Frenetic

As I was buying my car, a thought crossed my mind: what will the value of my car be in a few years?

The reason why that thought crossed my mind is that car prices are driven in large part by supply and demand. What will the demand be like for these types of cars as we transition over to EVs? Will there more or less in a few years? I thought about this and I’m not sure. If no one wants to buy ICE engines five years from now, will my car be essentially worthless? I understand that these are depreciating assets to begin with, but will this transition depreciate them even more or will it have the opposite effect?

chassis

EV transition will not be a cliff event.

ICE will have a long tail.

ICE value = zero in five years is not likely. Even if the doomsday scenario happens as you outlined, then what? Why should anyone care? Not directed toward you personally, but to the vehicle consuming populace.

Frenetic

No I get it, I’m just exaggerating to make a point, but will there be some demand destruction due to EVs that the actual value will be a lot less than what we anticipate now?

mikapen

Demand destruction for EVs happened last weekend. The Inflation Realization Act was signed.
It won't take effect until after the next election cycle () but without subsidies the industry will have headwinds.

And since CA is finding that it's out of Electricity, expect their Charging subsidies to taper or end. They'll try to recommission the San Onofre Nuke plant but when that fails, do you think they will put the Navajo Generating Station workers back to work? Nope (meaning very little out-of-State power).
So there goes CA's EV demand destruction (biggest market).

I don't see any ICE demand destruction very soon, if at all. Even Tesla says they expect to run out of battery materials mid '24.
So, with auto manufacturers bullied into decreasing ICE production, why would there be anything but Increased demand for ICE cars?

Frenetic

Mikapen, that’s why I asked this question because I don’t know. We get to witness the revolutionary transition first hand. We really are on the precipice and can peer over both sides of the cliff.

It’s a complicated question and will depend on a number of factors.

1. EV vs ICE demand
2. ICE production
3. Gas prices
4. EV vs ICE car prices

Here’s another thought, what happens if ICE production starts to nose dive, outpacing the drop in actual demand, will that have the opposite effect on the price of our cars? I don’t necessarily think so because there’s so much innovation going on in the EV side whereas ICE engineering work has all but stopped. I get the challenges facing EVs, but there are a lot of smart people working on this problem. Solid state batteries that require less exotic materials and can hold a huge charge are around the corner to name just one.

In any case, I paid over $100k for my car. I planned on unloading it before the warranty period ends in four years. I hope I can sell it for a reasonable amount. That’s why this thought crossed my mind.

chassis

Your depreciating ICE asset will not magically jump in value a handful of years from now. Likely not ever.

ICE production will not "nose dive, outpacing the drop in actual demand". What circumstances would allow that to happen, in your view?

What are you getting at? You want to flip your GLE 53 for a fortune?

Ron.s

Personally I see the opposite happening for at least the next decade. There are already numerous people trying to buy the “last ICE V8”. As Chassis said ICE will be around. Until the EV infrastructure builds out there are many people that will find it hard to get an EV charge conveniently. As demand for gas drops the price will also. There is not enough Lithium supply. Not enough EV production capacity that takes years to add. IMO, the current EV battery technology will become obsolete as Solid State batteries and faster charging become available. There could be considerable obsolescence just because of the potential for ongoing, significant improvements in EV technology. Home charging systems might also become obsolete. Grid Electric Capacity? Future Government taxation, incentives and funding are another unknown. The safety issue with a Lithium battery powered vehicle parked in your garage? (I added 2 smoke detectors in my garage just for my puny Mercedes battery.)
Obsolescence…I just saw an article about an 8 year old EV battery failure. The car sold used for $11k and the replacement battery was $14k=sell for salvage, lose $10k+. Poorer people will probably buy used EV vehicles…what will they do when a recent purchase becomes worthless?
There is no standardization of EV batteries among manufacturer’s and even among one brand. Eight years from now will anyone even have a replacement battery since there could be hundreds of different batteries and even the 48 volt might become higher voltage. Backward compatibility might not be a high priority or even possible. Consumers in rural locations might be concerned about availability and options if they have a failure. A parts store in Hooterville might carry a 12 volt battery but….a supply of 48 volt Lithiums?
There will probably be fewer Legacy car brands around in 10 years to even support some vehicles. How many of the original Cell Phone Manufacturer’s survived?
The EV technology mandates are moving fast-maybe faster than consumer acceptance? I see the potential for some “train wrecks” before this is over. I’m in no hurry to buy an EV!

