Landers

Beats today's S65 at what? Certain things, yes. certain things, no. Performance? Again certain things yes, certain things no. I laughed when you wrote that the S Class would be invisible if you were driving your Tesla vs. an S Class and were willing to bet your house. I will take that action any single day. Let me know and I'll define the parameters.

MBNUT1

Well the good news is that your car creates less than half the CO2 than an S5504matic. How much difference that will make to the environment in the grand scheme of things but it is a step in the right direction.

absent

You are not counting the emissions during the production of that electricity Tesla uses, it doesn't come free after all.
What about batteries? One of the most environment damaging processes required to make them.

SilverP85plus

I have solar on my roof, they emit nothing.

SilverP85plus

You're not counting (on top of your car's emission) delivery to storage, delivery to stations, trucks going back to pick up more to deliver to stations, storage and refinement of gas are you? There are quite a few steps you forgot huh?

It seems all of you don't do much research at all. You people remind me of those guys in NYC that stand in front of a bodega on the corner all day and night with 40's in hand and talking nonsense all day.

I really don't have much time to continue educating you. GL and Happy New Year

SilverP85plus

it would be, no one would give 2 ****s about your Mercedes. That's not a guess, it's a fact.

Landers

Huh? This is incoherent. What would be? What does anyone caring about my car have to do with anything?

MBNUT1

The comparison included upstream emissions in my coal burning state of Ohio

MBNUT1

Included apples to apples upstream emissions in Ohio.


Bottom line to this whole discussion is that the Tesla S is a sporty execution of a low emissions sedan but in the world of luxury cars it isn't in the same league as a Mercedes S class.

absent

I'm just curious why are you here?
What is your end goal?
You are preaching to guys who can easily afford any Tesla multiple times over yet they don't.
Not because they are unfamiliar with it, quite contrary, most of us have driven them, tested them, considered them at some point and then made a conscious decision to spend tens of thousands more on cars that are in your view inferior to Tesla.
I think it is hard for you to understand that most car enthusiasts want something more then transportation appliance (no matter how easy it connects you to facebook and twitter), even if it has the WOW! acceleration from stop so impressive to folks used to drive Priuses and Civics.
You are wasting your time here on this Blog, the sooner you realize this the sooner you will end your frustration with our answers.
Have a Happy New Year......

Wolfman

Not sure why anyone bothers with SilverP85plus.

Typical troll.

The guy is too lazy to even read the (too) many posts in this thread.

Point is that many of the members are pro EV but just don't care for the Tesla Model S for many stated reasons.

Trolls like to make this a thread about new school vs. old school but miss the point but people may just not like the car (does not seem to compute)

This whole thread unfortunately is worthless and was created for the wrong reason (sorry MTrauman ). You can't argue with people like WEBSRFR. Positive or negative, it provides the oxygen for countless unchangeable arguments as we see here.

Just put these guys on the ignore list and move on. We'll soon see many EV's from other manufacturers that will kill the whole Tesla argument as some of these touted features (0-60 times, etc.) become a standard fare.
I do applaud Tesla for their over-the-air updates and will be happy to see that coming to other brands, including MB.

MTrauman

+1

PaulE550

+2

Happy New Year to all. Now can this thread come to a well-deserved end?

BluetecKING

Wait, Wait, Wait, I haven't read this whole forum yet so the things I'm saying may have already been said. However, as for the teslas interior, besides the screen, isn't it a bucket of dated MB interior parts. Doesn't it have the same buttons and levers as a gla or my 2013 ml? As for recognition, its all relative. In the country where there aren't many luxury cars, an s class will go a lot further than a tesla. Many won't even know what a tesla is. They will know what an s class is. Last, tesla doesn't turn a profit according to FACT (financial statements, which cannot be argued with unless Tesla's cooking the books).

BluetecKING

Sorry didn't read this, probably should've

krd2023

I like most everything I read about Tesla and only hope their business model proves sustainable. I've test-driven two Model S sedans and a Model X SUV and love the technology. When I decide to drive another luxury car, it will likely be a Tesla. I understand why Tesla recently ranked #1 in Consumer Reports 2016 Owner Satisfaction Survey (with Mercedes at #19):

http://www.consumerreports.org/car-r...-satisfaction/

My disclaimer: I'll never buy another Mercedes because of my saga as detailed in a thread I started here: https://mbworld.org/forums/diesel-fo...ne-seized.html

lolachampcar

Yes, you will find those workers in the grassy knoll right next to the second shooter.

