His comments on the future of electric automobiles are particularly salient,

"I do believe EVs are the future to automotive transportation. especially with the improvements in battery technology . . . . there will no longer be any case to be made for an internal combustion engine except for nostalgia".

A little later he asked how EVs are going to take over and when - how is it going to happen and he said, "Just let the costs come down naturally, the batteries will get cheaper and lighter weight, the charge times will come down and eventually it will be just as easy to find a charging station as a gas station and EVs will just take over naturally, no mandate will be necessary".


PS - he also said it is going to take a while, maybe 25 years . . . .

 

For those who might not know who Bob Lutz is. Bob Lutz – Automotive Industry Contributions

• Leadership Roles: Held senior executive positions at BMW, Ford, Chrysler, and General Motors.
  
• BMW: Instrumental in shaping the BMW 3 Series and brand’s driver-focused identity in the 1970s.
  
• Ford: Oversaw development of cars like the Ford Explorer, helping create the modern SUV segment.
  
• Chrysler: Credited with product revival in the 1990s, championing bold vehicles like the Dodge Viper, Jeep Grand Cherokee, and LH sedans.
  
• General Motors: Served as Vice Chairman (2001–2010), reinvigorated product design and quality, leading to cars like the Cadillac CTS, Chevrolet Malibu, and the Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid.
  
• Philosophy: Advocated “product-led recovery,” emphasizing design, performance, and customer appeal over cost-cutting.
  
• Author & Commentator: Published books on the auto industry (e.g., Car Guys vs. Bean Counters), known for outspoken views on management, regulation, and EV adoption.
  
• Legacy: Widely regarded as one of the most influential “car guys” in modern automotive history, blending business leadership with passion for design and performance.
  

 

Fossil fuellers can't dissappear fast enough.

 

If that day ever comes, it will be after a lot of pain has been inflicted on the market.
Right now, Chinese EVs are bricking as their manufacturer’s doors close.
Because of connectivity, current owners can’t even get their cars to lock ur unlock.
See post in Current Events.

 

Not every auto exec accurately forecasts the future. Most exist in a bubble of think-alikes, isolated from reality and customers. MB backpedaled on it's EV timeline, and more recently so has GM -- exclusively electric by the mid 2030's isn't the future. Long term -- 50 years out -- EVs might be all there is. Or maybe some alternative technology will emerge. Consider the number of innovations introduced 50 years ago that are now obsolete. Anyone own a fax machine, a VCR, a floppy disk, or projection TV? Who predicted the successor technologies? Self-driving vehicles will kill personal vehicle ownership. Why buy and maintain a vehicle when you can summon one within minutes from a driverless Uber service? The experience is the same -- climb in, sit back, articulate your destination and occupy yourself otherwise than with driving. The propulsion technology will be something riders won't care about, much less know about.

 

The rider may not care but the operator will and operating costs will win the day.

 

You can get from New York to Los Angeles on foot.
That mode of transportation surely has the lowest operating cost.
Even though walking has the lowest operating cost, it will certainly not win the day.
It also has the benefit of having the least impact on the climate.
Still with all its benefits, it’s potential for being atop the leaderboard, will not prevent its rightful place at the bottom of the leaderboard.

 

My issue with most predictions about the future of cars is that they are made in the bubble of how we use cars today. EVs are being designed to do everything ICE cars do and are being marketed as essentially a direct replacement. That approach has rarely worked out for new technologies. New technologies generally take over if they also trigger a paradigm shift. A good recent example are smartphones. Smartphones didn't displace flip phones because they are more efficient at making phone calls. On the contrary. They replaced flip phones, because we do everything but making phone calls on them. Something similar has to happen with EVs. Today, most people are stuck in the rut of having to daily drive and commute to live their lives. EVs offer lower operating costs so all that driving many people have to do becomes cheaper, but it doesn't change the rest of it. Everybody is still stuck in traffic and hates their commute.

I've long said, that owning a personal vehicle is one of the worst financial decisions anyone can make. Having perpetual lease payments isn't any better. Personal cars just sit around about 96% of the time. We spend all that money on owning a car, so that we can just drive anywhere we want that 4% of the time. Anything else with such a low usage at that kind of price tag would not make it, but we keep doing it with cars, because for many people there's no real alternative for getting around. As said above, we are probably seeing the more likely future of EVs with Waymo and Robotaxis in general. Why owning a car, pay for parking and such if you can just hail one on your smartphone and you don't have to listen to a random Uber driver who wants to tell you about his real passion? You get all that a personal car offers, a quiet ride and piece w/o a stranger in the car, but you don't have the cost of owning and maintaining it.

