I say this not as a fan of Apple (I actually prefer Android) but to make a point.

Tesla put all the pieces together for a compelling EV the same way Apple put all the pieces together for a compelling smartphone. I'm not a fan of Apple but they completely revolutionized the phone industry and those who did not innovate died or withered away (Nokia, Blackberry and to some extent Motorola).

We are witnessing a similar revolution in the automotive industry as the entire automobile industry is about to go electric. It is nice to have a front row seat to all the action

 

About to go? No way. Electric cars are great for short trips and the city environment but that's it today. Super capacitors show promise for quick charging but until they become real charging is a problem. Even at 50 amps it takes more than a gasoline stop to charge an electric car. People don't have the time or inclination to plan their trips around charging. Can you imagine the chaos of whole cities with nothing but electric cars? With their limited mileage people would constantly be queuing at charge stations waiting for enough juice to get back home. Remote towns and homes would become inaccessible to out siders and vacations would become limited. We would have to change our lifestyles drastically to become all electric car users. Battery technology will improve but until it can match the convenience of gasoline cars will still use ICE.

 

"The entire automobile industry is about to go electric"? Are you serious? I guess I am going to drowned since I did not believe in getting on Noah's Ark--oh I mean the Tesla Cheerleading squad.


You must listen to what you are saying. I read your posts and think you must be working for Tesla. Remember Tesla is one car company and not the whole industry. And GM and others have had EVs for years. With the current infrastructure of charging stations, Tesla is going to need to sell a lot more cars to build infrastructure.

Will Tesla survive as a company? I am not so sure about that. See the below article. Will they ever make a continuous long term profit?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...he-profits-are




Don't get me completely wrong. Musk is an interesting guy. Without someone like him Tesla would not have gotten off the ground. Or is it off the ground yet? I analyze companies for a living. I remember lots of tech companies that went bust. Making a profit is a must long term. Can they do it?

 

The only reason Tesla got this far is subsidies.....paid by us. We bribed someone to make electric cars and then we bribe people to buy them all the while bragging about their popularity. Without subsidies the electric car and renewables industry would never have left the ground. Standing on their own merit....which is considerable, the advantages are enormous....this level of electric cars would never be sold today.

 

+1

 

All you people still in denial that all cars will go electric should read the following thread about an interview with no other than the Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche who himself believes that the era of internal combustion engines is essentially coming to an end and electric vehicles are the future.

They have invested so much on internal combustion engines that they are trying to prolong the transition as much as possible but the era of internal combustion engines is coming to an end and even Mercedes believes this. Charging times, range, and other EV issues will see huge improvements in the coming years. It is already at a point at which we can use our Tesla for all our driving needs.

https://mbworld.org/forums/new-s-cla...itis-more.html

 

Mercedes doesn't know what they are doing with their hybrids. They need to stop trying to perfect it themselves and just license it from Tesla.

S400 Hybrid diasater, Click me...

.

 

WEBSRFR--I think the Tesla Kool Aid has fried the brain.


Yes Electric Vehicles may be the future but is it 20 years, 50 years, or 100 years. And who will be the players? Tesla is not the first player to move forward on EVs. Clearly Tesla has been the most successful at it in my opinion but you need to drink less Tesla Kool Aid to see clearly.


Yes players like Tesla are trying to make it main stream but think about the world infrastructure that needs to be built to replace gas stations. Do you really think charging stations can replace every gas station this year or next year? It appears you may not have an understanding of how the world works here but yes Tesla is pushing the envelope. There are too many factors to be such a Tesla Cheerleader (we are in the first half of the first inning of a baseball game). Take a step back and think about this. Rome is not built in a day. It will take time.


I am not sure what country you live in but energy policy has a lot to do with what goes on. Glut of oil and the price of oil can slow down the progression of EVs. How about Nuclear Power Plants? They were on a pace of replacing other energy sources and the Fukushima disastrous slowed that progression. THINK! THINK! THINK! Get rid of the Tesla Kool Aid and THINK.

 

Oil prices? Seriously? We still would have bought our Tesla even if gas was free because it drives so much better than any gasoline car.

People who think the adoption of EVs are tied to oil prices fail to realize the inherent benefits of EVs.

EVs are 20, 50, 100 years away?

The inflection point is perhaps 5-10 years away. Wait until the Tesla Model 3 does to the Mercedes C and E Class sales what the Model S has done to the upper end premium car segment. Those who are still in denial will get the message then.

 

Yikes! I feel very bad for that owner. Seems like maybe the shop didn't do the oil change properly and that caused the engine to seize up and possibly damage the hybrid system.

