Who is the best engine builder at AMG?
01-01-2019, 09:46 PM
#26
Member
Thread Starter
And how does this help answer the question of how many M157 engines were made per year? This is needed to calculate how many techs build OUR engines. Knowing these 2 values THEN allows us to calculate the probability of 1 customer getting the same builder twice.
Its not clear to me how this seems to keep being misunderstood.
Thanks for that math though. Pretty easy to do that in my head. But again, it does not answer the question at hand.
01-02-2019, 10:59 AM
#27
MBWorld Fanatic!
This article says 40 - 50 build the M157 but in another article is said there are 200 that have build plates and certified to build engines all but 5 are men.
https://www.motortrend.com/news/buil...nshift-295723/
https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-car...he-horsepower/
https://www.motortrend.com/news/buil...nshift-295723/
https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-car...he-horsepower/
1) We will use the best case scenario of 40 techs rather than 50. This will tell us minimum odds.
2) We will assume that the 40 techs in 2012 (year of the article) did not change, up or down in quantity.
3) We will assume all techs have the same productivity level.
4) We will assume that certain techs do not "specialize" build M157's for particular models.
5) We will assume that any particular tech does not have any geographic protocols such as his/her engines only go to Europe for example.
6) We will assume no turnover and it is the same 40 techs through the build life of the M157.
7) We will assume that AMG does not assign a particular tech for all overage (surplus engines for replacement).
There may be another variable or two that I missed, but this is most of it.
So the odds, with these assumptions, of myself getting the same builder as my original engine for my replacement engine is quite simple to calculate. It is simply a 1 in 40 chance, which equals 2.5%. This is still quite remarkable that it happened. How many bets would you take with a 2.5% chance of winning?
Now if before I ever bought the car, I was hoping to get an engine from Marcel (or any other specific builder) the odds would also be 40:1. However, in this scenario, the odds of then also getting him/her a second time for the replacement motor jumps WAY up to 1600:1 !!
So there it is!! I did the math. LOL
Cheers
01-02-2019, 11:05 PM
#28
Member
Thread Starter
OK, Now I can easily calculate the odds of getting the same builder for both of my M157's. Of course this will not be the same odds as getting a particular builder twice. What I mean is if you were start from the beginning with a particular tech in mind and hopes of getting his engine, and then get that same tech again for the replacement engine, those odds are much higher. Before I get to the 2 different scenarios, I will need to list the various assumptions made simply due to lack of info:
1) We will use the best case scenario of 40 techs rather than 50. This will tell us minimum odds.
2) We will assume that the 40 techs in 2012 (year of the article) did not change, up or down in quantity.
3) We will assume all techs have the same productivity level.
4) We will assume that certain techs do not "specialize" build M157's for particular models.
5) We will assume that any particular tech does not have any geographic protocols such as his/her engines only go to Europe for example.
6) We will assume no turnover and it is the same 40 techs through the build life of the M157.
7) We will assume that AMG does not assign a particular tech for all overage (surplus engines for replacement).
There may be another variable or two that I missed, but this is most of it.
So the odds, with these assumptions, of myself getting the same builder as my original engine for my replacement engine is quite simple to calculate. It is simply a 1 in 40 chance, which equals 2.5%. This is still quite remarkable that it happened. How many bets would you take with a 2.5% chance of winning?
Now if before I ever bought the car, I was hoping to get an engine from Marcel (or any other specific builder) the odds would also be 40:1. However, in this scenario, the odds of then also getting him/her a second time for the replacement motor jumps WAY up to 1600:1 !!
So there it is!! I did the math. LOL
Cheers
1) We will use the best case scenario of 40 techs rather than 50. This will tell us minimum odds.
2) We will assume that the 40 techs in 2012 (year of the article) did not change, up or down in quantity.
3) We will assume all techs have the same productivity level.
4) We will assume that certain techs do not "specialize" build M157's for particular models.
5) We will assume that any particular tech does not have any geographic protocols such as his/her engines only go to Europe for example.
6) We will assume no turnover and it is the same 40 techs through the build life of the M157.
7) We will assume that AMG does not assign a particular tech for all overage (surplus engines for replacement).
There may be another variable or two that I missed, but this is most of it.
So the odds, with these assumptions, of myself getting the same builder as my original engine for my replacement engine is quite simple to calculate. It is simply a 1 in 40 chance, which equals 2.5%. This is still quite remarkable that it happened. How many bets would you take with a 2.5% chance of winning?
Now if before I ever bought the car, I was hoping to get an engine from Marcel (or any other specific builder) the odds would also be 40:1. However, in this scenario, the odds of then also getting him/her a second time for the replacement motor jumps WAY up to 1600:1 !!
So there it is!! I did the math. LOL
Cheers
01-03-2019, 11:46 AM
#29
MBWorld Fanatic!
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Kei2thehwy (10-14-2019)