 

When I was in 6th grade, I read a book titled “Boy Gets Car”.
After reading it, I realized that cars are what they appear to be superficially, a means of transportation, a convenience, a tool to make modern living easier.
But at its core, as the book revealed to me, a car represents one of the highest expressions of physical freedom.
It resolves one of man’s most basic urges, fight or flight.
It also represents a conduit to survival.
In order to be the disruptor that SuperSwiss is referring to, those basic instincts will have to be encompassed.
Not denying the next iteration will be a disruptor, so not disagreeing with SuperSwiss at all.
Just pointing out what I believe to be an essential component of the car craze since it’s inception.

 

I've never read that book. Just looked it up and it was published in 1960. Simpler times, although traffic was already an issue back then. US population in 1960 was almost exactly half of what it is today. This perceived freedom that cars offer is a falsehood. Especially during a flight situation. Below is a random picture I just googled from September 2005 with vehicles jamming northbound I-45 in Houston as residents were fleeing Hurricane Rita. Every evacuation pretty much looks like this. As somebody once put it in a meme: "Does your freedom have enough lanes?".

 

Whereas there are infrequent times when cars can be impeded, and thus limit a car owner’s freedom.
But this does not at all address man’s deep desire for freedom, and how the automobile has come the closest to satisfying it.

 

At least the glorified idea of cars in advertisement projects this idea of freedom. It's a dream that's largely been created by lobbyist and isn't really rooted in reality. That's my point. Infrequent? What's everyone's average speed during their commute? Travel times have statistically been increasing across the nation year after year. Cars are impeded on a daily basis. With cars it's one of those things where it only takes one catastrophic event to realize its weakness. It's that one time where you must get out of where you currently are and you can't because all the roads are jammed. All the previous times when you drove off somewhere for pleasure suddenly don't matter anymore when you can't just drive off when you really need it. I don't disagree with your conclusion in principal. The issue I'm pointing out is car dependence. Using a car for pleasure and to get away during good times does give a lot of freedom. The problem starts when you depend on the car to go anywhere. The part that gets ignored in this freedom argument is that true freedom involves choice and the individual's ability to choose the best option at any given time. If the car is your only option, then you no longer have true freedom. Freedom becomes an illusion at that point and yes the car does an amazing job at feeding that illusion.

 

Did you guys hear the story Bob Lutz told re. the ultimate power of the consumer? He told of a failed product. The story went like this:

"We had the best raw materials, we had the best marketing team, we had the best dealer network, we had the best manufacturing facility, yet at the end of the day our product was a colossal failure".

"What on earth happened?"

"The dogs didn't like the dog food."

 

^^ Yes, that's the problem of direct replacement. The dogs had a taste of better food that they preferred. Whoever comes up with a revolutionary mode of transportation in the future, that solves traffic and all the other issues that cars have, will be the winner. Not sure what that mode of transportation will be or if there will be one, but I'm just gonna say this. I regularly spend time in Japan and never need a car. Every few minutes a high speed train leaves Tokyo station in every direction and local trains take you everywhere. High speed trains are faster for long distance travel than cars, so it's objectively and subjectively superior. For example, Tokyo to Osaka is 320 miles and it takes 2.5 hours by high speed train w/o being subject to traffic. The same journey by car if you could drive 75 mph constantly would still take over 4 hours. With more realistic speeds, Google says almost 6.5 hours.

Some kind of a personal transportation mode has a place in rural areas where trains are difficult, but that's not to say this couldn't be a fleet of robotaxis. But in urban areas with good transportation system that isn't blind to everything not being car, there are much better ways to get around. As they say, if all you have is a hammer, then everything looks like a nail. That pretty much describes the current transportation thinking. All we are doing now is replacing the gas power hammer with an electric power hammer, but we are still treating everything as a nail.

