Mike P

Learned Gents:

My uninformed belief......based on history and the history of low dealer veracity.

Often dealers will put prospective buyers on "the list", especially with a new model. Reality sets in when the prospective "buyers" need to get out the checkbook. I'm a diehard SL guy but there is a declining market for cars like these. I bought my first SL in 1986......and still have it with 272 miles. There was a modest demand, but I got 7% off MSRP. The new R129 hit the market and after an initial rush, discounts were widely available-----7% off again. The same story with the R230 and R231 ( both 7% discounts), although each series had less consumer demand. Why would we think the R232 is going to reverse the aforementioned trend?? If anything the R232 will accentuate the downward trend.

Done with my predictions but open to other spins.

Mike--------will wait for that 7% off especially with the current recession (2 consecutive negative GDP quarters as per historic definition not the Brandon definition)

mkraft3003

That is a very easy question to answer. When in the past history have you ever been able to buy almost any brand and have it appreciate or be worth what you paid for it after a year? We are in unprecedented times and you can throw the history out the window. A Honda or a Kia is worth more than a person paid for it after driving it a year. That has never occurred before and was typically only seen in the Ferrari world.

There is still a global part shortage and still global shipping logistics issues. Supply for almost every brand has still not caught up with demand and I don’t anticipate that occurring for at least 6-12 months. The fact that you got 7% discount on the past has no relevance to the current car climate. Again these are uncharted times.

if you don’t mind waiting 2 years for the car I would assume you will be correct and be able to buy it at a discount. At that time you may be paying 8- 12% interest on a loan and that saving is out the window. Also please factor in the price increase that will inevitably occur for each of those 2 years.

A 150k at 4.9% gives you a payment of $2824. Wait for that 7% discount and assume the msrp remains the same. The great discount you got is now 139k and IF interest rates are 8% in 2 years your payment is $2829. Wow that waiting for the discount doesn’t really pay off. Now factor in that MB raises the price of the car 3% per year, that 150k car now has a msrp of 159k. That big 7% discount means the car is 147k in 2024/2025.

Wolfman

FWIW. There will be no shortage of SL's moving forward and ADM will dissipate rather quickly and yes, I do not see the new SL reversing the trend of being sold at a discount. In my humble estimate, this will not take 2 years to occur either...

benzbell

I ended up paying a 12k dealer markup on a 2022 GLE 63S. I ordered it on 4/14/2022 and it came in on 7/25/2022 which is lightning fast and with no constraints on any options. I felt lucky to get it and that a 12k markup was reasonable enough to me. Instead of trying to out guess the economy, waiting and speculating what could happen in the future. I now spend my time driving and enjoying the car instead and avoiding the brain damage. Anyone looking at an SL I'd imagine 7% isn't going to make you or break you. Life is too short - just my opinion.

Wolfman

Agree that discount shouldn’t be the driver but if not leased, this car will experience eye watering depreciation with its 22 MY designation and traditionally low resale value.

AMG SUV’s fare much better in that department.

mkraft3003

my SL is at the VPC and should be heading to dealer soon. I am still on the fence about buying it for the exact reasons you stated. As mentioned in other threads I bought a Carrera S 3 months ago (at msrp) when I got tired of waiting. I can get out of it for what I paid but thinking 1-2 years down the road I know the 911 will hold most of its value and the SL is unknown. I suspect the SL will get hit hard and not sure if it’s worth it at this point.

Mike P

MKraft3003:
You have made many salient points but I'm only partially in agreement. Paying 8-12% for a toy was never my strategy.......writing a check for an entertainment device might be a better approach. I consider myself a patient man that could easily pass the marshmallow test ( true for only about 20% of the population). I'll wait for the SL63E ( or whatever it will be called)...........this has 2 advantages: 1. discount off list 2. hopefully the bugs are less.

These are highly discretionary consumer decisions........and no 100% right approach.

Best regards
Mike

BACnMercedes

I bet ADM goes away sooner vs later. Has no one else been watching the inventory slowly creeping up?

California John

Not in SoCal.

branmin

Not So in FL!

places

I think within a year or so MSRP will be attainable with little effort. IMO the G is still the MB king of ADM’s and I see that market dropping.

Right now pent up demand will fuel but not for long. Mid 200’s for a 63 is simply absurd. Especially for year one gremlins.

Of course some that paid ADM will say the opposite.

Wolfman

There are regional differences of course.
Convertibles are a hard sell here in the Twin Cities.
Dealers have sold less than 10 SL’s for the last model year and any cab went at a discount.
Getting triple net for S63 or S65 cabs was the rule.

At this point you can get a SL without ADM.

BACnMercedes

Yes! I have a small local dealership and two of their three currently on the lot are 30 days old.

