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2015 S550 Palladium/Deep Sea Blue, 2016 Tesla Model S 70D, 2015 Volvo XC70
Norway might be a small country but thanks to subsidies 50% of car sales are EVs and another 25% hybrids. I think it interesting that Tesla, once dominant there, is now sucking wind. Audi e-tron doing quite well, and judging from the April vs Jan-Apr number, MB EQC is moving up the charts, presumably as production ramps.
I found the Porsche guy's comments on hydrogen interesting. Hydrogen offers the ultimate in distributed production since you can break hydrogen atoms from water anywhere you can set up a solar panel or windmill (e.g. at your corner gas station). Thus, the transportation component can be minimized.
The hydrogen fuel itself quickly fills a vehicle tank and weighs vastly less than batteries.
I see battery-electric as a dead-end because batteries are an expensive, heavy storage media made from noxious chemicals with an uncertain lifespan. Far more appealing to just split water into hydrogen which can be easily stored and filled, then turned back into water as electricity is required.
I found the Porsche guy's comments on hydrogen interesting. Hydrogen offers the ultimate in distributed production since you can break hydrogen atoms from water anywhere you can set up a solar panel or windmill (e.g. at your corner gas station). Thus, the transportation component can be minimized.
The hydrogen fuel itself quickly fills a vehicle tank and weighs vastly less than batteries.
I see battery-electric as a dead-end because batteries are an expensive, heavy storage media made from noxious chemicals with an uncertain lifespan. Far more appealing to just split water into hydrogen which can be easily stored and filled, then turned back into water as electricity is required.
They have been working on hydrogen for decades. This is going nowhere except maybe some commercial applications. Dead-end IMO.
Electric is the way to go. First off, the actual powertrains are simply, cheap to build and superior to ICE or any combustion tech. Can't beat 100% torque throughout the rpm range. The battery tech is also on a quick development path. Could be more environmentally-friendly organic batteries(MB's path) or the much discussed solid state battery.
It solid state becomes viable from a cost/energy density perspective, it's game over for ICE. Recharging would be even faster than filling up your car at the gas station today...
Samsung already has a prototype with a 500 mile range that can be charged more than 1000 times...
2015 S550 Palladium/Deep Sea Blue, 2016 Tesla Model S 70D, 2015 Volvo XC70
Originally Posted by Tom in Austin
I found the Porsche guy's comments on hydrogen interesting. Hydrogen offers the ultimate in distributed production since you can break hydrogen atoms from water anywhere you can set up a solar panel or windmill (e.g. at your corner gas station). Thus, the transportation component can be minimized.
The hydrogen fuel itself quickly fills a vehicle tank and weighs vastly less than batteries.
I see battery-electric as a dead-end because batteries are an expensive, heavy storage media made from noxious chemicals with an uncertain lifespan. Far more appealing to just split water into hydrogen which can be easily stored and filled, then turned back into water as electricity is required.
Hydrogen is inefficient, and that is a big reason why most major auto companies have been emphasizing EV over hydrogen, if they had any hydrogen R&D in the first place. "A hydrogen car consumes two to three times more electricity for the same distance than a battery car" (source)
Batteries that are degraded can find a second life in the electric grid, to store solar or wind-generated electricity...see this article.
2015 S550 Palladium/Deep Sea Blue, 2016 Tesla Model S 70D, 2015 Volvo XC70
Interestingly, the MB EQC is selling relatively poorly in Germany...just 276 units in the Jan-Apr period, compared to 526 in Norway. One would think that if supply is the only issue rather than demand, Norway wouldn't be outselling Germany. From the same source as the 276 number:
As noted by German media outlet Handelsblatt, Daimler executives have described the EQC as a “pipe cracker” and its sales figures a “total disaster.”...
Auto publication Mercedes-Fans.de was able to speak with some Mercedes-Benz dealers, and the sentiment about the EQC were equally negative. Dealers reportedly spoke about the vehicle’s sales as something that can be considered a “catastrophe,” while noting that there is simply “zero demand” for the all-electric SUV....
What is interesting is that electric vehicles are actually picking up in Germany and Europe. The Audi e-tron, for example, was able to sell 4,500 units between May 2019 and April 2020. The Tesla Model 3 sold even more.
