Which lease offer will be less per month?

I may or may not buy out - it depends on if I am living in NYC at that time.

Otherwise I want nothing down, 12000 miles a year, typical lease.

It all depends on the program. Also depend on the money factor and what the residual is. For example my dads BMW 535xi was $10.00 less per month on a 24 month lease than on a 36 month lease.

Take a look at how long you normally keep a vehicle and try to match that with the lease term.