Prices won’t come down until the number of people willing to pay ADM go away. That is an unknown variable.

Since there’s not much supply even before the shutdown, it will take awhile but assuming there aren’t massive changes I expect it to take a few years. When a new model comes out such as a G73 I expect the ADMs to return.

I do not expect it to keep climbing though. There’s a limit to how much people will pay because once you get high enough, people will just buy something else that costs the same but with higher perceived value, like Urus, Bentayga, Cullinan, Ferrari etc.

Safe to say prices aren’t likely to go down in the next year since there will be at least 6-8 months of no new cars so static supply.

Oops, yeah. Wrote that too quickly.

There is just no cars right mow. Dealers are asking 30K ADM on GLS 580! And there are no cars at BMW dealerships either and Corvettes are selling for 20-30K ADM. It is just not a good time to buy any car! No one can read the future but carmakers will crank production to gain market share as soon as they can because they make even more money on parts than they do on new car sales.

One interesting point is that I just logged back in to autotrader and many of the heavily marked up cars from a month ago are still there. I followed very closely for a number of months and even marked up cars were gone in a matter of days... definitely within two weeks. Now you've got a few cars on there for 5 weeks+ so it appears we've found prices that the market isn't imminently supportive of. Not to say they won't eventually sell at their price, but certainly things are slowing...

I think for every dealership charging a ADM there is one that is not. I bought 3 cars from Mercedes Pittsburgh and they do not charge an ADM. I picked up a 2022 BMW X5 at Sloan BMW at MSRP yesterday, they told me no ADM's. I have my name on a list for a 911 GTS with no ADM. Sometimes I think the forums stir up the FOMO attitude. Like others have said if no one pays a ADM that would be the end of them. Sooner or later the buyers with deep pockets have to be satisfied and the ADM's will diminish.
Just my thoughts of course.

One interesting fact was how both dealers and private sellers immediately increased the prices.
The well equiped ones tgat were sill below 50k mark up were immediately sold

I'd bet money that in today's market they are charging ADM for a G63 (if not I'll buy a G63 today from them). Even the corporate owned store in manhattan that "doesn't chare adm" is charging ADM.

the other cars you mention are irrelevant to the current G63 market due to the motor issue. Anybody who pays ADM on a regular BMW is insane. Frankly even in today's market you could have done better than MSRP on your X5. Many porsche dealers are charging ADM on regular 992s right now (which is bonkers) but you are correct that there are still plenty that are not.... now if you were buying a 992 GT3 I'd expect you get hit with at least $5k ADM.

There is always a nouveau riche born every day lol!

I'd bet money that in today's market they are charging ADM for a G63 (if not I'll buy a G63 today from them).
I was told no ADM but the wait was 2 years before they pulled the plug. Local dealer had a $2500 ADM on a E350 last week.

My wifes g63, october build

Is no adm

But im a long term customer, not in it for the flip

Here's likely our first look at the new powertrain for the G63.... will it be a G63S E-performance next in the production line? https://www.autoblog.com/2021/08/31/...#slide-2345592

I actually dig Hybrids over full EVs.
Still get that juicy V8 with some electric assistance

Otherwise, no progress

Patience is a virtue.

It appears that MBUSA is decreasing allocations to dealers that have new unsold cars in stock so the dealers are buying the cars and selling them used or in auction with 10 miles on the odometer so they no longer have new G63 inventory. A staggering number of 2021 G63s with no miles on the odometers sold on Manheim in August with an average selling price of $234,000. Many of them could be going overseas.

I don't know how they could do this without serious repurcussions. These will almost surely be exported in much less than a year, which will cost the dealers dearly.

100% not true.

Please check the number of 2021 G63s sold on Manheim with less than 100 miles in August!! More than 46 2021 G63s auctioned so far in one month and most of them with very little or no mileage!! That's a massive number for a 2021 car with non export agreement! There is no control where the car goes once sold on Manheim! I don't think private buyers sell their cars on Manheim or even know what Manheim is so these cars are all being auctioned by auto retailers!!

Not MB dealers but second hand dealers. They got them likely in on "trades" (likely people like you & me who see this as a chance to make some money) and they are now trying to flip them while the market is super hot before MBUSA announces timelines for G63/G550 production restart. MB isn't going to kill V8s but people for some reason keep on thinking that and they are going to panic buy a G63 for way too much money...

These second hand dealers are ordering G63 and buying them to resell them at profit . This is the same problem w any high end product such as Rolex watches, the dealers do not have watches but the grey market dealers are selling them w a huge profit.

As people have pointed out these are cars being flipped by used car dealers and private parties. Has nothing to do with allocations.

2021 GT Black Series traded Manheim yesterday @ $580k. Dealer to Dealer.

don't know why! The style has been around

Won't it be the Hybrid version though?

Might be, but even when the G550 came out there was a hybrid assist version but they kept it out of the G Wagen. They could have also slapped in their I-6 (which is a great engine) for the US market but they didn't. If you look at sales numbers, the G Wagen is a drop in the bucket when it comes to impact to the overall fleet fuel economy. I can see them dropping in hybrids for the GLE and GLS where they sell a whole lot more of them.

Doesn't even make sense from an engineering POV to put in the resources to make it a hybrid, but who knows they might. I would think they will just add in an all electric version along side the V8s.