The future of internal combustion engine cars
08-27-2022, 03:00 PM
#101
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All good points.
But the problem is that EPA should be setting the standards for the nation, not an overpopulated state.
That's why Bosch and other OEMs sued the EPA and 2010, and the US supreme Court issued the directive to the EPA to formulate rules and regulations. EPA did not.
So in 2015, Bosch at et.al. were heard again, and the Supreme Court issued a judgment.
Still nothing, and the EPA has been defunded further.
I do not want some State with unusual climatic and population pressures, whose own policies have been disastrous, dictating regulations for anything of mine.
As political as the EPA has become (I still work closely with the EPA and State environmental departments) they need to fund their own research, and formulate wise emission standards for the entire country.
Then there's the EU standards, driven by the Paris Accord. I think there at tier 7 and many of our regs are based on their tier 5.
So I agree with you that standards are important for the reasons you mentioned. But whose standards, developed by whom, is the question.
I'd like to take it out of the political football arena and put it into the "what works" arena.
But the problem is that EPA should be setting the standards for the nation, not an overpopulated state.
That's why Bosch and other OEMs sued the EPA and 2010, and the US supreme Court issued the directive to the EPA to formulate rules and regulations. EPA did not.
So in 2015, Bosch at et.al. were heard again, and the Supreme Court issued a judgment.
Still nothing, and the EPA has been defunded further.
I do not want some State with unusual climatic and population pressures, whose own policies have been disastrous, dictating regulations for anything of mine.
As political as the EPA has become (I still work closely with the EPA and State environmental departments) they need to fund their own research, and formulate wise emission standards for the entire country.
Then there's the EU standards, driven by the Paris Accord. I think there at tier 7 and many of our regs are based on their tier 5.
So I agree with you that standards are important for the reasons you mentioned. But whose standards, developed by whom, is the question.
I'd like to take it out of the political football arena and put it into the "what works" arena.
08-27-2022, 03:14 PM
#102
Super Member
Autoweek asks the following:
Here's the link: https://www.autoweek.com
"Do California’s Zero Emission by 2035 Rules Go Far Enough?"
Here's the link: https://www.autoweek.com
Last edited by slk55er; 08-27-2022 at 03:17 PM.
08-27-2022, 03:21 PM
#103
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Interesting. Bosch, et. al.'s suit could have been a chip on CARB's shoulder which made them look for VW's, and ultimately MB's, diesel emissions software defeat device. Gov't. won in that case. As always. VW Dieselgate originated from CARB's investigations. Bosch is the common denominator between VW's and MB's diesel emission systems, something that doesn't make headlines on this topic too often.
It was discovered by a college lab, who showed that under some operating conditions, automobiles might exceed standards, as do all cars. I don't know about CARB, but the EPA approved the lines of code that allowed for a quicker warm-up. As they do with all cars.
This one became a public embarrassment for the EPA. But luckily, the embarrassment was deflected as big business was attacked by the press. Of course, evil things that they all are. It was just too complicated an issue for cable news to handle.
The government's case was won in the Court of Public Opinion.
I believe that Volkswagen, Mercedes, Peugeot and Bosch had plenty of grounds to sue for damages, but it's a pretty big gamble to sue your Regulator.
BTW the et.al. partners in the Bosch lawsuit included everything from tire, brake, glass, airbag, chip and auto manufacturers.
Last edited by mikapen; 08-27-2022 at 03:32 PM.
08-27-2022, 03:45 PM
#104
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The thing about regulation is that it levels the playing field, gives manufacturers clarity about what is required to meet that common standard, and how they can invest over time with some sort of confidence that there's a commercial return at the end. It also gives consumers confidence that the product they're buying meets those standards. Yes there is an issue with the public charging infrastructure outside of places like California, and even here access for low income people is not great.