Frenetic

Lol no. I’m just wondering how much negative equity I’ll have on the loan. Will it as expected or will it larger than normal because of the aforementioned.

Ron.s

Here’s a true story that started out as a Father bragging about his son’s fairly new Tesla.
Father: We took a 360 mile trip in my Son’s Tesla. Quiet and smooth vehicle, he loves it. My son set the Navigation and the system automatically added routing to the charging stations required for the trip.
Me: More than one stop for a trip that my Mercedes will make non stop with at least 3/8 of a tank of gas left?
Father: Currently there is no charging location midway in the trip so it took an extra stop. But this was a chance to kick back and relax, we had a snack too. XX minutes and we were at 80%.
Me: That probably added 1/2 hour to your trip?
Father: Umm, a little longer because we had to wait for a spot at one stop. Trip took a little over an hour longer this time.
Me: Seems like a lot of inconvenience and time wasted.
Father: It was a lot of fun this time but he will probably take his wife’s car for longer trips in the future.
Me: Are you thinking about an EV purchase too?
Father: I like my hybrid better!
Edit: This trip was all Interstate Highway.

Frenetic

Hey Ron. I appreciate your thoughts. You could be right, but the only certainty in my opinion is uncertainty (yeah that’s a cliche’). It will be interesting, though, how this all plays out.

One thing about gas prices is that they may actually go up as demand drops. It’s backwards thinking I know but gasoline demand is typically inelastic, meaning changes in prices usually doesn’t have that much of an impact on demand. Now imagine gas sales are declining 5% per year due to increasing EV usage. Since the demand is inelastic, lowering prices won’t bring those people back. What’s the best way to maintain revenue? Raise prices. This analogy is similar to the post office. Those few that actually rely on it aren’t enough to support the operation of it. What happens then? Well, prices have to skyrocket to keep it running (in reality it’s runs a huge deficit).

I’m not saying this is going to happen but it’s an interesting thought experiment if you understand demand elasticity.

Ron.s

Good point. I should have said “could” and I was only thinking about “supply side” economics. I didn’t consider all longer term factors but only that there could be an abundance of crude oil supply. If there are fewer ISG vehicles/more EV’s worldwide then less consumption and the lower crude prices should trickle down to lower gas prices.
In reality it’s more complicated. Economy of scale will be a factor….refinery production and efficiency, the gas station as we know it, distribution logistics, gas taxes, profit margins, less competition and other factors could result in higher priced fuel even with lower priced crude oil in the future. There’s a good chance that there may be fewer cars per capita.
The Government is good at mandates but they really excel at screwing things up since they never consider most of the consequences.

Brocktoon

I wouldn't panic, as you say. We have five couples in our circle of friends and neighbors who have either gone back to ICE cars or are looking to get rid of their electric cars. The big problems seem to be that the climate and terrain here (cold snowy mountains, or roasting cloudless sunny days) really has an impact on range. And when that happens, it's not just happening to you but everyone else too, so you wait. The other problem is lack of charging infrastructure at ski hills, trail heads, golf and other destinations, so people have to schlep into the nearest town and wait around there, too. For example it took my niece almost eight hours in her Leaf to go 250km last winter in -40 F. A guy on the street behind me had two teslas, now he's got a couple of BMWs again. One of my wife's clients bought his wife a Tesla and she hated it, "always planning and waiting" apparently she said, so now she's in a Cayenne again.

As an urban commuter where you can keep your juice up privately in your own garage, I think they are great, but the use case seems to fall apart as soon as you try to replace a primary vehicle for an active family (at least around here). Like any other fad, people are trying it out to see if it is right for them. How many of you guys are still sleeping on a waterbed? Remember when they wanted to look at building codes to make sure new homes were "future proof" from all the waterbed loads? Just because government is involved doesn't mean it makes any sense.

benzbell

I don't see ICE going away anytime soon. The oil and gas industry is one of the largest sectors in the World. These boys (Chevron, Exxon, Shell, BP, etc..,) aren't going to rollover and quietly go away because of battery operated cars. They have a lot of say because of their money and lobbying power. Most of the oil bigwigs are probably invested in EV as well so they can double dip on both ends is usually how it works.

chassis

Agree. And the electric utilities are not on board to build the needed infrastructure in the time scale reflected in EV growth projections.

Headwinds to EVs have picked up in the past few months.

superswiss

Pretty much as others have said. First off when buying a car I think you should always be prepared for it to have zero value at some point. It's a sunk cost until you find somebody willing to give you some money for it. Borrowing money to buy a depreciating asset is generally not a good idea anyway, unless you can offset it with enough gains investing the cash elsewhere, or you make money off of the depreciating asset so it becomes a capital investment.

