Way Off TOPIC... THE STOCK MARKET ADVICE!!!!
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2004 E55 AMG and 2003 C320 4Matic Miss my 993 Turbo above!!
Way Off TOPIC... STOCK MARKET ADVICE!!!!
6/20/2008:
Any of you who have any claim to fortune in the stock market or make a living by trading in the market, I would love to hear your thoughts on where we are headed.
With Oil at 130+, the credit crisis, housing bubble, are we headed even further than 12,000 DOW, 1300 SP 500??
Any input would be appreciated. I have my finger on the trigger to get back in the market. I feel we are at a capitulation point today.
Any of you who have any claim to fortune in the stock market or make a living by trading in the market, I would love to hear your thoughts on where we are headed.
With Oil at 130+, the credit crisis, housing bubble, are we headed even further than 12,000 DOW, 1300 SP 500??
Any input would be appreciated. I have my finger on the trigger to get back in the market. I feel we are at a capitulation point today.
Last edited by higginsbeach; Jun 20, 2008 at 11:14 AM.
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Just read this from Royal Bank of Scotland. Scary stuff they sent to their customers just THIS week.
Link to full story here
RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.
Kit Jukes, RBS's head of debt markets, said Europe would not be immune. "Economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire. The ECB is hell-bent on raising rates.
"The political fall-out could be substantial as finance ministers from the weaker economies rail at the ECB. Wider spreads between the German Bunds and peripheral markets seem assured," he said.
Ultimately, the bank expects the oil price spike to subside as the more powerful force of debt deflation takes hold next year.
Link to full story here
RBS issues global stock and credit crash alertThe Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
"The Fed is in panic mode. The massive credibility chasms down which the Fed and maybe even the ECB will plummet when they fail to hike rates in the face of higher inflation will combine to give us a big sell-off in risky assets," he said.
Kit Jukes, RBS's head of debt markets, said Europe would not be immune. "Economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire. The ECB is hell-bent on raising rates.
"The political fall-out could be substantial as finance ministers from the weaker economies rail at the ECB. Wider spreads between the German Bunds and peripheral markets seem assured," he said.
Ultimately, the bank expects the oil price spike to subside as the more powerful force of debt deflation takes hold next year.
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From: Upstate NY
W211 E55
Brotha,
My wife was a VP at a top firm for several years (she's home now with the kids) and she still stays current with the market trends, etc. The common thought in the field "right now" is that we are headed further down, WAY down. Not sure how this changes your thoughts, but just thought I would share.
My wife was a VP at a top firm for several years (she's home now with the kids) and she still stays current with the market trends, etc. The common thought in the field "right now" is that we are headed further down, WAY down. Not sure how this changes your thoughts, but just thought I would share.
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From: Seattle
'19 E63S, ‘16 CLS63 RIP, '09 E63 Gone, '06 M5 Gone, '97 Supra TT Gone
Stay in cash and Inflation Protected Bonds. Hell even bonds aren't safe. There was a full 1/1 correlation in the drop last week. Nobody was safe.
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Everything you need to know is here.
http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040sd.pdf
Yes 2008 will trigger a sizable tax event for many.
Dow 9K 1/15/09
http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040sd.pdf
Yes 2008 will trigger a sizable tax event for many.
Dow 9K 1/15/09
Last edited by Yacht Master; Jun 20, 2008 at 12:07 PM.
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From: Bay Area
2004 E55 AMG, 2002 Porsche 996 TT, 2004 BMW x5 4.8is, 2004 F360
I'd hold on to that cash. We haven't seen the bottom of the housing crisis nor the end of the credit crunch yet. Later this year and into the next, some of the $500 billion in pay option arms are going to reset. Much of these borrowers are only making the minimum payments, and the rest of the money is added to the balance of the mortgage. As defaults rise, this will cause more financial institutions to write-down more of their investments. I would not hold bank stocks. What I am surprised is that I haven't seen more hedge funds implode. Surely there are other HF investing in sub-prime CDO's.
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From: S. Cal
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Not in Stocks but I am in real estate and here is my $.02. it is going to get much worst before it get's better. Housing plays such a big role in the larger scheme of things and it has not hit bottom yet. The credit cruch is now being, and has been since march of this year, absorbed into the marketplace (meaning we are now feeling the effects). In addition to that, $5 a gallon (in my neck of the woods) is a month old event and in 5 months or so you will see the side effects of that fiasco.
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From: Seattle
'19 E63S, ‘16 CLS63 RIP, '09 E63 Gone, '06 M5 Gone, '97 Supra TT Gone
Consumer discretionary spending is about to fall through the floor, increased gas prices and food costs, Louis Vitton isn't so damn appetizing now. The American auto industry is getting a solid kick to the nuts with trucks being worth exactly dirt, and our oil baron slobs that run the presidency will never take the necessary steps to punish oil speculators.
