mikapen

I wonder if development will actually stop. Yes, MB has done a lot with their modular 2L - 3L - 4L engines, 500cc per hole.
Once, just 25 years ago, 100hp / Liter was amazing, and now we see 200hp / Liter.

Since I'm in agreement that early promises to be "100% EV by 2030" ("market dependent") don't reconcile with raw materials and more, I expect hybrids to dominate. So will we see 300hp / Liter, in a 1000cc engine in that same time frame? I wouldn't be surprised.

Now, if the Feds would abandon their MPGe "estimates" for hybrids and EV's, and move toward more realistic stats, we wouldn't be fooled as much.
But they'd have to admit to the folly that's being perpetrated. Not this Election Cycle!
Let ICE development proceed - it might be the cleanest source of motive power, if great minids keep focused.

Frenetic

I wonder if leases will ever get affected when it comes to residual values. Don’t panic, it’s not happening yet, but if the demand for ICE cars drop, will the financial arm of these manufacturers take that consideration when pricing out the residual value of a lease?

What was once 50 to 55% now becomes 40 to 45%? It would make the cost of leasing even more expensive.

Drone_S213

Will keep NM home close to the Border and PEMEX Gasoline...lol. Not worried about resale values of disposable 2019 Buick Encore, 2020 CRV Hybrid, and 2021 recent Kia purchases made for Family in GA and MD. Ducati, Chevy SS, and Soul paid off and gifted Buick to Daughter. Tesla stock partially funded AMG ICE Purchase and will have 200sh left after the Split. Short term goal is to get Son graduated 2026...Daughter graduated MIT without any debt. My Mercedes is the last of the Mohicans and is ready for fun run back East next month after last tuition installment is paid for Fall Semester 2022. Previously flew 3X to ATL between last Christmas and kid's recent graduations. My retirement plan has worked itself out plus avoid bad weather like the plague...ready for deer hunting in SC/GA (6.5 creedmoor and .308 was an expense) and Fishing around Tampa with my current good health. My Future is Now. Will return to Mass Transit like my first ~25 years around NYC, Bicycle, or become a passenger when my V8s fade away. Already tested the Amtrak from BWI to Boston then used the Red Line to Cambridge last May-June. Hopefully EVs are augmented with Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles for the rest of the population...

Ron.s

I didn’t remember where Frisco was until last week when I spent a few days in Vail and Grand Junction. The I 70 corridor has changed a lot since I was last through there 20-30 years ago.
It’s crazy how much rain causing Denver area flooding last week followed by Moab flooding a few days ago. Not a “drop in the bucket” so to speak to help Lake Powell. My thought is it might be as much of a consumption problem as lack of precipitation. Last January I drove through a fair part of the agricultural region of SE California and Southern Arizona. The irrigation practices will need to change with the cutbacks announced recently. It occurred to me that it takes a lot more water to grow crops in the sandy desert soil, with sprinklers in sunny weather…a lot of evaporation & no clay to retain water. Maybe the desert isn’t a good place to be growing crops. The expansion of the Phoenix area population doesn’t help. St George UT is now asking for their unused allocation that would cost billions to access. I’ve had a second home in St George for 15 years and there is little effort at conservation there. (Domestic water used to irrigate lawns in the desert…lots of it running down the streets into a drain.) Las Vegas keeps growing, using more and more water. The Bureau of Reclamation has waited too long to address the issue so there might be a fight for the water brewing, an Attorneys dream job.

chassis

The industry is forecasting new vehicle production powertrain mix at 50% plug-in hybrid + BEV in 2029 in North America. Balance is ICE + mild hybrid.

There are headwinds to this, all have been hashed and re-hashed: government incentive support, consumer acceptance and utility/grid investment are some of the big ones.

Not 100% BEV by 2030 for North America. Far from it.

Ron.s

Glad I don’t live in California…this doesn’t clarify the situation for Hybrids. California gas stations in 20 years might be as scarce as electric charging is now, in 20 years. It will be interesting to see if they even have a plan for things like Electrical capacity and infrastructure.

“California will be the first major government to make the target binding. It is not a goal, but a deadline. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) will mandate that 35 percent of all new cars be zero-tailpipe-emissions by 2026, climbing to 68 percent in 2030 before all new gasoline-engine car sales are banned in 2035, per The Times.”

Frenetic

That probably won’t stop people from traveling to neighboring states to buy a car. Borderline dealerships might be a cottage industry.

However, since the law doesn’t restrict used cars, this might have the unintended effect of raising the value of ICE cars in the state. Heck, I can see people buying new in another state, registering it then selling it in CA as used with under 500 miles for a large markup.

chassis

Keep an eye on this chart over time. If it starts a slow ramp down, or continues relatively flat as is currently the case, it spells less gasoline intensity in the economy.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Le...s=wgfupus2&f=w

TexAg91

My guess is CARB will be relaxing these mandates before 2026… the infrastructure won’t be in place to support that much EV market penetration. The grid out there is already at capacity, and a high percentage of the population lives in apartments. How long before the wheels come off — what are they going to run out of first, water or electricity?

