Ron.s

I stand corrected…my numbers came from an older stock analyst report. GM was $46Mil smaller at Fiscal Year end. I agree with you on the facts but the Liberals…including Biden are peeing their pants every day about how the EV will save us. I’m guessing a lot of younger people, getting their facts on Social Media don’t know any better.

TexAg91

Meh, forget Mr Fusion and the Flux capacitor, how about a hydrogen to dark matter reactor.

shotgun_banjo

My in-laws just placed a reservation for a tesla model Y. I then asked them how long they are planning of keeping it. They said forever then I told them the cost of a model 3 battery replacement and told them to prepare for that in 8-10 years. They kinda scratched their heads and said "what is the point then?" I kinda chuckled and told hem if they are okay in having a vehicle do 80-100 km range in the middle of winter after 8-10 yrs then it should be fine but if not better keep your 13 yr old corolla as that will go 500 km in a single tank of gas and you wont worry freezing to death while waiting for a tow truck.

Gurgeh

...which seems to argue in favor of folks leasing, rather than buying, Teslas. But only 1 in 20 lease the vehicles, compared to 1 in 4 for ICE vehicles overall (and 70% or more for luxury brands). Why? Even with lower early depreciation leasing a Tesla makes no economic sense because Tesla uses sky-high money factors. It almost seems like Tesla is doing everything they can to not have this down-the-road problem in their own hands...

TexAg91

So was doing to research tonight for fun and came across these 3 videos that do a good job of explaining the issues discussed on this thread. Bottomline IMO, it's all about the infrastructure. EV full market penetration is not technically impossible, but we are going to have to make huge investments in infrastructure (and in charging standards) if we want to replace ICE vehicles in the next 15 years.

Videos:

1. The Electric Vehicle Charging Problem - YouTube
2. If Gas Cars Are Banned, Can The Grid Handle Electric Cars? - YouTube
3. Are Electric Cars Worse For The Environment? Myth Busted - YouTube

chassis

The incredible shrinking (EV) gas tank hasn't been mentioned lately.

Take a W166 GLE with a 25 (26?) gallon tank. 20mpg easily gets 400+ useable miles per fillup every day of the year.

No EV today gets 400 useable miles per charge. Add to this, range reduction during cold weather. The gas tank on EVs shrinks as temperature goes down.

Nominal battery range will improve over time. Battery replacement cost and temperature-related range reduction don't seem to be in the narrative. It should be.

TexAg91

Another issue is the EV ranges will need to be closer to 500 miles. Even using DC fast chargers, you can only charge an EV battery ~80% in 30 minutes (Telsa). The charge rate slows after that due to physics, so that last 20% can take another 30 minutes or more. So 80% X 500 miles = 400 miles. That's a big battery, the cost is going to have to get below $100/kWh.

z32

Y would someone want to 'refill' their vehicle that takes >30minutes (to 100% / full)? It does not make sense as ppl are used to spend <5 min at gas station to fill up to 100%. Until battery technologies gets to this <5min full charge, I will think twice getting into any EVs.

Gurgeh

The thing is, that this really only applies for the small number of drivers who frequently drive long distances. I expect that most EV owners will, barring the occasional long distance trip, sometimes go months never using a third-party commercial charging station. Rather, they will always plug the vehicle in at home at the end of the day and every morning have a "full tank of gas" no matter how high or low that "tank" was at the end of the previous day. I think that we'll see rapid adoption of EVs by families that have more than one car. It is a great second or third car, and you'll still have the ICE vehicle for the occasional road trip. Full EV penetration of the market will indeed require very substantial upgrades in EV infrastructure.

whitewagon

Sure. We're on a Mercedes site... we can all afford a second or third car...

Gurgeh

I said families. Many families have 2-3 cars. Sheesh.

shotgun_banjo

For me these are the only way I would hand over my ICE vehicle and completely go EV:

1. Min. range 500 km per charge on -5° C temperature.
2. I can charge it fully in less than 10 minutes in a super charger for 10 years without killing the battery.
3. The battery replacement cost won't be more than $20k
4. Battery life to have 90% of it's capacity at year 10.

