The future of internal combustion engine cars
09-05-2022, 05:16 PM
#176
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Humans live in a very thin sliver of gas wrapped around a big lump of largely molten metal, and we can only survive in that place within some very narrow parameters. The last thing we can afford to do, as a species, is stuff that up because bottom line theres nowhere else for us to go. We just become extinct.
09-05-2022, 05:18 PM
#177
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@Frenetic 's post above was an "industry source." There are plenty of Federal services that show the same thing.
I think most people posting on this thread think EVs are in the future, but that materials and infrastructure can't support the projections made by regulators and governments.
It's interesting to see how much the EV market share has dropped according to his table.
If I were an automobile manufacturer I would be quite concerned.
And as I said earlier, I was once thinking my next car would be an EV, but the more I look into it, the less attractive it becomes.
There seems to be a lot of PPPPPP* in the materials and infrastructure departments here. That needs to be solved before all these dreams can be achieved. Who would have thought you would need electricity to power an EV? 🤔 Apparently, no one in power.
*Prior planning prevents **** poor performance
I think most people posting on this thread think EVs are in the future, but that materials and infrastructure can't support the projections made by regulators and governments.
It's interesting to see how much the EV market share has dropped according to his table.
If I were an automobile manufacturer I would be quite concerned.
And as I said earlier, I was once thinking my next car would be an EV, but the more I look into it, the less attractive it becomes.
There seems to be a lot of PPPPPP* in the materials and infrastructure departments here. That needs to be solved before all these dreams can be achieved. Who would have thought you would need electricity to power an EV? 🤔 Apparently, no one in power.
*Prior planning prevents **** poor performance
What I see is that infrastructure and materials are not prepared for today’s EV forecasts. I don’t see EVs going away. The manufacturing profit opportunity and chance to jettison the parasitic dealership concept is too compelling for automakers. This is a once-in-a-century opportunity for automakers to rewrite the deal with unions and dealers.
I see EV forecasts coming into harmony with infrastructure and materials capability to support.
Follow the money:
Carmakers including laggard Toyota are investing tens of billions today in battery production factories. Minerals exploration companies are actively drilling test holes and finding economic lithium deposits in the United States.
Electric utilities will eventually get their acts together, and utility regulators will allow utilities to invest the necessary capital and to recover it through creative rate structures.
EVs are real today and will grow in the future. A primary question is at what rate will growth unfold. EVs declining in unit volume from today’s level is a very low probability scenario in my view.
Last edited by chassis; 09-05-2022 at 05:43 PM.
09-05-2022, 05:26 PM
#178
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Well, necessity is the mother of invention.
There’s obviously some time before everyone has an EV, regardless of legislation. If you consider that most cars sold are used—and that the majority of people get “new” cars every 7 to maybe 8 years (unlike maybe us)—the amount of turnover necessary to reach a critical mass is still way more than a decade away, and that’s a long time in technology terms.
I know EPRI has an research arm dedicated to EV charging infrastructure and development. I’m sure every Green Energy person (and I’m not saying that in a derogatory manner) has dreams of a renewable energy utopia, but until battery storage comes of age, that’s a pipe dream. However, as EV battery technology develops, it’s not hard to imagine that grid or consumer-based battery storage also matures over the next decade.
There’s obviously some time before everyone has an EV, regardless of legislation. If you consider that most cars sold are used—and that the majority of people get “new” cars every 7 to maybe 8 years (unlike maybe us)—the amount of turnover necessary to reach a critical mass is still way more than a decade away, and that’s a long time in technology terms.
I know EPRI has an research arm dedicated to EV charging infrastructure and development. I’m sure every Green Energy person (and I’m not saying that in a derogatory manner) has dreams of a renewable energy utopia, but until battery storage comes of age, that’s a pipe dream. However, as EV battery technology develops, it’s not hard to imagine that grid or consumer-based battery storage also matures over the next decade.
