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Even that article you linked explicitly states what I said in the first paragraph.
Are there environmental reasons. Yes. But this rodeo is being driven by China. That entire market is going electric and if Ford and Chevy or Mercedes wants to survive, they have to change too. And, we better get behind them or we’ll all be driving Chinese-designed and manufactured EVs https://business.cornell.edu/hub/202...-coming-first/
That’s not the reason just the excuse for the action.
That’s not the reason just the excuse for the action.
Let me elaborate…
The Paris Climate Accord specifically addresses the move to EV’s. Everyone agreed long ago.
The Auto Companies had already announced plans to move to total EV production with dates and huge $’s already invested.
It’s easy to blame China as an excuse rather than admit that the Govt. is responsible.
Auto Companies are not motivated by mandates when they are moving as fast as they can, IMO.
I’m not against EVs. I am against blindly legislating the end of ice vehicles. I will be voting for state politicians who will change this law. I didn’t know about this new regulation and was quite shocked to learn if it.
The Paris Climate Accord is window dressing. Most G20 countries are not meeting what was outlined in that document. However, it did push a lot of countries to try and cut back. China, which is probably one of the most failing countries in meeting the overall Paris Agreement, freely burns coal but saw an opportunity to be a world leader in one technological industry: EVs, besting us yanks. They have pushed EVs more than any other country and dare I say our Auto industry is reacting more towards that than any rule put out by the State of California. California isn’t pushing them: the largest car market in the world is.
The Paris Climate Accord is window dressing. Most G20 countries are not meeting what was outlined in that document. However, it did push a lot of countries to try and cut back. China, which is probably one of the most failing countries in meeting the overall Paris Agreement, freely burns coal but saw an opportunity to be a world leader in one technological industry: EVs, besting us yanks. They have pushed EVs more than any other country and dare I say our Auto industry is reacting more towards that than any rule put out by the State of California. California isn’t pushing them: the largest car market in the world is.
Elon is way ahead of China. He's even built a factory there which is shipping cars across Asia already.
Well you want to know why he built a factory there? It’s the first of its kind he built outside of the United States.
Listen, I’m not saying we are not pushing this as well but the main reason things are accelerating like crazy right now, in my opinion, is China. It’s a fear of being left out of the largest market in the world. It’s a fear of not being the technological leader in an industry ripe for innovation. The entire domestic auto industry fears China will overtake them, globally. They wouldn’t jump through these hoops just to save the planet and there’s not any federal legislation requiring EVs. Yes, that is right. None, zero, zilch.
China is doing this in the spirit of the Paris Accord, but they are doing this more to finally be a world leader in something other than cheap labor.
Well you want to know why he built a factory there? It’s the first of its kind he built outside of the United States.
Listen, I’m not saying we are not pushing this as well but the main reason things are accelerating like crazy right now, in my opinion, is China. It’s a fear of being left out of the largest market in the world. It’s a fear of not being the technological leader in an industry ripe for innovation. The entire domestic auto industry fears China will overtake them, globally. They wouldn’t jump through these hoops just to save the planet and there’s not any federal legislation requiring EVs. Yes, that is right. None, zero, zilch.
China is doing this in the spirit of the Paris Accord, but they are doing this more to finally be a world leader in something other than cheap labor.
That fear is well founded. China has shown that it knows how to build complex products quickly, in volume, and with good quality. Yes the issue of cheap labor is there just as it is in much of the world, and should not be ignored. But EV's will succeed not because of anything Washington does, like many things they will react after the fact and be in catch up mode on this. Just look at this latest change to EV incentives, effectively subsidizing and putting an admittedly small protection layer around US manufacturers. Hell, Ford just increased the Mach E and Lightning by between $3k and $8k, and GM did the same with the Hummer EV. Hardly co-incidental.
Well you want to know why he built a factory there? It’s the first of its kind he built outside of the United States.
Listen, I’m not saying we are not pushing this as well but the main reason things are accelerating like crazy right now, in my opinion, is China. It’s a fear of being left out of the largest market in the world. It’s a fear of not being the technological leader in an industry ripe for innovation. The entire domestic auto industry fears China will overtake them, globally. They wouldn’t jump through these hoops just to save the planet and there’s not any federal legislation requiring EVs. Yes, that is right. None, zero, zilch.
China is doing this in the spirit of the Paris Accord, but they are doing this more to finally be a world leader in something other than cheap labor.
Back to the original question-50% Mandate-compete with China or a Political statement?