 

It is difficult at best to compare the US to any other country.
Japan is roughly the size of California.
Japan is somewhat similar to Europe, where cities are packed more densely.
Extensive public transportation works in that environment, much like the subway in NYC.
But, in NYC, no one wants to ride the subway, because of all the downsides to subway travel.
We do not have a population that is homogeneous, and honorable like Japan does.
We have a society that is very much fragmented, and given to baser natures, much due to differing cultures, values, heritage and upbringing.
What is more, there is no public will to assimilate all into the American culture and heritage.
So we are left with what there is to make due.

 

Honestly, I simply don't buy this argumentation. It always comes up. This country once had excellent public transportation, but then the car lobby systematically bankrupted it and tore it down. You can read up on this and since then the country has put all their eggs into road transportation. The public transportation systems that do exist such as the NYC subway have seen decades of underfunding, so compared to similar public transportation system such as the Underground in London, it's outdated, old and nasty. There's now an effort to better fund it using the congestion charges in NYC. We'll see where that goes, but good public transportation has to be properly funded. If all the billions that are wasted every year in road upkeep, would go towards funding alternative transportations, we'd have a world leading public transportation system.

As for the size argument, the USA has 50 states. If each state would invest into their own train system and then at the federal level they'd focus on interstate connections, it could be all done. That's for example what's currently happening in Europe. In the past, each country has been focusing on building their own transportation system, but traveling from one country across other countries by train hasn't been great. This is changing now with aligning schedules and the various train systems working together. It can be done. Europe is larger than the USA. Many people tend to forget that. Europe as a whole has more than double the population of the USA.

Let's be honest about things. The USA has simply been asleep behind the wheel for decades when it comes to transportation infrastructure. If you prefer a more comparable example, then let's look at China. Political situation and cultural differences aside, China is about the same size as the USA with big dense cities and large rural areas in between. They built a nationwide high speed rail system from the ground up in 20 years. What significant transportation infrastructure project has the USA accomplished in that time? Pretty much nothing, other than widening some highways here and there that we all know do nothing other than creating worse congestion a few months down the road.

 

I see your point, and I don’t disagree.
The road system has its drawbacks, certainly.
Rail transportation definitely has its merits.
The downside to rail is that it is heavily weighted and biased to cargo.
People transport is a low priority.
I often used the rails to get to Chicago from out of state.
Religiously, the passenger trains would be held up to give way to freight trains.
To hell with on time departures.
Showing up early was an exercise in futility, and hour waits or longer were the norm.
There were only 2 days a year that passenger service was on time, and given priority, Christmas Eve, and Christmas Day.
On those days you could count on leaving at the scheduled departure time.

Truth be told, I bit my tongue and held my breath every time I got on. It was somewhat of a clash of civilizations.
Until we can address that, there will be no demand for mass transit, outside of those having no alternative, unless mass transit is mandated.
That won’t be a fun day.

 

The heart of the American culture is freedom under the laws of the land. It's not an illusion that a vehicle, requiring gas or electric, is an extension of your feet. The car is defined as an enabler. Showing traffic congestions, living in an area prone to traffic congestion may change the meaning of a car to the specific population. Nonetheless, a car, in general terms, still gives you the "freedom" to go when you want to."

Different modes of transportation have their advantages at different times, different places, and for different enjoyment. An example: When France has a transportation strike, I had a rental car, and my vacation was not disrupted. When I was in Japan and wanted to go from Tokyo to Hiroshima, the Shankinsen bullet train was the quickest AND most relaxing (green car). When I went to Wazuka for the matcha tea plantation, I rented an electric bicycle from Kamo Station, and rode up to the destination instead of taking the bus. However, the vastness of the US can be enjoyed in a car (RV or camper etc) based on the road system that we have. The congestions in the majority of US cities don't occur 24/7.Driving around at 2am-3am, or 7am on a Sunday, and most roads are yours to enjoy.

Without roads, there is no "freedom" in a car (vehicle) with exception of off road vehicles. However, the massive road system in the US does enable us to use the car, a symbolic extension of our feet allowing us the general freedom to go where we want and when we want on our own time in the comfort (if you have a luxury car) and privacy of the car cabin. When autonomous level 5 arrives, people will continue to buy cars. Now what purpose you bought a car for is another topic.