HAWKiS63

And now even more than 130 (as good as) new AMG SLs available here, in all different colors, configs, etc, :
https://suchen.mobile.de/fahrzeuge/s...&sb=rel&vc=Car

Most without premium and already below par......

Mike P

The doubters concerning discounts might have been slightly wrong. Just because a few of us have "SL fever" doesn't mean the car will be a big seller or command a premium. Combine the aforementioned with recession ( 2 negative quarters of GDP not the media spin) the bubble is already breaking. I assumed discounts by spring or summer 2023.........I was also wrong.........way sooner.

mkraft3003

that’s not correct. The cars listed with discount are in Europe. Major difference right now. I’d be willing to wager there is not a single discount on the SL in the US for at 4-6 months.

You keep saying rescission but that has very little effect on this market. People that are spending 150k+ on cars aren’t feeling the same effects as someone spending 35k on a car. Ferrari just announced its suv with a starting price of 400k and they’ve sold out for 2 years. Lamborghini just released they are sold out until 2024. There is a lot of industries and wealth that are recession proof (or resistant). Fortunately the sky is not falling but you can keep waiting for your 7% discount. Life is too short and if someone wants a car they should go buy it. You have no clue what tomorrow will bring. just my .02.

places

LOL, SL is not Ferrari or Lambo money. Poor comparison. Entirely different demo group.

150K is not that much anymore, look at a loaded S, GLS, or just about any V8 Benz. They are all approaching or exceeding 150K. How many of those are cash? The SL historically has a far more ecomonically diverse set of buyers. Cash, finance, or lease. Many even lease through the business. Thinking that a chunk of the SL market is not effected by the economy is short sighted.

mkraft3003

I guess we will disagree. This is what Michael Knoller, global head of marketing and sales for AMG said the demographics were:
But this decision is also predicated on servicing a particularly valuable consumer. "The SL customers are more loyal customers. So, it is not only marketing to keep an icon alive. But also to meet customer expectations to our portfolio," says Knoller. He adds, "And the household income is quite high." Edwards's data backs this up. "For the SL specifically, [the buyers] are older men who earn more than most mere mortals," he says.

Most of the SL owners that my dealer sells to are very high income individuals that the SL is one of many cars they own. It is usually a second or third car and spending 150k for a convertible with not much storage space is very different from spending that for a daily drive car. Again, just my opinion and time will tell if they can’t sell them.

mercedesmax

People keep confusing SL 500 buyers with AMG buyers. Completely different classes. The people buying the new SL aren't the old SL buyers. They are younger, and more affluent. Looks like peak demand for the new SL is in the South and the West. Younger more diverse buyers with lots of liquid wealth.

Alan Smithee

People are naive if they think the high end car market…new or collector markets…will bounce through a downturn without impact. Wealthy people were unscathed during the last recession, but a 15% discount was the norm for a 911…no doubt the same or more for an SL. Those days are coming back…high rates, low residuals, and dealer greed are not sustainable.

mkraft3003

there will 100% be an impact but not sure how quick we return to the old days of walking into a dealership, having a large selection of colors, getting a discount and walking out with a new car. These dealers (and companies) have seen the difference and increases in their bottom line. I believe that inventory will stay scarce (either from chip shortage or artificially) so these companies can maintain their astronomical profit margins. I do think the days of ADM for most cars will come to an end rather quickly and the dealers will lose clients by this practice. We are already seeing 2 months of slight down turn in the used car market. However prices are still greatly inflated from what they should be.
Now if MB goes crazy on the SL supply chain and the US markets sees a ton of inventory then we may see quick discounts and heavy depreciation. I have not heard of any source that confirms (or denies) that inventory on the SL will pick up.

places

Of course he is going to stay this to justify the price. Too early to tell if accurate. Ferrari SUV likely going to existing owners hand selected. Nothing like the SL market where you get bludgeoned by the dealer. Household incomes for SL owners were always high, nothing new there. Love the "mere" mortals statement. Nice.

mkraft3003

If history repeats itself the SL will be a huge hit for a few years and near the end of the model run they won’t be able to give them away. I bought one in 2017 and got 50k discount as the car had been sitting forever.

places

AND you know this how? "More affluent" what does this mean? You have secret access to every new SL owner and order bank? There will be overlap, young and new. To say the SL buyers aren't the old SL buyers is naive and baseless. I would bet that the majority of current SL owners are perfect and potential candidates for the new SL, now whether they like the 232 enough to pull the trigger is secondary. No one is confusing anything.

mercedesmax

Well, since I am one of the people actually selling these cars I do know who is buying them. I also sold the 231, regular and AMG. That was an older buyer for both cars.