But like a reality show that runs variations of the same plot season after season but always ends up with pretty much the same outcome, in this case we're not in season 1. We're in season 3 or 4, the behaviors are the same as season 1 and 2 and so will be the outcome.
But like a reality show that runs variations of the same plot season after season but always ends up with pretty much the same outcome, in this case we're not in season 1. We're in season 3 or 4, the behaviors are the same as season 1 and 2 and so will be the outcome.
Maybe it’s a coincidence but the dirty little secret might be Governor Newsom running for President in 2024. This law aligns him even more with the Green movement. (Look what I did for Climate change) He recently donated $100,000 to Charlie Crist running for Governor of Florida against DeSantis, a potential rival. There is a faction trying to get Newsom in the running but they have a delicate issue with Biden in the way. They need his supporters. Of all the strange things, I saw the White House Press Secretary being grilled by Don Lemon. The press may be ready to help get rid of Joe but his Student Loan giveaway raised his approval rating.
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08-27-2022, 04:20 PM
#105
No worries
As I was buying my car, a thought crossed my mind: what will the value of my car be in a few years?
The reason why that thought crossed my mind is that car prices are driven in large part by supply and demand. What will the demand be like for these types of cars as we transition over to EVs? Will there more or less in a few years? I thought about this and I’m not sure. If no one wants to buy ICE engines five years from now, will my car be essentially worthless? I understand that these are depreciating assets to begin with, but will this transition depreciate them even more or will it have the opposite effect?
The reason why that thought crossed my mind is that car prices are driven in large part by supply and demand. What will the demand be like for these types of cars as we transition over to EVs? Will there more or less in a few years? I thought about this and I’m not sure. If no one wants to buy ICE engines five years from now, will my car be essentially worthless? I understand that these are depreciating assets to begin with, but will this transition depreciate them even more or will it have the opposite effect?
08-27-2022, 05:37 PM
#106
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I personally believe the transition to EVs will happen a lot sooner than we realize. It’s happening now before our very eyes. It’s like the stock market; big rallies are hard to spot until they’re half over. It’s just human nature. Maybe I’m wrong. I wouldn’t bet on it, though.
The impact to utilities will be tempered in large part to managed charging and charging during the middle of the night when electricity demand is low. I’m not saying there won’t be impacts, but it won’t be as bad as everyone predicts.
The impact to utilities will be tempered in large part to managed charging and charging during the middle of the night when electricity demand is low. I’m not saying there won’t be impacts, but it won’t be as bad as everyone predicts.
08-27-2022, 06:57 PM
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@Frenetic What are the reasons is it happening before our very eyes?
08-27-2022, 07:53 PM
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@Frenetic What are the reasons is it happening before our very eyes?
Of the 265 million cars in the us there were less than a million total EV & PHEV’s sold last statistics I could find…some are out of service. I didn’t count the non PHEV’s like our GLE 450 & up. Last statistics from Q1 2022 were that 4.6% of new car registrations were EV’s, 208k of about 4.5 million cars sold. Momentum is building but even if half of new car sales were EV’s it won’t put a dent in the overall fleet by 2035 since there probably aren’t enough raw materials to come close to 100% EV by 2035. Maybe there will be a miracle breakthrough in new materials that are readily available.🤣
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chassis (08-27-2022)
08-27-2022, 11:09 PM
#110
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All good points.
But the problem is that EPA should be setting the standards for the nation, not an overpopulated state.
That's why Bosch and other OEMs sued the EPA and 2010, and the US supreme Court issued the directive to the EPA to formulate rules and regulations. EPA did not.
So in 2015, Bosch at et.al. were heard again, and the Supreme Court issued a judgment.
Still nothing, and the EPA has been defunded further.
I do not want some State with unusual climatic and population pressures, whose own policies have been disastrous, dictating regulations for anything of mine.
As political as the EPA has become (I still work closely with the EPA and State environmental departments) they need to fund their own research, and formulate wise emission standards for the entire country.