 

In the USA yes, because large portions of the rail network is owned by BNSF and Union Pacific. Amtrak owns the Northeast Corridor, but in the rest of the nation they just borrow the tracks so to speak and they are at the bottom of the totem pole. It's also crazy how little of the train system is electrified. Ownership structure has to fundamentally change. Passenger traffic has to have priority as it is the case elsewhere and cargo either runs on separate tracks or has lower priority. The high speed train networks have their own dedicate tracks, otherwise they don't work. I'm not sure people realize just how far behind the 8 ball the transportation infrastructure is in the USA. I've lived here and elsewhere and it's freighting, I can tell you this much. We are even struggling keeping our planes up due to an outdated, ancient flight control system that should have been replaced a long time ago. The rest of the First World is getting ahead of the game along with China and outbuilding the USA futureproofing their infrastructure and we are getting back to banking our future on fossil fuel and killing transportation projects such as the California High Speed rail. Not saying that project is perfect, but at least we are doing something to get away from the reliance on cars.

 

Traffic happens when everybody else needs to drive to work and run their errands. If you want to drive to work and do your errands at 2am when the roads are empty, be my guest. Missing the point I think. Jobs are in the cities and most traffic in the cities is not caused by the people who live there, but by the people who live elsewhere with little job opportunities and then commute into the cities. NYC finally had the courage to do something about it and charge a congestion fee to everybody who drives into the city center.

 

Some would see it as courage.
Others would see it as an authoritarian, nanny state, bent on taxing and spending the populace into oblivion.
Centralized planning, in contrast to allowing market forces to work, doesn’t work at all.
I am a native New Yorker, but I wouldn’t touch the state or the city with a 10 meter cattle prod.
My brother lived there his whole life, but just moved away, and is happy as a clam to leave NY in the rear view.
I will visit the state from time to time, but I worry and wonder how the people there are able to live there and make it.
A lot of high value New York natives are migrating out of the state, due to the crushing hand of NY politicians.
Kevin O’Leary won’t invest there because the state is so hostile to business.

 

It happens in places where everybody wants to be. Money is very effective at steering behavior. I couldn't care less if Kevin won't invest there. He likes to keep the money himself and pay less than minimum wage to employees if he could, and otherwise he goes on and moans. People can't afford to live there because people like him don't pay a living wage and get rich doing it. It's the same here in California. It's expensive to live here, because so many want to be here. The media likes to publish claims about the made up California exodus. Yes, some people have left and are leaving, but other than during the pandemic, the population has only grown. People who've been here a while and bought real estate like me are doing quite well here. It's tough for the newcomers and low income folks. You can always live in Kansas. I once had business there in Topeka. Nobody seems to wanna live there. No congestion on the highway during commute hours. First time I went there I didn't rent a car and instead the customer picked me up at the airport. Once we were in the car and driving he said, "Welcome to the most boring state". There are always cheaper places to live, but you get what you pay for I suppose.

 

Bob Lutz is my Hero. He brought over the Pontiac GTO from Holden Australia with an LS1 V8 and 6-stick. At the time, I was a GM Employee through Hughes Aircraft and got into my first Holden for $175/month with GM Smartbuy payments. Eventually bought it outright because of its phenomenal performance and 29mpg. It looked like a Grand Saturn (a mix between a Grand Prix and a Saturn). With GMS Discount transitioned to Pontiac G8 GT, 2010 Camaro 2SS/RS, 2015 Chevy SS manual, and 2017 Chevy SS automatic. Eventually was kicked off the GM Employee Discount program in 2019 and placed my order for a 2020 AMG Wagon that got delayed to my 2021 AMG acquisition in May 2021 because of the Pandemic. TTV8 AWD was amazing but I got out of it after 3 years in my retirement. Realized it only makes sense to lease those $125K supercars. I still own my bulletproof 2015 Chevy SS manual with 55,362 miles. Picked up a 2024 Maverick XL to haul stuff between my New Mexico and Athens GA Residences with trips up the coast to Reston VA and my NYC Birthplace. Recently purchased a 2025 GR Corolla manual after Johnny Lieberman reviewed it on Jay Leno’s Garage. At 65 these will be my last ICE cars. Not a fan of the screens and lack of buttons in these new-fangled cars which seem less analog and more drive-by-wire. The tech wasn't the problem since I’m an experienced Aerospace Engineer who operated 3 computer systems simultaneously while recording high-speed MWIR and LWIR FLIR cameras for Laser Lethality Testing at the Missile Range. I love owning cars and driving them from Coast to Coast.

