Boo2

You must be a broker.

1) Let's go back to the basics. First, as interest rates go up bond prices (not YIELDS) go down and stock (equity) prices go up. (I won't teach you everything so figure it out why). Second, you should have defined what the net present value of a stock's future expected cash flows was even further to add clarity. Taking the present value of a stock's future dividend payout involves both the growth rate and the expected rate of return (not necessarily the interest rate).

2) I never said that inflation was dead, only that is was at a low enough level not to be of too much concern for the near term. A good indicator is to watch oil prices which are currently in a reasonable range.

3) I won't even touch this one for the sake of time; but just remember that it was war that helped bring this country out of the great depression.

4) I will clarify that I was looking into an overall ROI for 15 years.

I get my info. from reading the paper and from work. I figure we are about the same age so I DON"T claim to be an expert; at the same time I would not attempt to regurgitate a daily fact sheet if I didn't understand it (Interned with Morgan Stanley in college so I know how it works). I admit I have strayed a bit from equity securities since I mainly support fixed income portfolios, but the basic fundamental principles are the same. We use the same swap curve for our models and we hedge with similar derivative strategies. Just defending myself.

Sorry, everyone. BACK TO CARS!!!!:p

benzomonterey

THIS THREAD HAS RUN IT'S COURSE

dasMafia

you are VERY perceptive.... but back to the issue at hand (and ina very frank and polite tone)

however... figuring the NPV of a stocks future cash flows (I was skipping the ugly part to get to the point pefore) requires you to discount the whole damn thing back to time=0 (now). The rate that the cash flows are discounted by is figured one of several ways and no matter the method, the fed rates influence it directly (although it is not the entire composition of the figure, it is a part of it). now, growth rates are also important, BUT the fed rates do not predict or represent growth rates. now, if we are to believe that the fed raises rates when the economy is growing, then I can see a direct (although protracted) correlation between rates and stock valuations.

BUT the larger the denominator, the smaller the quotient... which gets us right back to where we started... this is exactly what happened in the 80s and again in the late 90s... the fed raises rates and the market keeps going up, never really reacting to a "re-valuation" of sorts, eventually, the bottom falls out and people start jumping... we've sesen it before.

on another note... if rates go up, that makes borrowing more expensive, which makes spending more expensive for large purchases (homes, sports cars, boats, ANY DEBT SPENDING)... this SHOULD in turn, create a flow of money into the equity markets (and debt-intrument markets), and increase the demand for the equity issues, therefore creating an escalation in price. BUT... with higher rates come higher yields in the bond markets, which attracts more investors to the higher (theoretically) certain returns, which will DECREASE demand for equity issues... will this be a large enough shift to offset the increased demand from increased savings... no. so it is possible that an increase in fed rates would indirectly trigger an escalation in equity prices...

I'm still not sure what your point is though... please enlighten me further.

PS... sorry if my typing sucks, I hate proofreading.

phattbam

i drive my c320 to college, i dont want to but i sold my commuter gti to make room for a new mini cooper s coming hopefully by year's end. yes i am afraid of others hating on it, but i just have to hope that no one really cares. hopefully the mini will come sooner so i dont have to risk my baby C out there..

Boo2

Sorry tried to PM you for the sake of other forum members, but it was too long B

I apologize for the confusion in my reasoning. My response to question #1 had two parts. The first part was NOT disputing that increased rates would decrease any time value formula. Rather, it was stating an overall effect. The second part was just to point out that the valuation formula to use is the constant growth formula; not the standard NPV. Since we are both "Finance" guys we don't need to go into detail about the mechanics of npv and the nuances of its valuation derivatives. I was indirectly implying the fund flow issue (supply & demand) since npv is only a part of the market value of an equity security - include earnings multiples, trading volume, CAPM components such as beta, etc. Stock appreciation due to VOLUME increases was what I was hoping you would see since the trend has been that as bonds go up, equity securities go down & vice-versa. Because of the other factors affecting stock price, the correlation of interest rates to stock price is not 1 to 1 like it is for bonds (but YES, it decreases it!!!).

"... if rates go up, that makes borrowing more expensive, which makes spending more expensive for large purchases (homes, sports cars, boats, ANY DEBT SPENDING)... this SHOULD in turn, create a flow of money into the equity markets (and debt-intrument markets), and increase the demand for the equity issues, therefore creating an escalation in price."

We can go into detail later about the inflationary control measures of interest rate changes if you like. The latter half of this statement is what I have been insinuating all along (except for your side about flow of money into the debt-instrument markets).

"BUT... with higher rates come higher yields in the bond markets, which attracts more investors to the higher (theoretically) certain returns, which will DECREASE demand for equity issues... will this be a large enough shift to offset the increased demand from increased savings... no. so it is possible that an increase in fed rates would indirectly trigger an escalation in equity prices... "

I repeat, as interest rates go up, bond prices go down - as bond prices go down, yields go up (vice-versa). Based on your quote, I'm not too sure if you understand why yields go up. It is not directly because of rates, but because of bond discounts and bond duration. Demand for equity actually INCREASES. This increase reflects the stock price appreciation. Therefore, as Interest rates go up, Bond prices go down and stock prices go up!!! (Exactly what I stated earlier)

Hope this helps.