If all of these 4 are achieved I will happily hand over all of my ICE cars to the crusher.

W205C43PFL

Sounds reasonable, we are in desperate need of new battery technology. You can only go so far when it comes to fast charging right now with the existing battery technologies. Phone makers experimented with splitting the battery in to two smaller cells so they can charge faster as they charge two batteries instead of one. I don't think that really works on a car so someone needs to come up with better battery technology that is reliable, efficient and sustainable. All 3 things with equal importance.

chassis

Charging speed = Joules per minute = power

Batteries need to accept high power charge.

Charging equipment needs to deliver high power charge.

It’s pretty simple in principle but the implementation will take time. During such time ICE technology will make more advances, as it always does.

nsoltz

The lease on our '21 GLE350 has another 18 months, so at the half-way point this week wife asked what I wanted to do for replacement. "Well, all electric GLB, of course." Ever the MBA-analyst, she asked "So what about your claim that you liked driving a Mercedes on the road for longer road trips?" -- "So we will take your car ('21 Rav4 Prime). And maybe after Oct '23 there will be more charging stations." -- "So you can assure me that there will be ample charging stations across the country, all of which will actually work and won't have cars queued up for hours? And if you don't have the big SUV to take on the road, what excuse do you now have for another Mercedes?"

While I doubt I will buy at lease end, I am afraid that even in 2023 only an ICE vehicle really makes sense for us. The Rav4 Prime makes great sense for her around town and in the immediate area. 50 miles per charge in summer and even in coldest part of winter getting 42-44 miles. Haven't put gas in the car in the 13 months since buying it.

TexAg91

For me personally the most I ever really drive in one day is about 800 miles, usually it’s around 750. I also usually stop somewhere along the way for about an hour or so to eat dinner and stretch a little bit. So if I had an EV with a Real world range at of 500 miles at 75 MPH, I can make that work on a road trip Provided there is an adequate supercharging network without long queues. I could charge the car to 100% capacity overnight drive 500 miles take break, and charge it to 50% in 15 minutes or 80% in 40 minutes and then continue on my way. Battery capacity is getting close but the charging network isn’t.

whitewagon

I will never give up all ICE vehicle for EV. It won't happen in my lifetime

whitewagon

only way EV works is with OTA charging or wave guides in the roads. Also self contained energy sources...

Where do you get the electricity to power chargers that will charge batteries that will power EV?

Where do you get the raw materials to make the batteries that need to be charged with electricity that will power EV?

Where will you dispose of depleted batteries that need to be charged with chargers powered by electricity?

shotgun_banjo

When the time comes that we can have a nuclear power cell like the one that powers Arnold all of our problems will be gone. We just need to be accustomed in seeing this in Fox News "another nuclear explosion happened in a multi-vehicle crash in I-95...."

TexAg91

Watch the videos I posted, they address some of the questions you asked with data. The answer to you questions is today they don’t exist, although battery range is getting close in some cases. However the cost per kWh is still too high. An adequate standardized supercharger network in the US does not exist and will require significant capital investment. Electric generating capacity in the US will need a >30% increase and will also require significant capital investment. If there is a decent return on this capital investment, money won’t be a problem. Is there a business case to justify the capital investment in needed infrastructure?

Thus I don’t own an EV at the moment. I would buy a PHEV with a 50 mile all electric range and a ICE to keep me going on my merry way when the battery depleted. That would meet my needs perfectly, and would reduce my fuel consumption by 80%. Moreover, being able to “refuel” it at home overnight would increase my quality of life by reducing the amount of time I have to spent waiting in line at Costco to refuel.

whitewagon

the world needs dreamers for sure... Best luck to you.

TexAg91

Thanks, best of luck to you too.

BTW, I don’t own an EV, but I will keep an open mind. Right now, the disadvantage far outweighs the advantages IMO. I also don’t advocate for the outlawing of the ICE…just in case that wasn’t clear.

Lucky 777

EV technology has a very long way to go before it can compete with the ICE. As with most things, follow the money trail to discover the real reasons behind it.