I love the internet. You can say the craziest stuff with zero accountability.

Nah, do not look at those crash test results or, for that matter, the car's on road safety record. Look instead to me for I have had conversations with the Tesla employees who say the car is actually made with gum wrappers and is beyond unsafe



The S Class is also a very safe car. Is there any reason there can not be two or more safe cars on the road at the same time?

lolachampcar

and about those over the air updates that make the car "better"...........


Tesla has now implemented a counter that looks at how many times you have used the power in the P90DL V3 battery and, once a limit is reached, they premaritally decrease the car's power significantly. A few owners felt their car was slower after a software update then checked and confirmed that power had been decreased. When asked, Tesla confirmed they had done this.

The latest software update pending on my car reduces the allowable speed over posted from +5 to zero when using autopilot on two lane roads. To Tesla's credit, they state that their Beta auto pilot should not be used on two lane roads. For me, +0 is unsafe on many a road (I'd be a rolling road block) thus Tesla is removing functionality from my car.

These are two examples of an endemic arrogance with Tesla where they have a software mindset; you should feel lucky that we let you drive our cars and we reserve the right to do whatever we want without notice or permission.

I'm on my fifth Tesla (my wife and I).

On the financial side, I would encourage posters to educate themselves on growth companies and what it takes to grow at the rate Tesla is growing. While you are at it, you may want to better understand what Tesla Energy is as it will dwarf the automotive side yet skips along under the radar (for now). If your goal is to spread FUD and give others who have no interest in thinking good talking points then I understand your posts. If you are trying to honestly discuss what Tesla is doing on the financial side, you are killing your credibility.

Lastly, in the not too distant future, MB will build nothing but electric cars provided they survive the transition. It is inevitable. There is a limited amount petrified liquified dead dyno out there which means we will transition to electric. Its just a matter of time and, in the case of legacy OEMs, an ability to adapt or die.

Landers

I don't disagree with a lot that you wrote, but this I disagree with what I quoted. Until Tesla is making money what they are trying to do is irrelevant. If they were trying to make more money in the disposable diaper business and if successful it would make their profits more than Apple each year I would applaud them for their effort, but until they do so who cares. Financially what Tesla is doing is what many businesses do and never make it. They bring in X and spend X+Y. As long as they can keep up with Y they are fine, but at some point that is not sustainable.

Tesla is a fine company that has not shown to have a business model that works yet, who designed their cars very smartly IMO (although I am not their target market). They made a quick (extremely short distances) car that has new, but limited, technology and knew that most buyers would absolutely overlook the shortcomings. That is it.

lolachampcar

Which is good as your "vision" of how companies grow and disrupt existing markets will not compete with my investment goals I'm cool with that.

Just out of curiosity, between you and I which one or both has started multiple high growth companies, failed as some and succeeded at others?

Landers

That's like saying that because you have been married 5 times and I have been married once you are better at marriage.


Nice straw man argument. I don't care if you have started 10 companies or 0 companies. Spending more than you bring in will never be a fully sustainable business. Furthermore you have probably started and grown more businesses than Tim Cook (or enter your CEO of choice here) and there isn't a person in the world that would say you are better at running a company than he is (and I can't stand him, but his stock price speaks for itself).

The facts are people have discussed the financial aspect of Tesla and without subsidies and without a profit they are correct that it is not fully sustainable yet. I suggest you do some due diligence also. There are numerous companies who began to "disrupt existing markets" that failed miserably.

lolachampcar

You've answered the question. You do not have experience in high growth companies. And yes, saying I have both failed and succeeded at it is relevant to the discussion, is not a straw man argument and does not mean my unit is bigger than yours; it only means that I have been there and done that all be it at a much smaller scale.

Growing that fast requires consuming every penny in sight; it always has. Expecting a high growth company like Tesla doing what they are doing on so many fronts to make money is foolish. There is plenty to pick on Tesla when it comes to execution and tons of future execution risk but making a blanket statement that they can not do what they are doing is silly. Of course they can.


As for valuation and how you reach one, I will defer to my buddy Dennis
"
Thanks for explaining your approach and thinking. There is one aspect of Tesla's prospects that I have never had adequately debunked by anyone who is long term bearish view on the stock. It is the intersection of demand, growth rate and valuation.