Aggie57

Someone has to lead the way and regardless it effects you too. California driven emission laws gave you your modern fuel efficient, high output, relatively clean ICE vehicle. Without their smog requirements car manufacturers would have quite happily continued to sell those dirty, inefficient, and slow carbureted vehicles of the 60’s. They were dragged screaming and yelling into the world of modern fuel injection and digital engine management. Now however they’re actually on board with the whole EV thing because a) they know it’s inevitable, b) they get to sell a bunch of new cars as the general vehicle fleet gets replaced, and c) ultimately they’ll make more money from vehicles that are cheaper to make and should have lower warranty costs.

p.s. I own and enjoy three gas powered cars, including a ‘73 Alfa GTV with twin Webers and a ‘20 Porsche 911. I’ve got a Polestar 2 arriving next month, at this stage we’re keeping our GLE but for how long?

mikapen

While I agree that some Regulatory influence must be exerted to affect some changes, the CARB has taken some embarrassing and self-defeating moves. CARB was "dragged screaming and yelling into the world of modern fuel injection and digital engine management," ineptly applying "rules" that the NHTSA already had put into effect in the early 60's.

CARB (est. 1967) wasn't around when mechanical fuel injection was introduced - 1953 or so by Mercedes. Electronic injection by Porsche, Saab and almost all other Euro cars in 1973, and so on.
Closed loop (Lamda sensor) emission systems were pioneered by Saab / Volvo in 1975, for Euro regs, not CARB.
CARB has been a disaster, IMO, not in touch with Science or Economics.
Paris has also destroyed their Air Quality with similar regulations, but CARB hasn't noticed that outcome (neither have the Feds) - and they continue to blindly follow.
They've even re-defined "green" so they can continue to use non-Green sources for electricity at highly inflated prices. They write their own dictionary.

Since they have so much Political Clout (population, not expertise), I hope that they do better research in the future. They owe it to everybody affected!

Ron.s

Let’s not forget what happened with the California RE tax on residential property. Now they have a F’d up freeze on residential property taxes so that people can’t trade homes without paying exorbitant taxes on their new one. That’s my understanding as explained by all the people moving here from CA. Taxed and priced out of CA.
Consumers may have the last word at the ballot box…unlikely in CA but it’s possible again.

mikapen

It's so interwoven into the culture there. The Tenant Protection Act (2019) produced the outrageous rent increases. But the "Action" had been taken, so the "action " is still touted, not the "outcome."
If Companies can continue to pay the unsustainable wages, Citizens won't notice as much. But if the next couple of years causes a lot of layoffs (already starting) then folks may get impatient. Never mind the Illegals being bused to Sanctuary Cities.
I apologize for a CA rant, but the whole enchilada is affecting every State within a thousand miles. I don't want to get caught, so we're considering moving east. We were targeting Boise, where we have Family, but they're leaving too, after three generations. Guess why.

Ron.s

I’ve long lost any desire for PC ness. I grew up in this area and left after college and then returned after moving out of State for employment. We are being invaded by people abandoning the *****hole they helped create only to keep the same mentality that created the problem.
IMO, too many people today focus on the personality or free stuff and not actual performance or outcomes of big decisions. They don’t understand the results of “feel good” policies. The media quit objectively analyzing political discourse long ago. Student loan forgiveness bought a lot of votes for midterm elections. Stupid economics in the face of record inflation, higher interest rates, Billions to Ukraine, COVID aftermath and a high probability of a recession. Bonehead economics 101 has a better understanding about these consequences than todays leadership…if they even care about anything except winning an election.

mikapen

And, in the end, It's really possible that CA's actions might stall the acceptance, or even practicality of EV's.
As is often the case, the Solution is worse than the Cure. AKA Inconvenient Truths.

Drone_S213

I remember reading and listening to stories from old timers at work how General Motors convinced Los Angeles Elected Officials to remove the "Green" Electric Streetcar vast network replaced by Buses and highway construction that led to more automobiles and Smog. Last of the Streetcars were decommissioned around 1961. Now California Officials are telling us the price of EVs will come down in price because of increased competition? As an Engineer Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles need to augment EVs in our Carb Zero Emissions Future.