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From: Seattle
'19 E63S, ‘16 CLS63 RIP, '09 E63 Gone, '06 M5 Gone, '97 Supra TT Gone
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From: Indianapolis, IN
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Seems as though the negative supply shock (due to dramatic oil price increases) is most likely causing (or has caused) the US Economy to experience stagflation (or rising unemployment and inflation occuring at the same time) 
I'm no stock market guru, but I don't think we've hit bottom just yet.
I'm no stock market guru, but I don't think we've hit bottom just yet.
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From: S. Cal
Family Sedan w/5.5 K
Oil speculators, same as housing and .com's will get theirs when the bubble burst (yes i feel we are in a oil bubble). It is not a presidency issue to regulate a free market, there are times of ineffeciency from speculators, like right now. However, a free market is the most effecient beast over time and any "steps" to dicate the market will make things worst. Having said all this, i do not agree or disagree (if that's possible) with the current presidency, I don't want to turn this into a political debate.
Consumer discretionary spending is about to fall through the floor, increased gas prices and food costs, Louis Vitton isn't so damn appetizing now. The American auto industry is getting a solid kick to the nuts with trucks being worth exactly dirt, and our oil baron slobs that run the presidency will never take the necessary steps to punish oil speculators.
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2004 E55 AMG and 2003 C320 4Matic Miss my 993 Turbo above!!
The Feds hands are tied right now since they cannot lower interest rates anylonger to spur economic growth due to INFLATION. Soros and others out there are singing the chorus that the derivitives that are leveraging 35 to 1 on the dollar is about to or has begun to implode due to the housing bubble. Everytime housing values go down, the banks have to revalue and mark to market and bring down their loan values- Its a death spiral.
The consumer has been holding up the market for a long time. We represent 2/3rds of the market and when conusmer discretionary spending is dryed up, WATCH OUT. The phuckin rebate checks that I'm sure everyone of you received (RIGHT LOL)
was a joke. That is a 165 billion dollar loan we will have our kids pay off during their lifetimes. Now that the rebate checks are spent or sitting in the bank, 5.00 gas and food inflation is killing consumer spending.
I think what people fail to realize is that local munis and government are in a whole lot of hurt right now. TAX COLLECTIONS ARE WAY DOWN. So local government budgets are taking a HUGE HIT and that will be the nail in the coffin to send the economy down.
The fed needs to start raising interest rates to curb inflation and get the dollar strong again. That should bring down oil too and be good for the economy. I do know one thing, my funds are not earning **** in money markets right now. Good ole 5-7% days would be a welcome site.
Glad to see a lot of thoughtful comments. I too will wait to see if 1250 sp 500 holds for a triple bottom. Normally, there are not triple bottoms.
The consumer has been holding up the market for a long time. We represent 2/3rds of the market and when conusmer discretionary spending is dryed up, WATCH OUT. The phuckin rebate checks that I'm sure everyone of you received (RIGHT LOL)
was a joke. That is a 165 billion dollar loan we will have our kids pay off during their lifetimes. Now that the rebate checks are spent or sitting in the bank, 5.00 gas and food inflation is killing consumer spending.I think what people fail to realize is that local munis and government are in a whole lot of hurt right now. TAX COLLECTIONS ARE WAY DOWN. So local government budgets are taking a HUGE HIT and that will be the nail in the coffin to send the economy down.
The fed needs to start raising interest rates to curb inflation and get the dollar strong again. That should bring down oil too and be good for the economy. I do know one thing, my funds are not earning **** in money markets right now. Good ole 5-7% days would be a welcome site.
Glad to see a lot of thoughtful comments. I too will wait to see if 1250 sp 500 holds for a triple bottom. Normally, there are not triple bottoms.
Last edited by higginsbeach; Jun 20, 2008 at 04:52 PM.
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Unfortunately we're not at the bottom of the housing disaster yet. A friend of mine who's fairly high up in the real estate business told me that things are definitely not headed in the right direction, and we're likely to see even worse times in the coming months before things start to stablize.
However, in terms of global bonds, I've been experiencing very healthy growth for a while now (at least in throughout the last year or so). Real estate in India, China, and some parts of the Middle East are booming like there's no tomorrow 
However, in terms of global bonds, I've been experiencing very healthy growth for a while now (at least in throughout the last year or so)
. Real estate in India, China, and some parts of the Middle East are booming like there's no tomorrow
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The consumer has been holding up the market for a long time. We represent 2/3rds of the market and when conusmer discretionary spending is dryed up, WATCH OUT. The phuckin rebate checks that I'm sure everyone of you received was a joke. That is a 165 billion dollar loan we will have our kids pay off during their lifetimes. Now that the rebate checks are spent or sitting in the bank, 5.00 gas and food inflation is killing consumer spending.
was a joke. That is a 165 billion dollar loan we will have our kids pay off during their lifetimes. Now that the rebate checks are spent or sitting in the bank, 5.00 gas and food inflation is killing consumer spending.Even if they do spend it, the only economies that would be affected will be China and those that supply our oil...