You can ask the same question about today's EVs. Many of them will likely be worthless in a few years as technology advances. Things change so rapidly that in a few years nobody will be interested in an EV with old battery technology. I'm still convinced that battery electric is a stop gap solution until we find a better portable electric energy source. Today's EVs really still have the same problems as electric cars always had and that's the lack of energy density. EVs with big batteries weigh a ton.

Globally, EVs are still a drop in the bucket. I think things will at least temporarily fizzle out as current and potential owners get a reality check. The loss of tax incentives is just the beginning. EVs kinda follow the trend of many other things. They are cool and interesting as long as it's just early adopters using them, but as soon as the masses adopt it, the problems start. A good example is Google Maps etc.. Early in the days it was few people that used navigation apps on their phones, so they got rerouted to empty roads nobody else knew about and average travel time went down for those in the know. Nowadays with everybody using these apps, previously empty roads are being clogged, residential areas are being overrun by commuter traffic and average travel times have actually gone up. Same is starting to happen with EVs. With few EVs on the roads most charging stations were empty and you could just pull up and charge, assuming the chargers were actually working and not broken. The latter continues to be a major issue. But you can see now in places like Germany especially that these charging parks are filling up, and people have to increasingly wait to charge their cars or repark and try another charger because they are still not as reliable as they need to be. Travel times with EVs will go up as a consequence. Even a smooth trip w/o having to wait takes longer than with an ICE. Time is money as they say, and early adopters were willing to exchange their time for the experience, but that is fading.

Personally I still don't know why I would pay money for an EV to arrive later at my destination than with an ICE. It's simply a worse experience. The sweet spot is for those who can charge at home and don't drive more than the available range in a single day. For anything beyond that, and for people living in apartments and condos w/o charging opportunity etc. it's just simply a worse experience. If I have to organize my life and schedule around the car instead of the car fitting in with my existing lifestyle, what exactly is the point? New products ultimately need to be better and more convenient for the vast majority to get adopted. If they only work for a small minority then there isn't gonna be mass adoption.

On top of that are the availability of resources. As already mentioned above, there isn't enough lithium to go around at the moment, and building new mines is held up in many areas, because lithium mines are very dirty and a major environmental impact for residents nearby. I'm not saying the drilling for oil, refining it etc. is environmentally friendly, but this infrastructure already exists. New drilling sites are heavily contested, but we have a worldwide supply that covers the demand at the moment. This can't be said for lithium, electricity, grid and charging infrastructure. All this needs to be built and just wait for all the NIMBYs to come out of the woodworks. They are already actively fighting many of the infrastructure projects that are needed.

Aggie57

I have a Polestar 2 arriving in a couple of weeks, for use in and around our local area. Commute, trip into LA and back, shopping, that sort of thing. But I’m keeping our GLE because I don’t want to be needing to charge mid-journey on trips to the desert, Vegas etc.

monwen

Anybody think about the lost gasoline tax revenue that goes to the State? I think in Maryland it’s about .5/gallon….adds up for sure. How will the States recoup?

benzbell

I've heard talk and ideas about the government tracking and charging you per mile driven in EVs. Laugh now but I can see that coming down the road (no pun intended).

Jzegel

"Nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes."

chassis

Governments will not lose a dime in the EV transition, if the transition occurs. States will raise license/tag/registration fees, Feds will tax electricity, among other things.

Carmakers are the main entities pushing the EV agenda. EVs require less high cost (mostly union) labor to assemble. By dividing the corporate structure into ICE and EV, as some car companies are doing, they can partially firewall off unions. What union labor remains in the new EV division will be paid at a different tier.

It's a money grab for car companies. Nothing more. High battery cost will get solved over time.

The reduction in assembly labor is the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for carmakers.

