Zappa96

Want to buy a new car but don't think its a great time right now and I have some questions:

• When will the new car market normalize (for luxury cars like mercedes)
  
• What about the used car markets? (also for luxury cars)?
  
• I'm trying to find out what the leading indicators are of future supply and price?
  

Anyone have any insight?

W205C43PFL

The market should hopefully get back to normal in early 2023 or late 2022 if things suddenly improve otherwise look forward to 2023. So around late MY23 and early MY24 model vehicles.

If you want to buy a car now, not a lot is lost because your car's trade in value is also high too.

There will always be something better coming out so definitely get it and enjoy it first if you find a good deal. Unless you know the facelift is coming out, or a all new generation is coming out then it is recommended to wait till that comes out so you can either get that new vehicle or get a better deal on the current model.

The leading indicators would then be if you see that vehicles are no longer missing options when delivered like the HERMES module in Mercedes, head-up display, massaging, easy-access kick to open trunk feature, AR feature, etc. and that you see computers are no longer in high demand (chip suppliers prioritize chips for smartphone and computers because it generates them more profit and because chips used in automotive is less advanced).

The very least the HERMES module should be available to be retrofitted in Q1 of 2022.

chassis

2023

This estimate is subject to revision.

ColeBlooded

I read that the used car market will crash in early '23 and the price of new cars will follow. But it's just speculation. I don't think anyone knew covid numbers would get back to where they are now.

superswiss

Definitely all speculation at this point, but an important question is what do you consider normalizing? Don't expect things to go back to pre-pandemic business as usual anytime soon, because luxury car makers like Mercedes have already said they plan to keep supply and inventories low even after the supply chain has recovered, because they've realized that they can focus on higher margin models and make higher profits by selling fewer cars w/o trunk money and discounts. They don't wanna go back to offering incentives and discounts to move inventory. This could also mean dealerships charging above MSRP for desirable models might be here to stay for a while unless customers say enough is enough and start walking away. An economic and financial crash as predicted might change things. Once the market turns back around to a buyers market things will change.

Mr. Toad

I did.

Drunkmonkey

update on this from the industry was late 2022 now into 2023 due to Ukraine supply chain issues

chassis

2023 is the optimistic case.

2024 and beyond looking more likely.

Acta_Non_Verba

I agree with Superswiss - How do you define "normal" going forward?

There are so many dynamics in an interplay that impact the future of the car market it is impossible to predict anything and especially a date of some kind, much less whether any semblance of the past normal will ever return in the future. Here are some:

1. The Pandemic, of course, and how it continues to impact society.
2. Continuing parts shortages some of which are now supplier induced such as chips.
3. The war in Ukraine and impact of precious metals resources needed in auto production.
4. Our government's push toward electrifying the auto industry and their use of governmental tools to accelerate a major change in the industry, via the EPA and other agencies.
5. The Executive order impact on the petroleum industry that probably won't change for at least 2 1/2 years or more.
6. The chronic inflation issue that history shows will eventually become a recession and how fast that will happen, then how long to recover from it.
7. Manufacturers making conscious decisions to limit production (as mentioned by Superswiss) and how that will impact pricing of both new and preowned cars.

A buyers' market might return someday, but when and how it will look is completely unpredictable. For example, a buyers' market might return as a result of a recession; however, if that happens, not everyone will enjoy being a buyer without money, or put another way, it will become a buyers' market for few but not many.

It is a rollercoaster ride which we are all on and cannot get off the ride until it ends.