You are correct about China being a threat but I disagree with the FOMO reasoning. It’s always been about competition, innovation and efficiency in the Auto Industry. Electrification is something that the Auto Companies began seriously starting in 2018-19. It takes several years from design to production for an Automobile. The Audi E-tron, Porsche Taycan, GM Hummer and numerous others didn’t appear overnight. The movement to EV’s started years before Biden’s political statement that the mandate is necessary to counter China. Auto companies announced the end of ICE development and Billions committed to EV production long before. The 50% mandate is simply part of Biden’s “Green” campaign promises during his alliance with Bernie and the Squad in 2019. Calling Mandates necessary to compete with China sounds better politically than the truth. The truth is very simply that the Biden Administration and others are banning Fossil Fuels as soon as possible, Period.
The only way to give the US a real competitive advantage against China is through things like import restrictions, tariffs and the recently announced EV incentives for US based production. These have consequences or retaliation potential.
China is a threat in so many ways not just Electrification. For example Solar Panels & Wind Farm components are the other legs of clean energy. The US and Europe are far too reliant on China for many things. China has been stealing our technology for years and gaining a competitive edge with cheap labor. Notice how a lot of China’s Ships and Planes resemble ours, coincidence? We train huge numbers of their students in College. What do we get in return?
Tesla is by far the current leader in EV technology, EV sales and is building a plant in China-to compete in that market. Several other ICE based factories preceded them in China years ago…to compete in that market. How the CCP regulates the Chinese market and cheaper labor is a reason to build a factory there. (With the risk of more theft)
Other Automobile Companies may become the leader and some may not survive the next decade. There appear to be several innovations that will help define the winners.
Mercedes appears to lead with Electric motors. (Barron’s) The YASA Axial Flux motor is 1/3 the weight, more efficient and 3 times more powerful than Tesla motors. More here: https://cleantechnica.com/2022/08/17...-amg-vehicles/
Solid State batteries will be another game changer.
Numerous Labs are experimenting with Battery Technology designed to use lower cost materials, less precious metals anddenser energy storage.
Mercedes, GM and Tesla have improved energy density of their batteries. VAG and Toyota have years of research and the financial means to be leaders. Research and Development is often secretive so no one knows what other innovation might be coming.
My question isn’t about the value of my ICE vehicle in 4-5 years. What will an EV purchased today be worth in 4-5 years?
not sure why there is so much love/hate for EVs or EV policy. i can see that the the word "mandate" gets people upset. whether or not CA realizes those goals by 2035, who knows. LOTS of things to accomplish before then. but hey, if norway is doing it, why can't we. norway is now at new EV sales > 50% .
in our household, we are not EV fanboys. but we took the leap and we have had one of our cars in the garage be an EV since 2014. we just wanted to give it a try, be a part of the solution. and be a part of the future. like most EV owners, we were worried at first. is there enough range? is the battery going to leave me stranded? does it not feel as nice as a grumbling V8? all valid questions. we have tried 3 teslas and now have an audi etron (primarily because tesla service is lacking and we missed the luxury features of our previous mercedes vehicles).
granted we have a single family home and 2 drivers and we can have our "backup" gas guzzler as our 2nd car for when we need both at the same time and for family long haul trips. single people who live in condos/apts/townhomes currently do not have an easy way to charge up every night and don't have a 2nd car in the household "just in case". it'll get there though. just like computer processors leapfrogged each year and doubled in speed very few months, so will charging technology. one day, you will be able to "fill up" your EV in 10 minutes. one day, there could be a few charging stations at every gas station that exists now.
i get it. i love my V8's. we have had many and just got another one. but to be totally honest, the more years that have passed, the more the gas guzzler stays in the garage and the more miles get put on the EV. 8 years ago, i would have never guessed that would be the case. annually we put 5,000 miles on the X7, and 18,000 miles on the etron. give it a try, it may surprise you, as it did for us.
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My question isn’t about the value of my ICE vehicle in 4-5 years. What will an EV purchased today be worth in 4-5 years?
It might well be obsolete tech, for the reasons you posted above. In fact, I don't see EVs succeeding unless those developments are incorporated very soon. The Industry will have moved on. Interim EVs may not be worth scrap value if recycling of interim battery tech fails.
As often happens, Government incentives cause implementation before it's ready for prime time.
Think of the 1978 Olds Diesels. Rushed into production to beat the Gas Guzzler tax. Advanced concept, poor execution. Then GMs answer to that - the 4-6-8 engine. Resale for the advanced tech? 1/3 that of s conventional engine.
If ICE improves their thermal efficiency a few percentage points, they will be more Green than EVs, say some camps.