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09-05-2022, 06:05 PM
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I think that will happen (at least short term) based on the momentum. I’ve had two people ask me if my new Porsche is Electric. Joe public sees the press and mandates and a lot just accept them as inevitable. The acid test will follow after more are on the road and there are more real life experiences. The $24-26,000 battery on 10 year old cars will get some attention from those that can only afford/want used cars. Retrofitting a home isn’t cheap in many cases. My Nephew called me to get advice on DIY adding a power supply to his home because of the high bids from Electricians. (Probably wanted me to do it) After a discussion with his wife they couldn’t come up with any logical reason they needed an EV. They cancelled the order for the new car and bought another ICE vehicle.
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chassis (09-05-2022)
09-05-2022, 06:25 PM
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what they also forget is that the energy in oil and gas ultimately comes from the same source as so-called renewables. But when you burn that stored energy to move us around you convert it into a form that cannot easily be renewed or reused; it just becomes waste.
Humans live in a very thin sliver of gas wrapped around a big lump of largely molten metal, and we can only survive in that place within some very narrow parameters. The last thing we can afford to do, as a species, is stuff that up because bottom line theres nowhere else for us to go. We just become extinct.
Humans live in a very thin sliver of gas wrapped around a big lump of largely molten metal, and we can only survive in that place within some very narrow parameters. The last thing we can afford to do, as a species, is stuff that up because bottom line theres nowhere else for us to go. We just become extinct.
But everything captured by renewables such as, let's say, solar which is maybe 20% efficient, becomes waste in the form of heat. So that heat is dumped into an ever-warming atmosphere. Then the part that is put to work to move cars, is also dissipated as heat.
Some call it thermodynamics.
I've been called Green in several circles. Started a recycling center in the early seventies, was in the solar business in the '80s, helped sponsor the first reverse metering legislation in the country (allowing people to sell back power to the grid), and apprenticed with a couple of famous passive solar designer/authors. Built a passive solar house that required NO HVAC system, as monitored and certified by the PUC. I also work with two large utilities, WAPA, BurRec, USACE, EPA and several State agencies.
I am an ASE and Brand certified mechanic, have run service departments and dealerships. Attended the GM design studio.
I see through the flim-flam. I hope we come to our senses and come up with a better solution than just thinking a "law" can save the planet.
I have four gas chainsaws, two garden tractors and a lawn mower that I am selling this month, in preparation for battery replacements. They will cost two to three times as much as their gasoline counterparts, and I'm willing to participate at that scale.
But not at the transportation level at this time.
Will today's EVs be like the early Chevrolet Vega engine, developed as one that would be cheaper to replace than repair? Lot of people jumped on that bandwagon too, which resulted in replacement engine shortages. The engines lasted 40 to 50,000 miles and you couldn't repair them. Oops. Didn't plan for that!
Then there was Mazda RX3 and the aforementioned Olds diesel. Politically correct, hastened into production.
Technology moved on quickly and the cars were obsolete.
I know we now have interim batteries and interim motors in these cars. And yes, government mandates have hastened the next generation, probably soon to be upon us. I'll wait for it.
Last edited by mikapen; 09-05-2022 at 06:43 PM.
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Drone_S213 (09-06-2022)
09-05-2022, 07:26 PM
#181
Mikapen, that’s why I asked this question because I don’t know. We get to witness the revolutionary transition first hand. We really are on the precipice and can peer over both sides of the cliff.
It’s a complicated question and will depend on a number of factors.
1. EV vs ICE demand
2. ICE production
3. Gas prices
4. EV vs ICE car prices
Here’s another thought, what happens if ICE production starts to nose dive, outpacing the drop in actual demand, will that have the opposite effect on the price of our cars? I don’t necessarily think so because there’s so much innovation going on in the EV side whereas ICE engineering work has all but stopped. I get the challenges facing EVs, but there are a lot of smart people working on this problem. Solid state batteries that require less exotic materials and can hold a huge charge are around the corner to name just one.
In any case, I paid over $100k for my car. I planned on unloading it before the warranty period ends in four years. I hope I can sell it for a reasonable amount. That’s why this thought crossed my mind.
It’s a complicated question and will depend on a number of factors.
1. EV vs ICE demand
2. ICE production
3. Gas prices
4. EV vs ICE car prices
Here’s another thought, what happens if ICE production starts to nose dive, outpacing the drop in actual demand, will that have the opposite effect on the price of our cars? I don’t necessarily think so because there’s so much innovation going on in the EV side whereas ICE engineering work has all but stopped. I get the challenges facing EVs, but there are a lot of smart people working on this problem. Solid state batteries that require less exotic materials and can hold a huge charge are around the corner to name just one.