1) Demand - 373,000 deposits received for a $35K+ product based on one 30 minute webcast is unprecedented. To me it shows the depth of demand for the right product from a company that has created a very positive brand image. It is the equivalent of the lines outside the Apple stores when a new iPhone is released but at a 50x price point. Most CEO's would kill for that kind of latent demand.

2) Growth rate - Tesla has about $8B in revenue in 2016 including Solar City. At the point where it is delivering 500K cars in a year it will have at least $27B in automotive revenue plus Tesla Energy and Tesla Solar. So $30B+. Depending on whether you think that year is 2019 or 2020 the CAGR is 55% or 40%. On $8B. That even exceeds the growth rate of the FANGs at an equivalent size, which is truly rarefied company.

3) Valuation - If Tesla exceeds the growth rates of the FANGs and delivers $30B in revenue in 2019 or 2020, how should it be valued? It is likely to have lower margins than FNG, but equal or higher margins compared to AMZN. Do you value it on P/E or P/S? Certainly the market won't value it the same as BMW that is growing 9%/year. The market gives outsized valuations to companies that are growing exceptionally fast because the market is always projecting forward earnings. Can you justify why Tesla in this scenario would have a P/E or P/S less than Amazon's (179 and 3.5 respectively), other than you can't fathom that Tesla could command a $100B+ market cap in 3-4 years?

Based on what you said earlier my guess is you believe there is too much risk to bet on Tesla achieving this growth rate. I can identify 5 categories:

1) Demand - addressed above
2) Competitive - another long topic, but unless you consider the Bolt a threat the earliest we will see a potentially credible competitor is in 2018 with the Audi Q6, followed by Mercedes in 2019 and BMW in 2021. Plus there is the long distance charging infrastructure issue for all of them
3) Availability of capital - definitely a risk, hasn't been an issue in the past and it appears that Wheeler/Musk are de-risking here with more prudent management of capital and OCF growing now that they are at a 100K annual delivery rate.
4) Execution - This is the big one. We will know in 12 months.
5) Elon factor - Hard one to quantify. Will he get defocused again? Do another acquisition from left field? Thumb his nose at Wall Street?

I guess the bottom line is are the risks so great that you have to apply a huge discount factor to what Tesla could potentially achieve in revenue and valuation in 3-4 years? Otherwise, do you agree that if Tesla does reach $30B in revenue in 2019 or 2020 that it deserves a $100B valuation at that time? If not, why not?
"

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1880931/

C280 Sport

You got owned and it is your own fault. You clearly have too much time on your hands coming to website talking bad about a car you do not even own. I do not go over to Tesla, BMW, Audi forums and blather on and on about we should not buy them. We had a thread that started out very informative and respectful that compared the Tesla Model S to the Mercedes-Benz S Class from a person who had experience with both. However, we had a fan boy derail the thread and turn it into a why MB sucks and Tesla is amazing thread updating and posting day by day telling us everything about Tesla. So for *****s and giggles we now have a thread about why not to buy a Tesla. I guess some people cannot take a joke. And now once again the fan club come in to back up their fellow comrade.

WEBSRFR

Thanks for sharing this. To add to that at the end of the day what will matter is if Tesla offers a more compelling car to purchase for the same money and based on actual sales figures they are obliterating the competition.

Tesla since their inception has been tracking the Ford/Model T growth curve. They will likely revolutionize the car industry and automobile production just like Ford did and with the future of the car being electric it is going to be increasingly difficult for legacy combusting car companies to take on tesla in the electric car segment, especially lacking the investments Tesla has made on technology and batter cell production.

El Cid

I subscribed to CR for a long time, but quit this year due to their changing format and lower quality in auto reviews and testing.
They are enamored with Tesla and even admit it. So they are biased.
Last year, Tesla was number one in owner satisfaction AND also below average in reliability. This reporting/rating comes from the same owners!!!!
Reliability reporting is based on something broke; owner satisfaction is based strictly on how you feel about the car.
This thread has proven that Tesla owners believe their cars are perfect and will rate them so on any survey/poll they can. Fanatic does not begin to describe them.
MB owners are a much larger group and contain many who are more objective about their own vehicles and the brand in general. Same with BMW, Lexus, Audi, etc.
Tesla if often left out of surveys simply because it is such a small group.
AND it does not matter how many Model 3's have been ordered; they haven't been purchased yet.
Motor Trend has a nice article contrasting the Tesla Model S and the Bolt. The Bolt may do serious damage to Tesla in the future.