A lot more affordable, too.
not sure why there is so much love/hate for EVs or EV policy. i can see that the the word "mandate" gets people upset. whether or not CA realizes those goals by 2035, who knows. LOTS of things to accomplish before then. but hey, if norway is doing it, why can't we. norway is now at new EV sales > 50% .
This has never been about EV hating for most of us. Some posting here keep trying to form that narrative.
We almost bought an E-Tron but my wife decided the she would not give up her 2018 SQ5. Actual experience #1. Below is a pic of what happens when you have a lithium battery failure after 5 months of ownership. We had been traveling through remote areas much of the preceding 4 months in winter conditions. Roadside service hours away. No jump start…flatbed only option after dragging the car out of my garage on skids.
Event #2-After #1 above, we started planning trips differently and paying more attention to EV issues. Recalls with “don’t park you car in the garage”.
My order for a new Porsche got kicked back at least 2 months because of a vehicle fire on a boat that could not be extinguished because of the intensity that Lithium batteries burn. The Felicity Ace sank with over 4000 cars and burned so hot that we will never know the cause. It was confirmed by the crew that it started in a bay with EV’s. https://people.com/human-interest/ca...ks-after-fire/
There are a lot of reasons for skepticism about mandates for Bleeding edge technology other than the fire hazard & safety. Telling people about the issues seems to bring out a defensive posture even from non owners.
Edit- Those Norway (small country) numbers are heavily weighted with Hybrid Diesel Engine vehicles.
This has never been about EV hating for most of us. Some posting here keep trying to form that narrative.
We almost bought an E-Tron but my wife decided the she would not give up her 2018 SQ5. Actual experience #1. Below is a pic of what happens when you have a lithium battery failure after 5 months of ownership. We had been traveling through remote areas much of the preceding 4 months in winter conditions. Roadside service hours away. No jump start…flatbed only option after dragging the car out of my garage on skids.
Event #2-After #1 above, we started planning trips differently and paying more attention to EV issues. Recalls with “don’t park you car in the garage”.
My order for a new Porsche got kicked back at least 2 months because of a vehicle fire on a boat that could not be extinguished because of the intensity that Lithium batteries burn. The Felicity Ace sank with over 4000 cars and burned so hot that we will never know the cause. It was confirmed by the crew that it started in a bay with EV’s. https://people.com/human-interest/ca...ks-after-fire/
There are a lot of reasons for skepticism about mandates for Bleeding edge technology other than the fire hazard & safety. Telling people about the issues seems to bring out a defensive posture even from non owners.
Edit- Those Norway (small country) numbers are heavily weighted with Hybrid Diesel Engine vehicles.
Don't feel you're safe with your Cayenne. Porsche has an issue with both lithium and AGM batteries in current vehicles. This is my 992, with AGM, just last month. Total battery failure, general thought it's as much the BMS as the batteries themselves. Took them 2 weeks to diagnose and replace the battery.
Don't feel you're safe with your Cayenne. Porsche has an issue with both lithium and AGM batteries in current vehicles. This is my 992, with AGM, just last month. Total battery failure, general thought it's as much the BMS as the batteries themselves. Took them 2 weeks to diagnose and replace the battery.
Nice car👍 Yes, there has been a lot of chatter on Rennlist-Cayenne 9YO 2019+. New Lithium $2100 and try to find one! They are now shipping the Cayenne with AGM and no recent issues that I could find. There will still be a small 48 volt to run the PDCC but it won’t brick the car if it fails. I had a bad AGM in my 2020 Mercedes, March 2019 build. As long as my wife thinks the Cayenne is safe it will be OK.
Nice car👍 Yes, there has been a lot of chatter on Rennlist-Cayenne 9YO 2019+. New Lithium $2100 and try to find one! They are now shipping the Cayenne with AGM and no recent issues that I could find. There will still be a small 48 volt to run the PDCC but it won’t brick the car if it fails. I had a bad AGM in my 2020 Mercedes, March 2019 build. As long as my wife thinks the Cayenne is safe it will be OK.
Thanks. Apparently they fit Lithium batteries in all 992's in some markets and all 992's with rear steer regardless of where it's sold. I thought I was OK because I don't have RWS but sadly nope. Seems OK again now but lets see!
Anyway, battery tech is definitely changing across both ICE and EV's so the simple old world we grew up with seems to be a thing of the past.
Thanks. Apparently they fit Lithium batteries in all 992's in some markets and all 992's with rear steer regardless of where it's sold. I thought I was OK because I don't have RWS but sadly nope. Seems OK again now but lets see!
Anyway, battery tech is definitely changing across both ICE and EV's so the simple old world we grew up with seems to be a thing of the past.