In any case, I paid over $100k for my car. I planned on unloading it before the warranty period ends in four years. I hope I can sell it for a reasonable amount. That’s why this thought crossed my mind.
09-05-2022, 08:05 PM
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It's a long thread but probably worth reading. It has all the characteristics of a useful thread, including thread drift.
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09-06-2022, 03:58 AM
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Bladerunner 2049?
I agree in general. Too many heat Islands with large stretches of asphalt and airports. (NOAA hasn't calibrated their models to accommodate the 10-year-old buoy monitors in the southern hemisphere, which show that the lower population down there, with fewer heat Islands, has not caused the warming that the northern hemisphere has caused.) It's all political.
But everything captured by renewables such as, let's say, solar which is maybe 20% efficient, becomes waste in the form of heat. So that heat is dumped into an ever-warming atmosphere. Then the part that is put to work to move cars, is also dissipated as heat.
Some call it thermodynamics.
I've been called Green in several circles. Started a recycling center in the early seventies, was in the solar business in the '80s, helped sponsor the first reverse metering legislation in the country (allowing people to sell back power to the grid), and apprenticed with a couple of famous passive solar designer/authors. Built a passive solar house that required NO HVAC system, as monitored and certified by the PUC. I also work with two large utilities, WAPA, BurRec, USACE, EPA and several State agencies.
I am an ASE and Brand certified mechanic, have run service departments and dealerships. Attended the GM design studio.
I see through the flim-flam. I hope we come to our senses and come up with a better solution than just thinking a "law" can save the planet.
I have four gas chainsaws, two garden tractors and a lawn mower that I am selling this month, in preparation for battery replacements. They will cost two to three times as much as their gasoline counterparts, and I'm willing to participate at that scale.
But not at the transportation level at this time.
Will today's EVs be like the early Chevrolet Vega engine, developed as one that would be cheaper to replace than repair? Lot of people jumped on that bandwagon too, which resulted in replacement engine shortages. The engines lasted 40 to 50,000 miles and you couldn't repair them. Oops. Didn't plan for that!
Then there was Mazda RX3 and the aforementioned Olds diesel. Politically correct, hastened into production.
Technology moved on quickly and the cars were obsolete.
I know we now have interim batteries and interim motors in these cars. And yes, government mandates have hastened the next generation, probably soon to be upon us. I'll wait for it.
But everything captured by renewables such as, let's say, solar which is maybe 20% efficient, becomes waste in the form of heat. So that heat is dumped into an ever-warming atmosphere. Then the part that is put to work to move cars, is also dissipated as heat.
Some call it thermodynamics.
I've been called Green in several circles. Started a recycling center in the early seventies, was in the solar business in the '80s, helped sponsor the first reverse metering legislation in the country (allowing people to sell back power to the grid), and apprenticed with a couple of famous passive solar designer/authors. Built a passive solar house that required NO HVAC system, as monitored and certified by the PUC. I also work with two large utilities, WAPA, BurRec, USACE, EPA and several State agencies.
I am an ASE and Brand certified mechanic, have run service departments and dealerships. Attended the GM design studio.
I see through the flim-flam. I hope we come to our senses and come up with a better solution than just thinking a "law" can save the planet.
I have four gas chainsaws, two garden tractors and a lawn mower that I am selling this month, in preparation for battery replacements. They will cost two to three times as much as their gasoline counterparts, and I'm willing to participate at that scale.
But not at the transportation level at this time.
Will today's EVs be like the early Chevrolet Vega engine, developed as one that would be cheaper to replace than repair? Lot of people jumped on that bandwagon too, which resulted in replacement engine shortages. The engines lasted 40 to 50,000 miles and you couldn't repair them. Oops. Didn't plan for that!
Then there was Mazda RX3 and the aforementioned Olds diesel. Politically correct, hastened into production.
Technology moved on quickly and the cars were obsolete.
I know we now have interim batteries and interim motors in these cars. And yes, government mandates have hastened the next generation, probably soon to be upon us. I'll wait for it.
