Ron.s

[QUOTE=mikapen;8620904]Nice research….
I hope it proves feasible if only to offer an option and divert the hasty mandated move to all EV’s. At the projected 550million liters in 2026 it will still only be .1%-.001 of current US gasoline consumption. It might be interesting to see how it blends with gasoline.

TexAg91

[QUOTE=Ron.s;8620911]my understanding is they’re 100% compatible-they are chemically identical— no engine mods required.

Swordfish99

So where are all these dead lithium batteries going to end up? In our environmentally friendly landfills? Do you put it in the Blue Bin or Black Bin? When these batteries start to die, and they will, people will see it will be cheaper to buy a new car and I bet a lot of them will buy ICE cars. Lithium will never be as readily available as oil and gas have over the years. Until they can control Hydrogen from exploding and can run cars off of it, I doubt you will get much penetration with electric. Does anyone know what the percentage of ICE vs electric is today?

Ron.s

Just under 1% of all the cars in the US are fully electric vehicles (EVs). This number doesn't account for partial electric and hybrid vehicles. In 2020, electric and hybrid vehicles saw a huge jump in sales, approximately 76% for hybrids and 83% for fully electric cars.

Frenetic

Tesla outsold all of the other premium brands in 2022 so far, including Mercedes. Every manufacturer is slowly ramping up EV production, including Ford, Chevy and everyone else for that matter. The momentum is too much to change; the writing is on the wall. The biggest death knell, though, is engineering development. It’s all but stopped for ICE engines. That’s why I really don’t know how this is going to affect the value of our cars in the future. Who knows, maybe they’ll be worth more since production will decline, but so will demand. Five years from now we can all look back and either laugh or cry at this thread lol.

https://www.torquenews.com/15475/tes...-mercedes-benz

benzbell

Yep. Gen Z and Millennials clamoring to get that Tesla vegan leather.

chassis

This is a growth industry. Pure recycling in the traditional sense for end of life batteries will be dealt with in the same way lead-acid and other yucky things are handled today. Valuable metals and plastic will be recovered, and whatever isn't useful or recoverable will be neutralized and landfilled.

Second life batteries are also a growth industry, unique to lithium batteries, different than the lead-acid ecosystem. When a lead-acid battery is finished, it's finished. It gets recycled for lead and plastic recovery. When a lithium battery is no longer usable for transportation, it has a long life remaining. These batteries, if functional, are used in multi-battery systems as standby power combined with generators (combustion or renewable source).

So the path for a lithium battery is: transportation use --> second life --> recycle. If a battery fails or is damaged and not suitable for second life, it is recycled.

Ron.s

It will be interesting to see how the “second life” will play out if at all. If a battery nears the EOL and a new one costs more that the car is worth some may keep driving the car until the battery fails. Might still work for short urban use vs sell for salvage.
The other challenge will be packaging them. The battery cells are somewhat uniform but the packaging and battery Controllers are evolving and different by Manufacturer and will also change as they evolve by Manufacturer. There doesn’t seem to be any concern about standardization. At this time….in a Mercedes the battery doesn’t function independently. Someone can probably figure it out but over time there could be a lot of different iterations of the battery controller cards.
The fire risk of a Lithium battery could be greater if the controller fails without an outside monitor. Even in a car with the complete package, there still seems to be a fire risk. People won’t store gasoline or other combustibles in their garage but the incendiary capability of a Lithium battery is much more severe. Ford and Mercedes have already announced recalls with instructions to park the vehicle outside of the garage.

Vyper340vb

Interesting points and all have some validity.

Sooo there is still belief that the government can dictate what we buy (or don’t)? Over time and proven again and again it has been proved that the people decide not companies, not government. Look at any of our recent history including Prohibition. While they can impact things “short term” they cannot force people to do things they don’t want to do long term if they don’t destroy the Constitution. Despite outright attempt to undermine the very fabric of our founding principles over periods in our history, we have been able to prove that people truly can influence the issues that are important. While this has become more polluted with special interests and the like polluting the corruptible, we the people can currently and still make the decisions and change the course.

FYI - I’m only comparing this to the ICE vs the forced electric discussion and not attempting to be political.

superswiss

Recycling the car batteries is definitely a multifaceted issue. Besides the second use there is also the fact that with these large batteries the cells don't wear uniformly. So the battery maybe overall at or below 80% capacity, but that doesn't mean every single cell is at or below 80%. Some may be, but others will still be way higher, so these batteries can also be refurbished by replacing the spent cells. Either replacing individual modules that contain the spent cells, or down to the individual cells. There will likely be a market to refurbish the batteries instead of replacing them with an entirely new battery.