Was raised taking the NYC Subways and Buses from Queens NY to Fordham Prep in the Bronx. When I commuted to LAX weekly on SWA took the Torrance #8 Bus to Raytheon in El Segundo to beat the life sucking Los Angeles Traffic. I walked 1 mile home to my residence during the week using Shuttle buses in the afternoon to reduce my walk by almost half. Did this for 3 years until 2011 and flew home to family in NM either on a Thursday Night or Friday afternoon. I could not move my family to LA, buy an affordable home in a good school district then get stuck in traffic for up to 2-3 hours. That's nuts. If I remained a NYC resident probably would not even own a Performance Vehicle or my 2012 Ducati Diavel. Mass transit would be my only choice. Fortunately am retired now and enjoy the wide open spaces of the Desert Southwest and would rather drive 21 hours to GA than fly on these dangerous 737 latest variants. I did a stint in the US Air Force so I have relevant experience with Aviation. Trains are getting better in the US and I would now only take the Amtrak from DC to Penn Station in Manhattan or to Boston South Station. The I-95 corridor roadways are too bumpy and the Traffic is horrendous which will shorten your Lifespan. I'm looking to the new Amtrak high-speed Acela service for my remaining days especially after I sell my Residence in the Land of Enchantment as I get too old to enjoy my automotive passion and outdoor wild west activities. I feel for you gearheads stuck in Metro Areas. I'm not looking forward to Uber's Autonomous ride share in the future but will accept it. My Son drives Uber Black while attending GA Tech in Atlanta and my Daughter who just returned from a 2-week Japanese Vacation has all the Apps as she navigates from DC-NYC-Cambridge on her weekends away from Microsoft in Reston.

 

I lived in Wichita for a couple of years.
We told all our friends and family, it’s a great place to live, but you wouldn’t want to visit there.
None of our family paid a visit while we were there, despite invitations, and I don’t blame them.
It isn’t much for a tourist attraction.
The most interest in the city, that the city had seen in decades was the resurfacing of BTK.
I saw his house before it was torn down from the crush of rubberneckers wanting to see it.
I also lived in California, the Monterey area for a couple of years.
It was a great place to live and to visit.
Cannery Row.
Carmel.
Laguna Seca.
17 mile drive.
Monterey Bay Aquarium.
Easy access to San Francisco.
Easy access to Santa Cruz, the boardwalk.
Salinas Valley.
Salinas Friday Night Car show.
Vineyards galore.
Hearst Mansion, Naciemento Resevoir, San Antonio Lake, San Antonio Mission.
I took advantage of every minute there, and don’t regret it, but unless things change there drastically for the better, I would never return to make it my home again.
To each his own.
I definitely don’t begrudge the people who are happy, satisfied, content, or what have you.
Neither do I downplay the valid criticisms of people who have to live there, but are not happy, to say the least.
As far as the automobile, as long as it wasn’t Friday night in Salinas, or everyday in the city of the world’s biggest parking lot, during rush hours, I had open roads, and miles of smiles.

 

Yes, with all said I do like driving here as long as it isn't during the weekdays when all the nuts are on the roads. It seems to get worse. People impatient running red lights and stuff, it's crazy. The more I don't drive anymore during weekdays the more I notice the crazies when I do drive. But getting in the car on the weekend and timing it to get out before all the Sunday drivers clog up I-80 and then head for Napa, Sonoma and the canyons and rip it up there in my AMG is pure driving joy. Then during the week I fortunately don't have to partake in the daily rat race. I can do most of my errands on foot and have the luxury of timing my driving when the roads aren't too crazy. With the nice weather, mild climate all year around, and not too much rain, walking and riding my bike is nice. All the sunshine just makes for a more happy living. I get it if people don't wanna come here. If you do have to commute here, it's a freaking lifeforce sucking miserable existence. I always lived close to public transportation and still do, so back when I did have to go to the office I could just take the train. I grew up in Europe and didn't get a driver's license till age 24. Just hopping on trains with my annual pass allowed me to get anywhere I wanted to go and once I had a license, I drove for joy mostly, rather than need and I managed to keep it that way even living in the car centric USA. Lived in Chicago for a while right downtown and worked out of my apartment on the 47th floor watching others crawling along on the highway every day. No thank you. Don't know how people don't revolt.