In any case this is why I have always maintained it is a terrible idea to buy an overcomplicated hybrid mess. Either buy a gasoline car or buy a long range EV.

Hybrids made sense 10-15 years ago. They make no sense with present EV technology and increasing battery capacities.

 

Yep, correct. All I know is right now it costs me half the price to fill up my car than it did a few months ago... with a beautiful exhaust note.

 

Agree, the driving experience for electric cars is superior to ICE cars. Instant torque, smooth, and quiet.

You don't understand the technology requirements for EV's to become ubiquitous. First, it will require a breakthrough in battery technology to get more range. Even if they made that breakthrough today it would take 10 years to get it to production levels required. Second, charge times are a problem. People aren't ready to plan their trips, commute, and pleasure driving around power availability. Third, electric grid infrastructure for residences, businesses, field charging ports, and generation facilities would need to be expanded to handle the extra load. Last is the price point required for EVs. You pay a premium for battery capacity and that cost isn't going down with volume. The initial car cost should reduce with volume but it won't be as low as ICE cars....ever....due to battery cost. The big elephant in the room with EV maintenance will be battery deterioration. Li-Ion batteries have life cycles that are finite and they do require replacement. How many people do you know who can afford a $5K to $30K repair bill?

 

It's funny that you are pitching to people that are not anti-EV.
Many just point to the deficiencies (low range/low charging time. In the case of the Model S more luxury, quality, etc.) that need to be overcome before they would pull the trigger.

The inflection point of 5-10 years is (unfortunately) laughable. The Model S/X is a completely different buyer group than your $30k crowd. Many will already choke on the installation costs of the in-home chargers or would expect that for free. Even in the US, many live in apartments and will have no easy charging abilities.

In Europe, public charging stations will be required. 70% of car owners have no private parking. If you are thinking more new EV's than Diesels, we are talking about millions of charging stations.

For comparison, the HDTV standards are coming from the late 80's, TV sets started to be introduced 90's and until today we don't have a single station broadcasting in 1080p.
HDTV's are dirt cheap and yet only 70% of all TV sets in the US are HD.

Do the math...

 

I have done the math. This is going to happen a lot sooner than people think.

When the cost per KWh of battery capacity gets below $100 it will make it cheaper to build a 250 mile EV than it is to build a gasoline car. This used to be around $400-something just about 5 years ago and it is now right around $150. This will happen first in the higher end price segments and work its way down from there.

Look at it this way, 5 years ago I bet many people thought self driving cars are decades away. With current advances in technology we can expect to see fully autonomous self driving cars on the streets within the next 2-4 years and state of the art systems today can already do about 90% of the driving.

What's happening is the car is being electrified and from thereon it will be about software and technology and they tend to improve in huge leaps every year. We are witnessing an entire industry being revolutionized.

Also don't forget two of the world's valuable companies, Google and Apple, with essentially unlimited resources are building their own electric cars and we have yet to see their released products.

 

Your math includes one part of the equation. The easy one...
The hard one is infrastructure. It's costly and will only be partially privately funded.

No matter how valuable Google and Apple is, they will not pay to electrify automotive infrastructure. They are, after all in the business to make money

Btw. the self-driving car is not a useful example as it's easy to implement due of low software and hardware costs. Only legislation slows that down.

 

I understand your concern but the "problem" of infrastructure to support EVs is greatly exaggerated. There is electricity absolutely everywhere. There is more infrastructure in place to distribute electricity than there is to distribute water.

If Tesla, an absolutely tiny company, can end up covering pretty much the entire US by the end of next year it would be a lot easier for a larger company.

And funding EV charging is not that expensive. About $2,000-$3,000 per vehicle can pretty much cover the charging infrastructure and even the cost of electricity for long distance travel for pretty much the life of an EV.

As EV use goes up, money will be made providing charging facilities.

 

I can tell you have never been to Europe...

I am using Europe as an example for other parts of the world. Since everybody parks on the street in a European city, the process to provide power would be more complicated. The sidewalks would have to be ripped open, underground hi-current cables run to, let's say 20 stations per side per block. So the cost of excavation, installation and cleanup. Develop metered pay stations.
Now somebody will have to pay for all that and subsidize it for a decade or so because no driver will bear the cost of that. Cost would be realistically be closer to $15k per station (excluding electricity).

 

This is not good: First low resale values, and now we are hearing that as Tesla ages the problems go exponentially north, so there are concerns of reliability, rattles and squeaks.