The question ultimately is at what rate will individual cells eventually need to be recycled. The dirty secret about recycling is that we happily put our recyclables into the blue bin, but only a fraction actually gets recycled. Of today's lithium batteries in our devices, only about 10% actually gets recycled. We can't even recycle what we already have.

mikapen

That's a critical question.
Tesla has a battery recycling plant in operation now. I think it was piloted three or four years ago and is being scaled up.
​​​​​​Musk says that even though it's "small" at this time, it's well over capacity, because not enough batteries have aged out yet. He says the the factory design will allow future ones to be small or large, depending......
He's a big thinker and a big talker, and likes the spotlight. That's fine, but my concern is the board of directors seems to be submissive and inactive.

But least there seems to be a market developing for recycling. I wouldn't be surprised of a NIMBY headwind, though.

Frenetic

Battery longevity is certainly the critical element when it comes to long term ownership. I know these things are relatively new but there are stories out there about Teslas losing only 10% capacity at 100k miles.

https://www.motorbiscuit.com/tesla-m...-100000-miles/

How long will these things truly last? Would it be riskier to own a traditional MB out of warranty from 50k to say 125k versus an EV over that same mileage?

chassis

Good points and they are being solved as we speak.

Standardization is relatively high at the cell level. Most battery manufacturers are using a cylindrical cell with comparable voltage. Software and electronic engineers are creating solutions to interface second life batteries to the grid for charging, and to loads (vehicles, buildings, etc.) for discharging.

Regarding fire hazard, regulations are being put in place, for example in Germany, similar to building codes. Distance from another building and similar parameters are being spelled out for second life battery arrays.

When one considers the stored/potential and kinetic energy in a petrochemical plant in the Gulf area, the hazards posed by second life lithium batteries seem like child's play by comparison.

Ron.s

We may not know that answer for years. It could be that many will last through high mileage but what percentage? As @Superswiss mentioned individual cells might be replaceable although that hasn’t been the case to date, Mercedes has been replacing the battery unit not the cells. Dealerships in the future might have the ability to replace cells and Controllers. The batteries for the most part are a combination of oversized AA looking cells. As these are produced in larger volumes will the battery cell be the weak spot or the battery controller cards? Most of us won’t keep a car long enough to find out about longevity. Maybe there will be an insurance policy covering extended life coverage for EV batteries out of warranty.
The Nissan Leaf isn’t getting anywhere near that mileage or life past 8 years. I’ve seen two reports where the cost of a replacement battery exceeded the value of the car. Mercedes GLE batteries had a high failure rate from Q4 2021 through Q1 2022. Mercedes had a recall on the lithium battery in the GLE Diesel in Europe. Ford had a big recall. We keep seeing Teslas on fire and special Fire Department equipment to help control Lithium battery fires. Very probably an EV failure started the fire that sank the Felicity Ace with 4,000 new cars.
If the batteries last 8 years are they less/more prone to failure. It seems that the actual battery cells are of decent quality but maybe not so much with the electronics managing them. If Lithium overheats/overcharges it can get ugly. It’s inconvenient when the failure requires a tow truck and new battery like mine did in May 22…drug out of my garage on skids. But what if the car is older and out of warranty/ What if it starts on fire in my garage? Things to ponder.

Frenetic

I have no idea how EVs will ultimately play out when it comes to overall reliability. I’m just going by whatever anecdotal posts are found online.

However, my gut tells me that they will be more reliable simply because they don’t have nearly as many moving or mechanical parts that can and will break. I don’t know anything about battery technology but I’m sure there differences between the batteries found in a cheap leaf versus though found in more expensive EVs. However, reduced life after eight years isn’t that bad if you think about it, I hope they got their money’s worth after that time span. Conversely, I wouldn’t be very comfortable trying to drive any German brand to eight years.

chassis

Battery pack = the whole enchilada that delivers power to the vehicle. It’s a large flat box that mounts under the vehicle floor. It includes cooling and structural elements. Replacement of a battery pack seems to be today’s practice.

Module = collection of cells, a number of modules are contained in each pack. Module health is “knowable” by battery management electronics. Replacement of modules could be a practical method in the field.