Keep an eye and ear on what the electric utility industry says and does. They are holding the trump card. If they don't want to build the infrastructure, (public) money will talk as it always does to pay for the increased generation and distribution.

superswiss

Yep, money always talks. Look at what Tesla is doing now. They are going to equip their superchargers with CCS cables in the USA finally, and open them up to other EVs. There's already an ongoing pilot in several European countries. Why the sudden change of mind from Musk? He previously wanted other car makes to pay in order to give them access. Well, Musk wants a chunk of the money from the new infrastructure bill and the money for charging stations only goes to those who build them for all EVs.

brad_saggy

Since my GLE53 continues to be delayed (1+yr wait now), I had ordered a Volvo XC90 T8 Recharge. It was attractive mainly because of the 7500 IRS credits. Since I'll only get it Nov/Dec, I don't think it's worth it anymore because the credits are gone due to IRA enactment! So, I'm most likely getting an ICE now (hopefully the GLE53)

Frenetic

That’s actually not far fetched if you think about it. Most states and even local municipalities use gas taxes to pay for interstate or local road improvements and maintenance. They’re going to have to find alternative sources if that dries up. I just think tracking miles will cross into too many privacy laws. I’m sure they’ll find another ways like through DMV registration or, ironically, an EV tax lol.

Like I mentioned, gas will be like the post office. Until this all gets sorted out, the easiest way to maintain revenue for both the oil companies and governments who tax it is to raise prices if demand drops. Demand elasticity. This will probably impact the poorest of us who can’t afford EVs more than anyone else.

I’m not saying this transition will happen overnight, but it’s happening whether we like it or not.

Drone_S213

Worked in Oil & Gas Service sector off and on since 2012-2019. Briefly returned to Engineering 2013-2015 then retired at 55. Returned to the Oilfields after daughter turned down nearly free Tuition at GA Tech (with her scholarships) since got into MIT early admissions 2017. Got voted off retirement island with looming $72K Tuition...lol

The new wells drilled in the Permian Basin are up to 25,000 feet deep and output about 800-1000 barrels of crude daily not counting the water or natural gas by products. There are not enough Nuke Plants to supply the Grid. Natural Gas is abundant and alot of locations just burn off the excess Gas with Flares until new Gas Plants are constructed and the industry tries to cut down Methane pollution depending on who is in the White House. Coal, Hydro, Wind, and Solar make up the remaining sources for the Grid although the Hoover Dam might go offline soon if Western States don't conserve water usage drastically with drought and lack of Mountain Snowpack.

Oil companies need to still supply Powerplants with Natural Gas for the rest of my children's lifetime so they just can't Plug these Megawells. They have sold or plugged Pre WW2 Wells since they barely produce 25-50 barrels of crude. It's not cost effective to store the water (which could be up to 90% of what is pumped up to ground level) and provide service to keep the well at production metrics. Mega deepwell production is more like 90% Crude and 10% water. These new wells have so much pressure the old fashion "Pump Jack" can't handle the output...most flow freely to massive Batteries of Tanks then downstream to massive new networks of pipelines for Crude, Gas, and now the excess water. Oilfield Production and Delivery including the byproducts are becoming more automated as old wells are retired and these new wells, massive tank batteries, pipelines, and gas plants are coming online. Oil and Gas is not going away. ICE cars will fade away to meet CAFE fuel economy standards so if you want a V8 or TTV6 have to buy a Truck or SUV that the manufacturers make mega profits on. My family currently drive boring SUVs and will transition to EVs eventually. Once my ICE fun muscle cars fade away might transition to an engaging EV motorcycle or just become a passenger after 2035 and chew gummies for fun. Already let my CDL expire...

Folks in the market for expensive SUVs should consider leasing in the future instead of traditional ownership to limit dead weight Lo$$.

mikapen

I've been working with the Colorado DOT on the "Who pays for roads and how" question since the early '00's. It includes bicyclists who now enjoy new Full-Lane bike lanes* and EV taxation as well. It's not a new thing, and it's troubling. Those Fed Highway monies also fund Public Safety, such as the State Patrol.
(*Closing auto lanes for bikes - because of Fed Incentives that Oh By The Way "funded infrastructure" if you removed sufficient auto lanes. See the pattern?)

Most of the Highway Funds are provided by the Feds, who receive their monies from fuel taxes, forwarded to States with the biggest political clout (i.e. disproportionately). It's dwindling A LOT and infrastructure is deteriorating.

Of course, with dwindling return of Fed Tax Funds due to EV's, things that are disguised as "Infrastructure Bills" are favorably received by the Public, even though they are just more Pork-barrel Politics. Which allows the Feds to Kick the Highway Funding can further down the road.
I mentioned that the IRA doesn't take effect until after the next Pres election, because of its harmful effects, despite putting Lipstick on That Pig.

Many States (most?) have prohibitions on new or increased taxes without the Vote of the Public. And since the IRA will Save Us All, what's the chance of a new EV or Mileage tax passed by the Public? Or a Legislator proposing such a thing, as long as there are elections?