Then there's the EU standards, driven by the Paris Accord. I think there at tier 7 and many of our regs are based on their tier 5.
So I agree with you that standards are important for the reasons you mentioned. But whose standards, developed by whom, is the question.
I'd like to take it out of the political football arena and put it into the "what works" arena.
But the problem is that EPA should be setting the standards for the nation, not an overpopulated state.
That's why Bosch and other OEMs sued the EPA and 2010, and the US supreme Court issued the directive to the EPA to formulate rules and regulations. EPA did not.
So in 2015, Bosch at et.al. were heard again, and the Supreme Court issued a judgment.
Still nothing, and the EPA has been defunded further.
I do not want some State with unusual climatic and population pressures, whose own policies have been disastrous, dictating regulations for anything of mine.
As political as the EPA has become (I still work closely with the EPA and State environmental departments) they need to fund their own research, and formulate wise emission standards for the entire country.
Then there's the EU standards, driven by the Paris Accord. I think there at tier 7 and many of our regs are based on their tier 5.
So I agree with you that standards are important for the reasons you mentioned. But whose standards, developed by whom, is the question.
I'd like to take it out of the political football arena and put it into the "what works" arena.
08-28-2022, 12:30 AM
#111
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And the AG's office, and I guess several administrations and congresses.
However, with as much political clout and population as California possesses, I believe they should recognize that their decrees affect the entire country. Resist being political, learn from some of there earlier policy mistakes. Saving the planet, as it were.
08-28-2022, 07:56 AM
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@Frenetic What are the reasons is it happening before our very eyes?
Every manufacturer will soon have a lineup of BEV or plug-in Hybrids that match or rival their ICE lineup. We’re at the literal tipping point. Again, it’s not easy to see a massive change when you’re literally standing in the middle of it, but it’s happening, right now.
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chassis (08-28-2022)
08-28-2022, 08:30 AM
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It’s because we moved beyond the curious novelty of a Tesla. It’s every manufacturer electrifying their most popular models, and it’s occurring right now before our very eyes. Ford’s F150, Chevy’s Silverado, Mercedes' EQE SUV to name a few.
Every manufacturer will soon have a lineup of BEV or plug-in Hybrids that match or rival their ICE lineup. We’re at the literal tipping point. Again, it’s not easy to see a massive change when you’re literally standing in the middle of it, but it’s happening, right now.
Every manufacturer will soon have a lineup of BEV or plug-in Hybrids that match or rival their ICE lineup. We’re at the literal tipping point. Again, it’s not easy to see a massive change when you’re literally standing in the middle of it, but it’s happening, right now.
08-28-2022, 09:19 AM
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I’m sure there are a lot of reasons behind this change. But whether I agree with them or not is immaterial. I’m just trying to reconcile with it and see how it may directly impact me, both now and in the immediate future.
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chassis (08-28-2022)
08-28-2022, 09:33 AM
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It’s because we moved beyond the curious novelty of a Tesla. It’s every manufacturer electrifying their most popular models, and it’s occurring right now before our very eyes. Ford’s F150, Chevy’s Silverado, Mercedes' EQE SUV to name a few.
Every manufacturer will soon have a lineup of BEV or plug-in Hybrids that match or rival their ICE lineup. We’re at the literal tipping point. Again, it’s not easy to see a massive change when you’re literally standing in the middle of it, but it’s happening, right now.
Every manufacturer will soon have a lineup of BEV or plug-in Hybrids that match or rival their ICE lineup. We’re at the literal tipping point. Again, it’s not easy to see a massive change when you’re literally standing in the middle of it, but it’s happening, right now.
We know the EV is for real. You are correct and almost every Brand has a “plan” to go full EV. Now CA has legislation. But wanting something to happen, legislating it, doesn’t always work out. The pendulum may swing back to reality once common sense and the cold hard facts jump out of the shadows. The notion that they will cost less hasn’t happened yet. They could easily cost more to the public if the politicians require the Auto Company to supply charging infrastructure. How long before the gas tax is replaced with some kind of EV tax?