Cell = cylindrical “AA battery on steroids”. Thousands of cells per pack. Dozens of cells per module. Individual cell health is not monitored by most battery management systems today. This could change. Replacing individual cells seems unlikely to me. It would be analogous to changing capacitors on a circuit board or one piston ring in an engine.

mikapen

There are also stories that Tesla batteries will last 300,000 to 500,000 miles. https://getoptiwatt.com/blog/how-lon...ry-really-last
From that article, "In 2019, Elon Musk projected that Tesla would soon develop batteries that could power electric vehicles for 1 million miles over the course of its lifespan." With technology stolen from Mercedes and BMW in 2017 when Tesla bought their battery developer/partner, Grohmann, and refused to honor their former contracts (forcing out that firm's founder who insisted on honoring the partnerships. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKBN17T2IY

The claims for future tech are truly astounding, defying physics and other laws of nature.
From all these (obviously true) wonderful tales about how M-B technology will Save the Planet (now that the Highly Revered Tesla owns it), why would you ever own a lowly Mercedes? Dump it NOW while you still can!
Join the Cult! All Aboard!!!!

Ron.s

I almost decided to leave this subject alone. Actually I will probably own an EV or at least a Performance Hybrid for my next car. I’m thinking about the E Performance in 2-3 years if one comes out as a GLE. SS batteries will make it certain. Here’s one concise expert summary about the future of a total EV transition. I read an article by a Scientist a few months ago that went in to much more detail about the feasibility while this one focuses more on cost and environmental issues. Short answer is that without adding a lot of Nuclear the present goals for 100% EV are not possible…called Unobtainium by some.
https://fb.watch/f511Y86QmU/

mikapen

I agree completely, @Ron.s .
But until the worldwide problem of storage/reprocessing of spent fuel rods is solved, nuclear power will be skeptically opposed by many first world countries.

BTW the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 requires this depository to be operational NLT 1992.
​​​​​​

Ron.s

We spent over $80 billion on Yucca Mountain as a storage site and Harry Reid killed it after letting the money flow to Nevada for years. The irony is that we will need to keep using more Fossil fuel for electricity or go with more Nuclear power so how do EV’s save the Environment? The Greenies have a conundrum…

Ron.s

New recalls for fire hazard were just announced on Hyundai Palisades and Kia Telluride SUV’s…”Park them Outside your home”. Apparently trailer wiring is the issue.
Just from memory this adds to at least 3 prior-Mercedes, Ford and Chevrolet recalls previously announced.

Frenetic

This is what I’m talking about when it comes to the ultimate death knell for internal combustion engines. Ford is apparently laying off people who engineer and develop these engines.

https://jalopnik.com/ford-says-it-mu...tay-1849445152

This, more than anything else, signals it’s over. I’m still going to try and hang onto a second ICE car for as long as possible, but there’s no turning back.

Ron.s

As a practical matter there isn’t much that can be done to improve the ICE engine for mass production, don’t need a lot of engineers anyway.. Mercedes made a similar announcement last year. Adding the F1 electric/exhaust gas turbo to a production vehicle was probably the last ICE enhancement for Merc. There is a lot of room to do more with Hybrids to improve emissions while keeping ICE around a long time.
Some investors like Berkshire Hathaway are betting big time on Fossil fuels….they added substantially to Chevron and are now approved to buy 50% of Occidental Petroleum. The market value of Oxy is 66 Billion so conservative Berkshire has been making a huge bet on Fossil.

slk55er

You may have seen that Colorado is reducing water delivery to AZ and NV, possibly to CA. There's been a lot of discussion about water in our local paper here in Summit County (ski country west of Denver.) With somewhat of a "tongue in cheek" jab to the Greenies, I submitted the following letter to the Editor of Summit Daily News. We'll see if it gets published.
=================================================

mikapen

I wonder what the responses will be!
Colorado was sued by Kansas for cloud seeding in the 90's, because we were violating our Compact agreement with them. Colorado stopped seeding then.
According to Nolan Doeskin, Colorado's former State Climatologist, CO2 is an "Insignificant Greenhouse Gas" (his words), and H20 is the largest GG by far - MUCH more than Methane of the other popular Culprits.
The IPCC (the UN's "International Panel on Climate Change) doesn't even mention water vapor except briefly - a serious omission, collectively costing Billions as we falsely believe that Humans can actually control Climate Change. I don't like CO2, but it's because of acidification of the oceans and fallout on my car, not it's GG non-properties.

California has historically taken 200 - 600% of it's allocation FOR 50 YEARS, falsely "supporting" its growth, stealing from the Upper Basin States and Mexico as well. The Feds shouldn't be part of these Lake Mead negotiations - it's a State Compact, not Fed. The Feds SHOULD get involved in providing funds to help alleviate CA's dilemma (and AZ, NV - also water thieves). We've already drained all our reservoirs and sent them to CA - our Turnip has been dry for 25 years now.

"Whisky is for Drinkin , Water is for Fightin."
Keep your hands off my ICE!