B

dasMafia

yeah, i got what you're getting at, just couldn't figure out what you were saying... I understand the bond thing, I was just generalizing (again) for the sake of the forum as a whole.

benzomonterey

Now here is a school car

revstriker

What is that, a Pinto??

greg230

yea a great car.... jsut pray to god you dont get rear ended

KABOOM!

greg

revstriker

Here is the classic college car (or is it the anti-college car??). Somewhere Bohemian Rhapsody is playing......

MIZZOU C320

i just came to the uni of missouri my jr year and have a c320 and its actually not a problem at all. no one bothers w/ it or trys to trash it..... thats all in highschool. most people complement me on it. but one thing is for sure, someone will always have a better car. for me it was our old QB, hes been stylin a new clk430 on 20's so mine nothin close to it. and the best thing about havin a benz... you can get to class a whole hell of a lot faster. just remember this... collage is just a peice of paper that shows you can do it, so go and have fun but make sure you get up the next morning.

benzomonterey

Not only is it a Pinto, it's a Pinto with 9500 original miles. The pic was taken this year. Notice the gas cap is body colored. If Ford did the gas tank repair it would have been replaced with a chrome one.

I only know this from Web site info. I never did nor never will own a Pinto.

jack230

Hmmmm. The more that I look at that Pinto, the more I see some similarities b/t it and my C230K.

revstriker

It looks like it's in great shape! But this begs the question: Why would somebody even want to keep a pinto this long without driving it much? I wonder if it is considered "street legal" without having the tank repair?

Steve H.

My first car was a 71 pinto. Got 150K out of it. It was my "college car" . It did get rear ended by a car doing about 30. Thank god I got the recall work done. Otherwise I would have lost my wife and a future daughter as she was expecting. I didn't know any were still on the road.

Having dealt with a college car for my daughter a couple years ago, we ended up with a used Integra hatchback. It has been perfect. trouble free (knock on wood) and good hauling capacity. I have been impressed. I would buy another in a second.

greg230

my teg was a tank... ir performed well in all sorts of crappy weather, made the treck back and forth to college (pittsburgh to philly) 4 times a year without fault, and ran great every day.

Never once did it strand me.

shame it had all the switchgear of a 12k civic dx

WyattEarp

Temptation, Temptation

I apologize for the digression and/or the lack of focus <i>(regarding the subject: at least I got the college part right, forget about the C Class)</i>; however his last comments on what college is and what it means are by far and large <i>(it just gets harder to pull those 155 mm Howitzers out)</i> completely ignorant.

1) That piece of paper and what one is able to do with it depends largely on your major <i>(unless you are thouroughly connected, then of course you are playing with a handicap)</i>. If you're not sure about how significant your major is go ask the business department what their average GPA is then walk over to Engineering and ask the same question. Finally as an exercise in pure academics ask what the percentage of dropouts are in each department. That will answer degree of difficulty and preparedness in real world terms.

2) For the whole of my life I have known people that relegate a college degree to an insignificant 'piece of paper' and those could be, <i>'please note I said could be'</I>, the same people I run across in professional situations and ask them solve simple problems with techniques learned in college and just cannot do it.

3) In the course of my professional life I can enumerate in two hands the number of people I have met whom I can trust to do the same quality of work as I (e.g. I went to college with my accountant. His major was accounting and he obtained his CPA 4 years later, my major was engineering. His GPA was 3.9 my GPA was 3.0; however, I correct his spreadsheets and calculations on an average 20% of the time. Nonetheless he is one of the better accountants I've found). IMHO I learned everything I needed to learn to advance and do my job well during college, apart from peripheral and/or specific (non-derivable) knowledge. Hence my experience goes directly to negate your remarks regarding the significance of a college degree. It is not just a piece of paper.

Regards
WyattEarp

<B>Disclaimer:</B>
Sincere apologies to all potentially offended parties. Please ignore my comments if they create upheaval in your world.

columbus

...now if I only could find a picture of the Pacer...

columbus

Mike T.

That's a peachy looking Renault 4!

Was it one of the HOT 34 HP 1108 cc models, or the detuned 32 HP 845 cc models?

Greek plates?

revstriker

What a sweet Renault!! Brings back some memories. That's the first car I ever drove where the shift came out of the dash (at least I think that's the same car).

columbus

The first one was an 850 cc; after that, I got a red one with the 34 horses (or chevaux in french). I had German plates - this one looks as close to my first one (it was lime green!) as I could find. I didn't own a digital camera in 1978 (and neither did you, I bet).

The gear shift was something else; it comes right out of the dash. The rod passes over the engine and hooks into the actual shift lever emerging from the fore-mounted transmission. On earlier models, the pattern was inversed, so where your 1st gear would normally be, it was reverse. My mom's first car was like that, and she repeatedly tried to take down the garage wall because of that; one time right in front of the landlord, whose mouth fell open, then he just shook his head and walked away.

Citroen had a similar shifter. They're becoming hot again as part of the retro craze, as seen in the Civic Si and Toyota Matrix. Just kidding, they're not the same.

This car was built like a sardine can, but was easy to fix yourself. Although you needed good welding equipment and an easy hand, or you'd just burn away the sheet metal - that's how thin it was. Once I got into the car and put my foot right through the floorpan; now I could brake and accelerate like Fred Flintstone. That's when I swapped that can for a LeCar R5TS with 64 horses. Yippee! Double-double your pleasure.