(Later commuted to the Permian Basin Oilfields in a 2012 Honda CRZ Hybrid with a Fun 6-speed manual. After retirement from second career, traded it on a 2020 CRV AWD Hybrid that wife currently drives in Georgia. Never had to replace battery pack in that CRZ Hybrid after 8-years and nearly 150K miles)

Aggie57

I'm not talking about CARB, I'm talking about California. Those European cars you mention were most definitely developed to meet US standards, particularly California which was a significant market for them. In many cases they continued to manufacture and sell cars in other markets including Europe well into the 80's that had no hope of passing US emission regulations. I owned a series of Alfa's in Australia like that, some with twin Weber's and some with Bosch L-Jetronic but in the later case no closed loop system. That only came about for the MY86 cars with the later Motronic system.

In Alfa's case they mashed up a diesel FI pump with their 1960's 40-cylinder engine for the 1969 model year to meet pending emission regs, stopped selling it completely in 1970 because it couldn't meet the requirements, and restarted in '71 when they'd sorted the issues.

Ron.s

CARB=California Air Resource Board

Aggie57

Yes, a Department of the Californian EPA. Not sure what your point is but regardless the world is moving away from pure ICE vehicles and fast. Whether everyone agrees or not isn’t a current discussion, that’s already been lost. Yes, there’s an argument to retain hybrids but old fashioned pure ICE vehicles are soon for the history books and a few enthusiasts. All California is doing really is recognizing that.

slk55er

You may have seen my post #74 in this blog about Water and the need for burning more fossil fuels and the need for climate change. It is surprising that my local newspaper in this highly-liberal county would run this 'cause the real purpose of this Letter to the Editor was to jab those Greenies who think they can control the earth's climate by taxing fossil fuels and giving incentives to EVs through rebates or tax credits. (Or by banning ICEs.) Huh!

Ron.s

Let me correct that for you…
All California is doing really is trying to mandate EV’s for the rest of the country.

The argument is far from over for EV’s, at least not until EV feasibility becomes reality. California doesn’t have enough electric power for todays needs and there doesn’t seem to be a plan for the future. This is a simply a political move….let’s require EV’s and then figure out how to do it.
There is no plan on how to develop or fund the infrastructure. Has anyone even started to develop projections and a plan including the costs? I’ll bet not, because if they did they would instantly lose public support.
No successful individual or business can survive with half a$sed decisions like these but then a business or individual has to use their own money. Maybe some California voters will be more interested in alternatives when taxes increase some more. There will be many people that don’t have access to convenient charging and might not like waiting in line at charging stations.
I’m at the age and means that none of this really affects me personally. I feel bad for our country. The good old USA doesn’t have infinite borrowing capacity…too much of our debt held by China. Biden just forgave a bunch of money on student loans with no idea of the cost to taxpayers…but it will win some votes. Estimates of the cost now range from $300 Billion to $980 Billion at a time of record inflation. 69-73% of the forgiveness goes to the top 60% incomes. I’m not against EV’s just the stupidity of the decisions and mandates that never seem to have a plan for costs and how to fund them.

chassis

A trump card is held in the hands of the electric utilities. Until they get their heads, and investment plans, around this, nothing is certain.

A parallel interested party is the petroleum industry. They are likely watching and eating popcorn, and via political, legal and financial pressure will either help or hinder EV migration as they see fit to serve their agenda. It's just business.

It's just greenies and car companies that want EVs. Not many others.

mikapen

In many ways, EVS are like CFLs. A toxic, bad idea with incentives. Other another mess to clean up. Next chapter, please.

Aggie57

The thing about regulation is that it levels the playing field, gives manufacturers clarity about what is required to meet that common standard, and how they can invest over time with some sort of confidence that there's a commercial return at the end. It also gives consumers confidence that the product they're buying meets those standards. Yes there is an issue with the public charging infrastructure outside of places like California, and even here access for low income people is not great.

But like a reality show that runs variations of the same plot season after season but always ends up with pretty much the same outcome, in this case we're not in season 1. We're in season 3 or 4, the behaviors are the same as season 1 and 2 and so will be the outcome.

mikapen

All good points.
But the problem is that EPA should be setting the standards for the nation, not an overpopulated state.

That's why Bosch and other OEMs sued the EPA and 2010, and the US supreme Court issued the directive to the EPA to formulate rules and regulations. EPA did not.
So in 2015, Bosch at et.al. were heard again, and the Supreme Court issued a judgment.
Still nothing, and the EPA has been defunded further.

I do not want some State with unusual climatic and population pressures, whose own policies have been disastrous, dictating regulations for anything of mine.
As political as the EPA has become (I still work closely with the EPA and State environmental departments) they need to fund their own research, and formulate wise emission standards for the entire country.

Then there's the EU standards, driven by the Paris Accord. I think there at tier 7 and many of our regs are based on their tier 5.

So I agree with you that standards are important for the reasons you mentioned. But whose standards, developed by whom, is the question.
I'd like to take it out of the political football arena and put it into the "what works" arena.