The EV is in its infancy and may evolve to become as reliable and trusted as the ICE is today. Early adopters are very probably going to be disappointed long term for all the reasons mentioned in this thread. It won’t take too many homes burning down from a Lithium Battery fire or a replacement battery costing 3 times the value of an out of warranty car to start getting more press. At some point, mainstream America will be confronted with how this impacts then personally. Most of us on this forum are not typical of the masses. We will buy a new car and will sell it long before an EV will need a battery. For the most part we have the ability to add a home charging component.
There are just too many questions and a lack of any long term plan by Government. The cost of this transition may be too high to tax our way out of it. Does Costco make business decisions like this? Do you? This is just typical politics and if history is a guide you can rest assured that it will cost the public a lot of money while the Politicians blame someone else for the failures.
08-28-2022, 10:17 AM
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I really don’t think it’s a matter of wanting anything. It’s just the way it is, whether we like it or not. The momentum is too great and I don’t believe there is any turning back now. We can wishful think all we want but that’s all it is at this point.
I don’t doubt the challenges and risks, but you have to remember that all of those minds that were once innovating ICE are now focusing on EVs. EVs and transportation electrification has A LOT of room for innovation, and whenever there is that opportunity, it tends to attract a lot of smart people (and money) trying to find solutions, and I’m sure they will.
We get to witness this all play out.
I don’t doubt the challenges and risks, but you have to remember that all of those minds that were once innovating ICE are now focusing on EVs. EVs and transportation electrification has A LOT of room for innovation, and whenever there is that opportunity, it tends to attract a lot of smart people (and money) trying to find solutions, and I’m sure they will.
We get to witness this all play out.
08-28-2022, 12:02 PM
#117
Member
I really don’t think it’s a matter of wanting anything. It’s just the way it is, whether we like it or not. The momentum is too great and I don’t believe there is any turning back now. We can wishful think all we want but that’s all it is at this point.
I don’t doubt the challenges and risks, but you have to remember that all of those minds that were once innovating ICE are now focusing on EVs. EVs and transportation electrification has A LOT of room for innovation, and whenever there is that opportunity, it tends to attract a lot of smart people (and money) trying to find solutions, and I’m sure they will.
We get to witness this all play out.
I don’t doubt the challenges and risks, but you have to remember that all of those minds that were once innovating ICE are now focusing on EVs. EVs and transportation electrification has A LOT of room for innovation, and whenever there is that opportunity, it tends to attract a lot of smart people (and money) trying to find solutions, and I’m sure they will.
We get to witness this all play out.
08-28-2022, 12:15 PM
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I really don’t think it’s a matter of wanting anything. It’s just the way it is, whether we like it or not. The momentum is too great and I don’t believe there is any turning back now. We can wishful think all we want but that’s all it is at this point.
I don’t doubt the challenges and risks, but you have to remember that all of those minds that were once innovating ICE are now focusing on EVs. EVs and transportation electrification has A LOT of room for innovation, and whenever there is that opportunity, it tends to attract a lot of smart people (and money) trying to find solutions, and I’m sure they will.
We get to witness this all play out.
I don’t doubt the challenges and risks, but you have to remember that all of those minds that were once innovating ICE are now focusing on EVs. EVs and transportation electrification has A LOT of room for innovation, and whenever there is that opportunity, it tends to attract a lot of smart people (and money) trying to find solutions, and I’m sure they will.
We get to witness this all play out.
The rate of change is already slowing, as is their gain in market share.
Government incentives will prolong the gain of market share, but the little guy's funding the richer purchasers will be meeting resistance soon. The continuing Administration's giveaways are rankling the voters already.
Even ignoring the infrastructure issues and raw material constraints, it's kind of a stretch to think that production will double twice in 7 years. Or would it have to be doubling three times?