After 2035 and beyond I'm curious to see:
#1 How efficient will it be to Pump and Desalinate the Pacific Ocean to feed Lake Meade/Hoover Dam.
#2 Will the MIT-led MOXIE experiment eventually produce enough oxygen on Mars to sustain life for a Colony and Elon Musk?
#3 Will Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's National Ignition Facility finally have a major breakthrough in the generation of "Net" Energy from its Laser Fusion Experiments?
#4 How many more Nuclear Power Plants will come online in stable environments protected against conflict and mother nature?
#5 Will Oil & Gas Stocks still remain Profitable?
Keeping my ICE and Hybrid vehicles until they breakdown regardless if they appreciate or depreciate in value...Wife and kids will purchase an EV.
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mikapen (09-06-2022)
09-06-2022, 04:33 PM
#184
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Most of my classmates who expressed interest in Politics avoided Thermodynamics, Math, and Science College Courses in general...
After 2035 and beyond I'm curious to see:
#1 How efficient will it be to Pump and Desalinate the Pacific Ocean to feed Lake Meade/Hoover Dam.
#2 Will the MIT-led MOXIE experiment eventually produce enough oxygen on Mars to sustain life for a Colony and Elon Musk?
#3 Will Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's National Ignition Facility finally have a major breakthrough in the generation of "Net" Energy from its Laser Fusion Experiments?
#4 How many more Nuclear Power Plants will come online in stable environments protected against conflict and mother nature?
#5 Will Oil & Gas Stocks still remain Profitable?
Keeping my ICE and Hybrid vehicles until they breakdown regardless if they appreciate or depreciate in value...Wife and kids will purchase an EV.
After 2035 and beyond I'm curious to see:
#1 How efficient will it be to Pump and Desalinate the Pacific Ocean to feed Lake Meade/Hoover Dam.
#2 Will the MIT-led MOXIE experiment eventually produce enough oxygen on Mars to sustain life for a Colony and Elon Musk?
#3 Will Lawrence Livermore Laboratory's National Ignition Facility finally have a major breakthrough in the generation of "Net" Energy from its Laser Fusion Experiments?
#4 How many more Nuclear Power Plants will come online in stable environments protected against conflict and mother nature?
#5 Will Oil & Gas Stocks still remain Profitable?
Keeping my ICE and Hybrid vehicles until they breakdown regardless if they appreciate or depreciate in value...Wife and kids will purchase an EV.
Last edited by TexAg91; 09-06-2022 at 07:34 PM.
09-06-2022, 06:05 PM
#186
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09-06-2022, 06:14 PM
#187
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I saw a lot of facts vs opinions. We all have opinions, you can call it regressive but that’s just another opinion.
Show us the real Plan with some facts. Good intentions are best served by having some PRACTICAL solutions. Something Politicians seem unable to communicate.
Show us the real Plan with some facts. Good intentions are best served by having some PRACTICAL solutions. Something Politicians seem unable to communicate.
09-06-2022, 06:19 PM
#188
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Mother Earth Speaks
Here's a Letter to the Editor that I am posting to our local newspaper:
While looking across our lake appreciating the beautiful clouds and distant lightning, guess who called me — it was Mother Nature.
“Greetings,” she proclaimed. “Quit trying to fool me. It’s not nice. You can’t control my climate which I self-regulate. It’s my orbit and the Sun. I get less than a billionth of Sun’s radiated energy! It fluctuates a lot, giving me hot and cold cycles. It’s complicated.”
She continued, “I have prepared myself for human occupation of my delicate thin crust. In a past warm period I grew a tropical rain forest in North America. I did this for the dinosaurs but mostly to create fossil fuels for humans to use to raise drastically their standard of living.”
She continued, “I was able to melt North America’s glaciers about 12,000 years ago and I’ve been warming myself ever since, preparing for The Coming Ice Age. Burning of fossil fuels has helped a little although I expect to get less help as more EVs are brought on line.
“Those molten metals in my core have a mind of their own and have reversed my North and South Poles every 300,000 years or so. My last reversal was about 780,000 years ago so it’s long over due. I’m sorry that this will really mess up salmon migration and your GPS.
