened on 11/8 to cause any markets to move

pghc63

not all German cars have the same reliability
BMW reliability has tanked the past several years including ones built here and in Germany
MB and Audi had a lot of problems 10 years ago
I think what separates German cars from American cars, it seems Germans know how to build more driver oriented cars including focusing on the emotional aspect of driving and overall feel more solid when you are in them

Astolfo

I believe that is about the time the DE manufactures started to seriously move production to outside the EU.😎

10speed

I don't agree with BMW not being reliable,I owned back to back BMW 535 from 2011 and not 1 problem from the car and they stay tight as a drum , I never needed a wheel alignment either living in New York, The only problems I had where with the crap Goodyear runflats, BWM years ago where notorious for electrical problems especially bulbs going out , now nothing goes out all led,

The list of things I had fixed to my E63 already in the last 7 months is really disappointing,I love amg cars and I'm trying to get everything fixed to near perfect but it seems impossible because the dealer mechanics I had to work on my car suck, Right now I'm in a Love hate relationship with my E63 I not giving up just yet.

looney100

I see that, like your new president, you like calling those that disagree with you names. Modelling debating techniques used by seven year olds isn't an effective way to make your point.
I made no claim about forex or bond markets. My comments were about the us equity markets. Equity markets are fickle, investors emotional, and gains and losses highly volatile. You are quite happy to admit to correlations between US and Canadian markets, but somehow trump caused one but not the other.
I stand by my position that this is noise. If you want to look for correlations, they're everywhere.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...indicators.asp

gaspam

I really dont care if he is president or not (if you must know, i wanted rubio) ..... i am stating market facts

lol you're using investopedia? ok that explains it all

and no, i did not say trump caused one and not the other lol go back and re-read.. I said the results of the election (trump being elected) caused ALL MARKETS (currency and bond markets are part of that) to react sharply (canada is part of ALL)... if the election caused US markets to go up, and canadian market is highly correlated to us markets, then canadian markets went up because US markets went up because of election results, 1+1=2

and if you think, when all markets did pretty much the same thing for 76+ days all starting on election day = noise, then ok pass the bong

but you're right, day after US election day, pretty much all the equities markets when up and all the bond markets when down for some other unknown reason... sounds legit

looney100

I don't care who you supported, this isn't a discussion about politics.
My point is simply this. You're trying to draw a straight line between the Trump election (cause) and strength in the market (effect) that isn't well supported.
A 7% move in equity markets over a quarter is not a unique occurrence. There were single days during the credit crisis where markets moved that much. Markets go up and they go down, often without obvious reason. Some days there is news that drives market sentiment, other days investors are either elated or depressed - often with no news reason to support such strong moves.
Brexit, Grexit, flash crash, tech wreck, Trump bump. Markets made big moves and then came back when nothing had really changed other than sentiment. Why? Who knows. In the short term, markets are irrational and unpredictable.
Noise.

gaspam

umm youre the one that made the comment "you must really like your new president"... i was merely replying to that comment.

and markets rarely move 7% in one day (its only happened 2 times from the credit crisis until now lol,,, 10/13/2008 and 10/28/2008), and when it does, its does it for a major reason... not for unexplained reasons

its odd that my trading models are able to do magic and solve for unpredictable "noise" as you say, I guess that's why they keep paying me... please educate me more... I would like to know your thoughts on Black Scholes and OAS pricing model performance during a market with lots of vega or how the rho and vega play was affected on index options ? please educate me more on the markets, like how they go up and down for magical unknown reasons that's it, Im going into work tomorrow and deleting all our trading/ hedging models and we are going to a "guessing" strategy since "who knows why markets do what they do as they "... lol

Astolfo

Moderator can you please close my post.

looney100

Read my post closely. I didn't say that you must like your president. I said "like your president" - as in "similar to your president". You see, the word "like" can have different meanings when used in different ways. Perhaps I should post a bunch of language terms to impress readers, LIKE you have done with The terms you seem to have pulled from your textbooks or model manuals.

I also didn't claim that a 7% single day move was common, but that 7% in a quarter is nothing special. Yes a 7% single day move is huge - and rare. Tell me, how highly correlated are 7% short term run-ups and 46% annual growth rates - as you extrapolated in one of your earliest posts? It was this which was the basis of my initial challenge to you.

LIKE your president, you seem to react very viscerally to people asking for support for your assertions of fact.

My old textbooks are full of pricing models that use rational inputs to price options, equities, bonds, etc. But a significant portion of the time, they would all fail to properly predict the market price of a security - because markets are emotional and irrational in the short term. That is why most of the models used by professional investors don't use textbook formulas, but rely on statistical models that work on historical CORRELATIONS. The models are constantly being updated to include new correlations as they are identified. They need not have causation to work. If X goes up 75% of the time when Y goes down, and you're the first one to execute a trade when you see X happening, you can make gobs of money. This is how the models work. It is why they are built by egghead engineers, statisticians and mathematicians. To understand the models, you are better off being an engineer, mathematician or statistician. I am quite comfortable it hose disciplines.