The law of large numbers will overcome that growth.
As @Ron.s mentioned, I also expect an EV in my future. However, my feet are getting colder, as I look towards constraints, expenses, practicality if I'm not in a huge metro area, and the probable mistakes being made in the rush to production.
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Ron.s (08-28-2022)
08-28-2022, 01:32 PM
#119
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It's the law of small numbers, not a trend.
The rate of change is already slowing, as is their gain in market share.
Government incentives will prolong the gain of market share, but the little guy's funding the richer purchasers will be meeting resistance soon. The continuing Administration's giveaways are rankling the voters already.
Even ignoring the infrastructure issues and raw material constraints, it's kind of a stretch to think that production will double twice in 7 years. Or would it have to be doubling three times?
The law of large numbers will overcome that growth.
As @Ron.s mentioned, I also expect an EV in my future. However, my feet are getting colder, as I look towards constraints, expenses, practicality if I'm not in a huge metro area, and the probable mistakes being made in the rush to production.
The rate of change is already slowing, as is their gain in market share.
Government incentives will prolong the gain of market share, but the little guy's funding the richer purchasers will be meeting resistance soon. The continuing Administration's giveaways are rankling the voters already.
Even ignoring the infrastructure issues and raw material constraints, it's kind of a stretch to think that production will double twice in 7 years. Or would it have to be doubling three times?
The law of large numbers will overcome that growth.
As @Ron.s mentioned, I also expect an EV in my future. However, my feet are getting colder, as I look towards constraints, expenses, practicality if I'm not in a huge metro area, and the probable mistakes being made in the rush to production.
"Because the new regulations don’t kick in until 2026, “There is some time to figure out where the gaps are. But we’ve seen that investments coming to the federal government are actually sufficient to help to support infrastructure at least for the first several years of the program,” said Harris.
Pacific Gas and Electric Co. said the company is “well into our journey to prepare the grid for growing electrification” and installing vehicle charging ports at commercial and multi-family residential buildings to prepare the grid for 12,000 of vehicle-related electric load.
Vehicles (As of 10/1/2015)
- Total registered on-road vehicles in California: 29,830,797
- Total registered light-duty cars in California: 16,101,262
- Total registered light-duty trucks in California: 12,741,718
08-28-2022, 02:52 PM
#120
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@TexAg91 You're asking us to use math.
I must have a non-Government-approved calculator, because it refuses to divulge the results. Must be bad news.
I must have a non-Government-approved calculator, because it refuses to divulge the results. Must be bad news.
08-28-2022, 03:39 PM
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What's your guess as to the reasons? You seem to be a sharp person. What does your gut tell you? Not questioning your agreement or disagreement with them.
08-28-2022, 04:20 PM
#122
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You want to know what I think is causing all of this? Why the auto industry is racing to build EVs?
China, the largest car market in the world.
They are driving this more than anything else and our auto industry doesn’t want to be left out. It’s the same reason we keep getting these funky oversized grills. Are there environmental reasons behind this? Sure, but these automakers aren’t altruistic; they’re not doing this to save the planet, they’re doing to ensure they can sell in what is and will be in perpetuity the largest auto market in the world.
Again, that’s not the only reason, but it’s a big one. China is spending a lot of money researching and developing EVs and so goes the auto industry. We aren’t driving this industry anymore. As painful as that may seem, it’s reality.
China, the largest car market in the world.
They are driving this more than anything else and our auto industry doesn’t want to be left out. It’s the same reason we keep getting these funky oversized grills. Are there environmental reasons behind this? Sure, but these automakers aren’t altruistic; they’re not doing this to save the planet, they’re doing to ensure they can sell in what is and will be in perpetuity the largest auto market in the world.
Again, that’s not the only reason, but it’s a big one. China is spending a lot of money researching and developing EVs and so goes the auto industry. We aren’t driving this industry anymore. As painful as that may seem, it’s reality.