“I do have one request for you: In operating the massive power grid required to support the fleet of EVs I will ask that all electrical current in the grid and all EVs travel in one direction for several days. Their magnetic fields will help mitigate the effects of my Pole reversal at the peak of the transition. That will be a big help. Stay warm for now and goodbye.”
And that was it. I thought, “Wow! It IS complicated.”
09-06-2022, 08:08 PM
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Oh, wait! said the human.
We have the tools knowledge and opposing thumbs to conquer nature.
We are rich so we can spend thousands of trillions of dollars, and we're not fooling around. We'll pass laws and everybody will feel good, cuz 300 billion people are so much more powerful then your molten core, thin crust and breathable atmosphere. We'll have this all fixed by 2035!!! We will prevail.... will prevail..... prevail....pre..va..i.l...
Mother nature, turning her back, mutters.. Fools...
We have the tools knowledge and opposing thumbs to conquer nature.
We are rich so we can spend thousands of trillions of dollars, and we're not fooling around. We'll pass laws and everybody will feel good, cuz 300 billion people are so much more powerful then your molten core, thin crust and breathable atmosphere. We'll have this all fixed by 2035!!! We will prevail.... will prevail..... prevail....pre..va..i.l...
Mother nature, turning her back, mutters.. Fools...
Last edited by mikapen; 09-06-2022 at 08:10 PM.
09-06-2022, 09:17 PM
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I’ll try to make this my last post here…yay!
I’m guessing that many people won’t take this seriously…doesn’t fit the narrative and many won’t understand the science behind your story. The NOAA has the data but for some reason is deathly silent.
Very well done by the way….
I’m guessing that many people won’t take this seriously…doesn’t fit the narrative and many won’t understand the science behind your story. The NOAA has the data but for some reason is deathly silent.
Very well done by the way….
09-27-2022, 09:23 AM
#191
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A couple of updates on BEV’s…
China has had over 3,000 battery fire events and insurance rates are now 20% higher than for equivalent ICE vehicles.
Interesting article on Tesla battery issues (the ones that supposedly last the life of the car)
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/m...es-199550.html
China has had over 3,000 battery fire events and insurance rates are now 20% higher than for equivalent ICE vehicles.
Interesting article on Tesla battery issues (the ones that supposedly last the life of the car)
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/m...es-199550.html
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chassis (09-27-2022)
09-27-2022, 08:42 PM
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And massive new investment (many billions of dollars by many companies) continues into battery production factories, and into retooling ICE-related factories to become EV-related factories. EVs are coming.
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Ron.s (09-28-2022)
12-25-2022, 01:11 PM
#193
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Mother Earth Speaks again
Here's my next installment of my conversation which appears as a Letter to the Editor in our local paper (summitdaily.com):
I was honored to receive another call from Mother Earth. “Greetings,” she proclaimed.
I was honored to receive another call from Mother Earth. “Greetings,” she proclaimed.
“I’ve told of my efforts over the past 13,000 years to warm myself in preparation for the coming ice age. I do what I can, but really, I’m waiting for when the moon is in the Seventh House and Jupiter aligns with Mars to really get serious. Gravitational pull from these, my three heavenly siblings, can bring me closer to or farther from the sun. This effect and the sun’s temperature cycles are the significant factors that influence my climate.
“Humans are naive thinking their activities have any significant influence on my climate compared to my siblings and the sun. Human experiences are from just a blink of an eye of my billions of years of fine-tuning. My sea level has varied more than 400 feet. It is presumptuous to assume that the climate and sea levels as they are today are how they ‘should be’ in the future.
“My climate will continue to warm, mostly out of my control and yours, but I’ll take whatever help I can get to prepare for the coming ice age. So I was pleased to see that Mauna Loa is finally spewing massive amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
“I’m also pleased that more installations of massive solar panel farms are coming online. About 30% of the small amount of the sun’s energy that I receive is reflected back into space in the form of light and heat (that’s why you can see me from the moon). Those black solar panels get really hot while absorbing more and more of the sun’s energy, helping me warm. Plus those batteries get hot. Some even catch on fire. Till next time. Goodbye.”
I thought, “Wow! It’s complicated.”
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