stevebez

Hi Guys.... off topic poll here about US economy...

NFP payrolls surprised on Friday posting a much lower decline than what the mkts were expecting - making many rethink the speed and integrity of the US economic recovery. Although so many new variables have been introduced its difficult to tell the clouds from the shadows - so how do you see it?

Some say unemployment declining because workers who have been looking for work have given up and as a result technically are not included in umemployment - you have to be an active job seeker to "qualify". Some say its an effect of all the stimulus programes and not real. Besides all this the numer of people unemployed over the last 27 weeks has risen.

So how do you see the job market / employment scenario in your area?

Forrest Gump 9

From what I've heard, the next fall-out will be the commercial real estate market. There are definitely alot more vacant buildings and shopping center than before. I hope not, but let brace for the worse.

Forrest Gump 9

Oh yeah, as far as the unemployment number go, a lot of people start working for themselves too (become consultants, freelancing,....) so the number may not be as acurate. On the side note, I was in MGM Detroit last month on a Tuesday and it was packed, you figure that out.

DAGREEKNYC

My field is new construction , Mainly hi rise and residential complexes . We have been steady with work since this entire recession has hit . We had a few projects stop due to financing by Lehman but were taken over by BOA and are back on track . Payments terms are now out 60-90 for Bank financed projects and private financing is out 120-150 which is horrible . We did notice a increase in hotel and rental construction though .

Also federally funded projects such as Section 8 and assisted living have increased .

Ill take it all and as long as the payments are still coming ill take the 150 days !!!

Houstonnewbie

I'm in oil & gas in Houston and my company has had a good year. Maybe I'm a bit optimistic...but the old addage says you get rich in a recession, not when everything is going well. We're being aggressive and so far it's working.

Credit is much harded to come by given the inherent risk in our industry, but if you've got proven economics deals can still be done. Overall our local economy remains relatively strong. Real estate is recovering. Bank consolidations seem to have credit flowing to consumers again. Retailers seem busy.

Karlson

I am with the majority, it gets better but that ride won't be pretty.

bigben320e

You are right, it won't be pretty. To right the ship means some dead weight, the mutineers, and others detrimental must be cast off.

cahiil55k

Unemployment numbers have improved because seasonal holiday jobs are now being filled. I would expect the umemployment rate to increase after the holidays. Another gauge I use is home market values. One of my properties in a major metropolitan area lost almost 25% of it's value over the past 2 years. Until it gains back just 5-10%, I can't say this recession is truly getting any better.

Bollywood

I work in the Foreclosure industry, and the Government has really stepped in and basically has suspended foreclosure processes almost 3-4 times to allow the lenders work things out with the borrowers. If this works, people will have more money to spend and the economy will finally rebound.

X2Board

I'm in software for Colleges and Universities and we have been doing quite well since the "recession" started. My company is still hiring as long as the person is qualified for the job.

speedpeddler

I'm in the automotive aftermarket, (drag racing), industry and business is holding steady but way down from a couple of years ago. I live in south Florida and IMO the economy here on main street is pretty bad. Lots of people out of work and a housing market that's as bad as any place in the nation with no signs of recovery.

bigben320e

Guys, to keep things in perspective you have to look beyond just what goes on in a localized area. Look at things from a wider lens, some here are. Just a .02 observation.

That goes for some that see things all peachy or some that are thinking all is gone to hell.

TheVazha

?? I'm in LA Cali and we specialize in high rize luxury developments. We work with developers from conception to sell out. Most if not all our business is coming from receivers at the bank. Developers out here are getting wiped out. Their equity partners are hurting, the Mezzanine lenders are hurting, and the bank is knocking on the door! I'm glad to hear you guys are doing well, out here its ugly for developers. I do think things are leveling out tho. Not getting better any time soon but we're almost at the bottom....

kompressede

I agree with Forrest Gump. Commercial real estate is going to come to forth front next year. As far as unemoployment is concerned - the statistics are only showing the percentage (10.2%) for the people that are collecting unemeplyment not the ones that are unemployed and not collecting anymore.
Just my 2 cents

Full Throttle

My wife does as well. She is leading a national foreclosure prevention and loan modification campaign at her job. As you know good work is being done and the Treasury has stepped in and is financing this initiative in many ways. However There is still a lot of work to be done. We are far from out of the woods. If you're in the market for a new home and you have some capitol now is the time to buy. You can buy $1,000,000 homes now for half of their value just 3-4 years ago.

dasrok8

In Mich, it's still brutal.

We're in automotive assembly tooling. Good news is they can't go any lower. We generally work 3-4 yrs out for new products and that is looking very strong. Ford perhaps the strongest of locals. Toyota, BMW strongest others.

REAL unemployment here is around 17%. Decent/nice houses in burbs are down 40-50%. but seem to be holding.

A buddy builds Hospitals/Schools/Malls etc, is on indefinite holds for most.

Movers and temp agencies are going gang busters, go figure.

Zero consumer confidence in MI. Once that comes back we'll be back better than ever.

Not to go all political, but not impressed so far with Pres OB so far.

(Rant off)

George

DAGREEKNYC

This is why i will never move out of NYC , We are usually the last and or the least effected by the down turn .

CharlyE500

I agree with Forrest Gump too, Commercial real estate is already hitting now. Plus the unemployment rate (12% california) + the credit card loan... I think the economoc wont be too good for at least 3 more years.

JAYCL600

There will always be small pockets of steady growth, but those are by far the minority. We have to look at the country as a whole. All of you guys discussing commercial real estate are hitting the nail on the head IMHO. Its horrible out there, there is zero funding for commercial projects. With vacancies continuing to increase, this further decreases their cash flow and investment capital. I own a small diamond and jewelry business and Im down 65%. Its not pretty out there for any biz large or small, but those who can sustain themselves thru the tough times will be poised for a nice rebound....when who knows but it aint next year thats for sure.....

Yacht Master

So true, The collapse of the Commercial Property market will be the next leg down. Don't put too much faith in the recent change in unemployment numbers 10.2 to 10.0 the numbers are skewed and now unreliable, as true unemployment is north of 15%. Now Wall street is shaping up fine or so it would seem. Most publicly held companies have trimmed their work force and sold off non performing assets, and that makes the street happy.

Like Forrest says, "brace for the worst". We have lost too many GOOD JOBS and they are not coming back.

stevebez

The impression that is being created in the press and elsewhere is that the recovery is on track.... and painting a +ve picture - which I suppose they have to do. I dont think there is much point in them lamenting on the economies woes.

The picture that comes from almost all your comments paints a much more stark and real world picture of whats really going on. This is very interesting in particular when you have Goldman Sachs calling for 4.5 % GDP growth next year. While this may be the case, we need many years of this type of growth to reconstruct the real destruction of jobs. The recreation of employment is going to take a very long time .... and something the Fed has caught onto I think.

Com Real Estate is a major concern, as it is also a problem here in the UK. It may well be the next phase of this systemic collapse...

Either way you look at it, its time to tighten those belts and hang on I guess... but that does not mean we cannot remain +ve!

DAGREEKNYC

im a firm believer that this is the time when fortunes are made so invest wisely and good luck .

A smart funny looking man with glasses by the name of Warren Buffett says " When the streets run red with blood then is the time to buy " .

Forrest Gump 9

The problem is, by then nobody have any money left to buy. ; )

DAGREEKNYC

SELL THE MO CEDES !!!!!