Yes computer models work sometimes. Other times they don't. The credit crisis was caused by computer model run amok. That's why just about every financial institution in the US found themselves on the wrong side of the trade. Models didn't predict that very well, did they.
Ultimately those models are based on correlations between several factors, similar to a multiple linear regression model. The models don't know or care what caused a movement. Only that event X is highly correlated to a movement in Y. They see X occur, and seek to make money on Y by executing trades before others have reacted.

Look, it's clear you work in the industry, and are actively trading using models. My profession is outside the investment industry, but that doesn't mean I'm not well educated and experienced in investments. I've seen the charts, and the technical jargon. It neither impresses nor bewilders me.
Out of respect to the OP, and as this is an automotive forum, this will be my last response.

(mic drop)

gaspam

actually the basis of all of this is you saying the election did not cause this run up in the market since election day and that instead its merely correlation , which through logic and charts proved you wrong


lol wrong most trading models rely on log normal diffusions and partial differential equation models, not stat models using historical correlations... try again.... you might be thinking about day trading, which isnt really trading at all, just informed gambling....

hey you finally got one correct, my degree is financial engineering with minor in econometric and applied mathmatics

lol wrong, it was caused by the subprime crash of 2007 and regulators not paying attention and lack of reg... had nothing to do models run amok... had to do with shady lenders pushing tons of people into mortgages they couldnt afford and when they went default it had a cascading effect across the world because most of those mortgages were packaged into bonds, which thus defaulted too..

by the way, you still never gave your thoughts on Black Scholes and OAS pricing model performance during a market with lots of vega or how the rho and vega play was affected on index options ? maybe because you dont really know anything about the markets as you admitted well clearly we know you dont know.... just because you dont get it doesnt mean other people dont

(mic drop)

keep on believing that pretty much all markets reacted sharply to the election was not CAUSED by the election and merely CORRELATION , as that was our original point of contention

mooreman6

The new CTSV with the Z06 motor cut and paste, no de-tuning except 10hp for exhaust is a damn good alternative. I'm waiting for 2-3 yrs and get a <20k mile off-lease car for hopefully $40-50k. Just my thoughts on buying American.

otakki

After seeing the new W213 E63, I have also thought about CTS-V instead and wait 7 years for the W214 E63.

TMC M5

I wonder if a huge tariff would actually help the resale value of our used cars. Kind of like how with my old '09 GT-R's value never went down because every year the new GT-Rs MSRP jumped up significantly. I think from '09 to '13 the GT-R's price had jumped $30K+ or over a 40%+ increase. I traded my car in to a dealer for almost what I paid.

10speed

You being a previous GTR owner can you tell me the pros and cons vs owning an E63 , I really like GTR's myself and I see they really hold there value

AMGfaninVA

This ^^^ is where your assumption went off the rails.

TMC M5

About the only thing in common is that they both have AWD and have the same width of tires front and back. They are obviously very different cars.

GT-R Pros: great tuning ability, the aforementioned high resale value, tremendous grip, chassis still not overpowered even with full bolt-ons, and has great physical presence.

GT-R cons: cheap interior (much improved on more recent models), clunky DCT transmission with only 6 speeds (more recent software updates have helped this), very tight back seats, in stock form the car lacks personality and is actually kind of boring (but few people keep them stock), transmission on older models is a ticking time-bomb (some solenoid are defective), and very high maintenance costs if you follow factory guidelines.

otakki

Other GTR cons: Use race start more than once and the warranty gets voided (That's right, that applies to present MY's, too), no split folding back seat.

BTW, GTR has tried to move upmarket with their ever increasing price. I think AMG is trying to do the same.

TMC M5

That isn't exactly true. The original '09 launch control procedure required that you turn traction control off. Your warranty was in jeopardy when you turned traction control completely off and something broke. There was a software update for the '09 that would allow launch control without turning traction control completely off. It was not as a aggressive as the original. That feature was made standard in later GT-R models and you can use launch control w/traction control without voiding your warranty. There are other limitations that require the system to now "reset" if used too often or trans temps too high.

otakki

According to the service manager at a Nissan dealership: reportedly said by the factory trained tech who is in charge of handling all GTR related repairs and maintenance in the 3-4 Nissan dealerships closest to me

TMC M5

Then he doesn't know what he is talking about. I had the software upgrade that enabled the launch control without taking traction control off. I had to sign a waiver for them (Nissan USA) to do it for my '09. There are pinned threads over on gtrlife that go through all the software variations for the launch controls features for each year.

You would be surprised how little some of the service managers/techs know about the cars they work on.