08-28-2022, 04:47 PM
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Priceless-So many answers in one picture! Things are so bad in California that Newsom had to delay closing a Nuclear Plant another 10 years.
Electrifying cars and light trucks to meet Paris climate goals
https://news.mit.edu/2021/electrifyi...ate-goals-0810
Last edited by Ron.s; 08-28-2022 at 04:51 PM.
08-28-2022, 05:06 PM
#124
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Even that article you linked explicitly states what I said in the first paragraph.
Are there environmental reasons. Yes. But this rodeo is being driven by China. That entire market is going electric and if Ford and Chevy or Mercedes wants to survive, they have to change too. And, we better get behind them or we’ll all be driving Chinese-designed and manufactured EVs https://business.cornell.edu/hub/202...-coming-first/
On Aug. 5, the White House announced that it seeks to ensure that 50 percent of all new passenger vehicles sold in the United States by 2030 are powered by electricity. The purpose of this target is to enable the U.S to remain competitive with China in the growing electric vehicle (EV) market
08-28-2022, 05:13 PM
#125
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Since it’s Sunday and nice outside I’m having a Toddy contemplating my EV order…Not
Here is some interesting info on Power that we are going to lose. Not only is Coal/NG bad but also Hydro and Nuclear. Mike can you plug this into your calculator for the Greenies?
Recent news feeds:California is slated to close its last remaining nuclear power plant, Diablo Canyon, in 2025. Officials there think they can replace it with new solar, wind and battery storage resources, though skeptics have questioned whether California's all-in renewable plan can work in a state of nearly 40 million people-Apr 20, 2022
Oops a few months later they changed the date 10 more years.
Electricity producers have announced plans to shutter 99.2 gigawatts of coal plants through 2030, IEEFA said in a report released Monday. Another 36.8 gigawatts are scheduled to retire or be converted to natural gas in subsequent years, leaving 82.4 gigawatts of capacity without closure plans.Apr 4, 2022
Lots of pressure to save the Salmon-Breaching the dams would significantly improve the ability of salmon and steelhead to swim from their inland spawning grounds to the Pacific Ocean, where they spend most of their lives, and then back to their original spawning grounds to procreate and die, the report said-3 days ago
BPA's principal mandate is to market the power generated from 31 federal hydroelectric projects with combined installed capacity of 22.5 GW.
This insignifican amount of power can all be replaced with Wind Power/Solar and Battery backup systems so not to worry🫣
Oh CARB says that EV’s will take an insignificant amount of power…you can take that to the Bank.
Here is some interesting info on Power that we are going to lose. Not only is Coal/NG bad but also Hydro and Nuclear. Mike can you plug this into your calculator for the Greenies?
Recent news feeds:California is slated to close its last remaining nuclear power plant, Diablo Canyon, in 2025. Officials there think they can replace it with new solar, wind and battery storage resources, though skeptics have questioned whether California's all-in renewable plan can work in a state of nearly 40 million people-Apr 20, 2022
Oops a few months later they changed the date 10 more years.
Electricity producers have announced plans to shutter 99.2 gigawatts of coal plants through 2030, IEEFA said in a report released Monday. Another 36.8 gigawatts are scheduled to retire or be converted to natural gas in subsequent years, leaving 82.4 gigawatts of capacity without closure plans.Apr 4, 2022
Lots of pressure to save the Salmon-Breaching the dams would significantly improve the ability of salmon and steelhead to swim from their inland spawning grounds to the Pacific Ocean, where they spend most of their lives, and then back to their original spawning grounds to procreate and die, the report said-3 days ago
BPA's principal mandate is to market the power generated from 31 federal hydroelectric projects with combined installed capacity of 22.5 GW.
This insignifican amount of power can all be replaced with Wind Power/Solar and Battery backup systems so not to worry🫣
Oh CARB says that EV’s will take an insignificant amount of power…you can take that to the Bank.