The BMS seems to be the the weak link unless an exterior event like an accident or fire source starts Lithium ignition. The simple system in power tools seems solid so what goes wrong with a vehicle BMS? It’s designed to keep the battery from overcharging/undercharging yet a few sitting unattended not charging still catch fire. Mercedes had a bunch of 48 Lithium that died when parked and some when being driven. My Tech has a couple of theories but no one’s talking at M.
The BMS seems to be the the weak link unless an exterior event like an accident or fire source starts Lithium ignition. The simple system in power tools seems solid so what goes wrong with a vehicle BMS? It’s designed to keep the battery from overcharging/undercharging yet a few sitting unattended not charging still catch fire. Mercedes had a bunch of 48 Lithium that died when parked and some when being driven. My Tech has a couple of theories but no one’s talking at M.
Agreed; making the simple complex. Over in Polestar land (we have one on order) they have problems with their 12-volt battery and the "Telematics and Connectivity Antenna Module" ("TCAM") as well. We can't win!
I personally believe the transition to EVs will happen a lot sooner than we realize. It’s happening now before our very eyes. It’s like the stock market; big rallies are hard to spot until they’re half over. It’s just human nature. Maybe I’m wrong. I wouldn’t bet on it, though.
The impact to utilities will be tempered in large part to managed charging and charging during the middle of the night when electricity demand is low. I’m not saying there won’t be impacts, but it won’t be as bad as everyone predicts.
Here's the surprise for people who have received incentives for their EVs, and incentivize charging rates.
This is not new nor should it be a surprise, but one of the reasons the cars themselves and their batteries are incentivized, is to fill the storage Gap. That's the Gap where renewables aren't functioning because the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing or the dams have been breached or the nuclear is refueling or the coal fired plants have been shut down.
The scenario that's been presented since the turn of the century, is that all batteries that are charged by the grid, will be required to remain hooked to the grid, for the grid to draw on in times of heavy usage.
Also Tesla Walls and Generac packs are expected to be on standby, as battery backups to the grid.
When this is presented to the public, it may become another third rail (intended pun), but we have seen several posts above about the inadequacy of kilowatt hours - not to mention the infrastructure.
Look into the Aspen Institute's agenda regarding this issue. It's very popular amongst politicians, and their rationale is used to justify radical legislation. Like 50% EVS by 2030.
There already are many communities / co-ops have community solar or other energy source, that use this strategy and require batteries to remain connected to the grid. They are being used as demonstration projects and are quite well received by the big wigs.
You don't really think this is the end of it do you?
Here's the surprise for people who have received incentives for their EVs, and incentivize charging rates.
This is not new nor should it be a surprise, but one of the reasons the cars themselves and their batteries are incentivized, is to fill the storage Gap. That's the Gap where renewables aren't functioning because the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing or the dams have been breached or the nuclear is refueling or the coal fired plants have been shut down.
The scenario that's been presented since the turn of the century, is that all batteries that are charged by the grid, will be required to remain hooked to the grid, for the grid to draw on in times of heavy usage.
Also Tesla Walls and Generac packs are expected to be on standby, as battery backups to the grid.
When this is presented to the public, it may become another third rail (intended pun), but we have seen several posts above about the inadequacy of kilowatt hours - not to mention the infrastructure.
Look into the Aspen Institute's agenda regarding this issue. It's very popular amongst politicians, and their rationale is used to justify radical legislation. Like 50% EVS by 2030.
You don't really think this is the end of it do you?
I don't follow or parrot conspiracy theories.
Do your research. I gave the easiest source, and you can certainly go further. Follow the money.
Or just be surprised.
Here's the surprise for people who have received incentives ...
You don't really think this is the end of it do you?
Mike, I'm still depressed about your post reminding me of my first Chev. Diesel truck with the Olds bottom end fiasco.
I read something similar on the Battery backup from a European country policy and dismissed it as wild speculation but??? maybe not.
Electricity today as a transportation energy source is <1% of end use consumption. Notice also the 65% in losses (thermal generating losses, electrical transmission losses, etc.) related to electricity generation. No one talks about this.
Petroleum (gasoline and diesel) today is 90% of transportation end use consumption.
For electricity to make up 50% of transportation demand requires 50x electricity supply availability for transportation uses compared to today. This corresponds to 50% EV penetration of all vehicles on the road today, personal/private and commercial vehicles. This would mean doubling electrical retail sales, therefore a doubling of generation output.
Never say never. The question is when and, arguably, if the infrastructure will be built. How well is the U.S. doing on infrastructure upkeep today? What happens when the grid goes down due to severe weather events as happened last night in major midwest metro areas?
08-28-2022, 05:14 PM