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From: Seattle
'19 E63S, ‘16 CLS63 RIP, '09 E63 Gone, '06 M5 Gone, '97 Supra TT Gone
Oil speculators, same as housing and .com's will get theirs when the bubble burst (yes i feel we are in a oil bubble). It is not a presidency issue to regulate a free market, there are times of ineffeciency from speculators, like right now. However, a free market is the most effecient beast over time and any "steps" to dicate the market will make things worst. Having said all this, i do not agree or disagree (if that's possible) with the current presidency, I don't want to turn this into a political debate.
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From: Seattle
'19 E63S, ‘16 CLS63 RIP, '09 E63 Gone, '06 M5 Gone, '97 Supra TT Gone
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From: Kildeer, IL
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I never said that. They don't need to regulate the oil speculators, they need to release 1/3 of our domestic oil reserve, flood the market and cause the price of oil to crash. This will absolutely crush the speculators, cause them to have massive losses and never try to squeeze american consumers like this again. THERE ARE NO OIL SUPPLY ISSUES. THERE IS PLENTY TO GO AROUND. THE PRICE IS ARTIFICIALLY INFLATED BY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS.
Last edited by Bisco; Jun 20, 2008 at 03:57 PM.
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"Never try to squeeze american consumers"...never, is a big word. As to supply issue, I couldn't agree more.
I never said that. They don't need to regulate the oil speculators, they need to release 1/3 of our domestic oil reserve, flood the market and cause the price of oil to crash. This will absolutely crush the speculators, cause them to have massive losses and never try to squeeze american consumers like this again. THERE ARE NO OIL SUPPLY ISSUES. THERE IS PLENTY TO GO AROUND. THE PRICE IS ARTIFICIALLY INFLATED BY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS.[/QUOTE]
I never said that. They don't need to regulate the oil speculators, they need to release 1/3 of our domestic oil reserve, flood the market and cause the price of oil to crash. This will absolutely crush the speculators, cause them to have massive losses and never try to squeeze american consumers like this again. THERE ARE NO OIL SUPPLY ISSUES. THERE IS PLENTY TO GO AROUND. THE PRICE IS ARTIFICIALLY INFLATED BY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS.[/QUOTE]
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just to add to the discussion
my level of interest to modify any of my cars has dropped significantly.
I would love to have more HP and be able to be the 11's but with gas prices and horrible R/E market.. I rather keep my cash or avoid credit.
If anything I spend my money on things that my family can enjoy.. New surround system for our Movie Room, a new LCD 1080p Front Projector, new I-Mac 20".. ect
While these toys are not necessary.. they will entertain the family while we cook dinner instead of eating out almost every other day.
my level of interest to modify any of my cars has dropped significantly.
I would love to have more HP and be able to be the 11's but with gas prices and horrible R/E market.. I rather keep my cash or avoid credit.
If anything I spend my money on things that my family can enjoy.. New surround system for our Movie Room, a new LCD 1080p Front Projector, new I-Mac 20".. ect
While these toys are not necessary.. they will entertain the family while we cook dinner instead of eating out almost every other day.
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"Never try to squeeze american consumers"...never, is a big word. As to supply issue, I couldn't agree more.
I never said that. They don't need to regulate the oil speculators, they need to release 1/3 of our domestic oil reserve, flood the market and cause the price of oil to crash. This will absolutely crush the speculators, cause them to have massive losses and never try to squeeze american consumers like this again. THERE ARE NO OIL SUPPLY ISSUES. THERE IS PLENTY TO GO AROUND. THE PRICE IS ARTIFICIALLY INFLATED BY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS.
I never said that. They don't need to regulate the oil speculators, they need to release 1/3 of our domestic oil reserve, flood the market and cause the price of oil to crash. This will absolutely crush the speculators, cause them to have massive losses and never try to squeeze american consumers like this again. THERE ARE NO OIL SUPPLY ISSUES. THERE IS PLENTY TO GO AROUND. THE PRICE IS ARTIFICIALLY INFLATED BY INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS.
+1 there is plenty of oil to go around. We need a couple of new refineries. if supply was so tight and demand was that great I guess we will start alternative day fill ups just like the late 70's.
If our gov't reduces or eliminates the tariffs for Brazil sugar cane ethanol and our gov't reduces the ethanol % in gas say from 10% to 5% then we would see a instant 50c-$1 decrease in gas. It just make economic sense since sugar cane is more efficient and cheaper to produce than corn. let our farmers start growing wheat again.
in the US it is said we have one of the largest oil reserves in the world in the Utah/New Mexico Area 3 to 4x's the amount of Saudi Arabia. based on 10MM barrels a day can last up to 220 years not including Alaska, offshore drilling and mother Russia.
Also the gov of Montana is begging the big oil companies to build a refinery in their backyard but only some mid-size firms are showing interest.
just like the .com and real estate bubble the commodities bubble will burst soon.
Andrew