This is a very interesting and informative topic, I enjoy reading everyone's news and comments.
I am curious what industry has ever invested so much capital developing products without a clear consumer demand ... billions poured into electric and self-driving vehicles. So much of this is discussed in the business press as being necessary to "get there first" or "not be left behind the competition". But that is not consistent with an industry dominated by a handful of giant global incumbents. These firms have such huge market power that you'd expect them to follow the traditional model of innovation ... let newcomers develop and promote new tech and then when market demand is proven, buy or build and add to their product. The crazy part is watching the industry "bet the farm" on government regulations and subsidies, which are fundamentally disconnected from the marketplace and can be changed at any time.
My mind still reels at a story in Consumer Reports saying the state of Oregon had passed a law "requiring manufacturers to sell more electric cars". How could a governmental body (in the US anyway) require companies to sell a particular product?
Last edited by Tom in Austin; 05-29-2020 at 12:36 PM.
This is a very interesting and informative topic, I enjoy reading everyone's news and comments.
I am curious what industry has ever invested so much capital developing products without consumer demand ... thinking of all the billions poured into electric and self-driving vehicles. So much of this is discussed in the business press as being necessary to "get there first" or "not be left behind the competition". But that is not consistent with an industry dominated by a handful of giant global companies. These firms have such huge market power that you'd expect them instead to follow the traditional model of innovation ... let newcomers develop and promote new tech and then when market demand is proven, buy or build and add to their product. The crazy part is watching the industry "bet the farm" on government regulations and subsidies, which are fundamentally disconnected from the marketplace and can be changed at any time.
My mind still reels at a story in Consumer Reports saying the state of Oregon had passed a law "requiring manufacturers to sell more electric cars". How could any governmental body (in the US anyway) require companies to sell a particular product?
The reason the German auto industry is so late to the game is the lack of customer demand and the concern what to do on the employment side of things. It takes only a fraction of current auto workers to build an equal amount of EV's. So what to do with 60+% of skilled, well paid workers that wouldn't be needed then. On the other side, there are European Union penalties for car manufacturers that can't meet their emissions guidelines. Merceds is poised to incur a 1 Billion Euro fine for a single year alone. So big money and that pushed R&D investment on hybrid, plugin hybrid, EV and smaller engines.
Apart from more EV models still having to come to market, Europe also needs a much larger public charging infrastructure than the US. Over time, I assume countries in Europe will force the issue to increase customer demand, namely more incentives (discounts, lower taxes, free parking, charging, city center access) and penalties (driving bans for older cars not meeting emissions standards will likely become standard fare in many cities, in Germany at least).
The best measure of EV sales will be the new ID models from VW. Lost cost, high volume production and pretty decent looking (better than their ICE models)
The reason the German auto industry is so late to the game is the lack of customer demand and the concern what to do on the employment side of things. It takes only a fraction of current auto workers to build an equal amount of EV's.
If the labor content of an EV relative to an ICE is significantly reduced why isn't the price? Or is it that the value add within Germany's borders is significantly reduced?
If the labor content of an EV relative to an ICE is significantly reduced why isn't the price? Or is it that the value add within Germany's borders is significantly reduced?
The battery costs drive the price at this point. So the question of how that is sourced/manufactured/innovated is key to the value-add in the future.
An ICE engine/drivetrain has about 12 times the amount of parts of an EV, so these cars are stupid simple to manufacture.
This has my attention. I really want an EV but haven't really seen any compelling options. Model S is too old now. Taycan is too small for its price point and rear seats are worse than a C-Class. And most of the others have poor range or performance.
The big issue with Sales numbers is product availability. Not sure about the EQC poor performance but the ID3 should quickly become the market leader once they figure out the software. Cheap and decent car.
For Germany, the COVID stimulus package only benefits EV’s, not lCE’s. Good move on Germany’s part IMO
BTW, speaking of sales numbers, WSJ reported the other day that most BEVs in China are purchased for fleets, businesses, government agencies, etc. So retail demand is nowhere near the reported sales totals. Wouldn't surprise me if same is true of Europe as well. German companies are well-known for giving managers subsidized cars to drive and one can easily imagine this 'channel' being used to drive BEV sales.
01-21-2020, 11:14 AM