Ref: http://www.consumerreports.org/cars/...h-performance/

As part of our Annual Auto Reliability Survey, we received about 1,400 survey responses from Model S owners who chronicled an array of detailed and complicated maladies. From that data we forecast that owning that Tesla is likely to involve a worse-than-average overall problem rate. That’s a step down from last year’s “average” prediction for the Model S. It also means the Model S does not receive Consumer Reports’ recommended designation. (To be recommended, a vehicle has to meet stringent testing, reliability, and safety standards, including having average or better predicted reliability.)

The main problem areas involved the drivetrain, power equipment, charging equipment, giant iPad-like center console, and body and sunroof squeaks, rattles, and leaks.

Specific areas that scored worse on the 2015 model, compared with the 2014 model in last year’s survey, were the climate control, steering, and suspension systems. Complaints about the drive system have also increased as the cars have aged

 

"This year, climate control, steering, and suspension systems all appeared to have more problems than they did during the 2014 model year. And complaints about the drive system from owners of older 2013 cars have risen as well.

The most common problems involve replacement of the electric motors, warped brake rotors, door handles that fail to slide out as a driver approaches, and numerous squeaks and rattles, which may be more apparent given the very quiet nature of electric propulsion.

Other problem areas cited by Tesla owners are leaking cooling pumps for the battery pack, dead windshield wipers, persistent alignment issues with the wheels, and misaligned latches for the front trunklid and the rear liftgate."

 

Unfortunately WEBSRFR you appear to be too self absorbed to see the big picture.


Yes you may have bought your Tesla if gas was free but the world does not revolve around WEBSRFR or me for that matter. I am guessing you are not a business person from some of your past comments.


It is about all the people in the world that Tesla will attempt to mass market the $35k priced car that will help Tesla to make it or not. As I mentioned earlier profit is ultimately important here. The value proposition is different for someone that can buy a $100k car vs someone that can only afford a $35k car. Tie in the fact that Consumer Reports (above post) is showing signs of Tesla's squeaks/rattles and general problems. Yes someone spending $100k on a car may not use Consumer Reports as their ultimate buying tool but someone that can spend only $35k on an EV will look at gas prices and the reliability factors since they cannot afford (in many cases) higher gas prices and replacing things like expensive batteries.


I am not against Tesla but your arguments are just very weak. In fact, I hope Tesla does make it. You are a Tesla Cheerleader and to some extent I respect that. But your arguments are weak.

 

Below quote is from the website plugincars.com.


"Tesla would have to defy all expectations to achieve success on the Model 3, while avoiding all the potential pitfalls—not only for the 200-mile $35,000 Model 3, but a massive new battery factory, and the Model X that comes first. Can Tesla do it again?"

 

You are recycling a story about 6 months old. Consumer Reports ranks Tesla below average reliability and it was not listed in the official rankings because at that time Tesla sold only one model. If it was ranked normally they would have ended up around 11 or 12th in terms of reliability. On the same ranking. Mercedes ranked 21st. So yeah reliability could be better but at least it is better than Mercedes.

Your assertion Tesla resale values are bad is just as wrong. Model S vehicles are holding their resale value better than or on par with a comparably priced S Class. Yes, that does mean it depreciates quite a bit the first couple of years but that is common with any upper end premium car.

 

You do realize the entire story of Tesla's existence and what they have accomplished has been about defying all expectations; right?

I'd say they've done a pretty darn good job so far. And they are just getting started.

 

You are confusing availability with load requirements. You know that increased amperage reduces charge time (and battery life). Normal 15 amps out of a wall socket won't get you too far.....although it's enough for some people. Someone commuting 150 miles/day needs 30 or 40 amps to recharge before the next day. Since everyone would be charging their cars at night at 30+ amps the load will be enormous. That kind of infrastructure and it's not insignificant. But that's not what's going to slow the movement to all electric cars because there isn't enough of them to challenge the infrastructure and it will grow slowly as needed but at a cost. It's all the other things we mentioned.

 

You do bring up a really good point about load requirements. Even this matter can be addressed and alleviated pretty easily. In fact you could easily benefit from the fact that most EVs are not used at night. Our electricity company offers TOU (Time of Use) charging for EVs where we get a special discounted rate when we schedule charging to take place at night when we are sleeping.

While it is true that the charge time with a 15 Amp outlet takes a while, few EV owners charge at that rate. The way to think of charging an EV is to setup an electric outlet as you would for an electric dryer and that's in the 50 Amp range. All it entails is the installation of a NEMA 14-50 outlet and that's not that unusual for a residential outlet. It only costs a few hundreds to a couple of hundred dollars for the install based on where your electric panel is located. Really not a big deal.

You do realize that less than 8 to 5% of the US population drives more than 35-50 miles for commuting; right? EVs might not be perfect for every use case but the point is they are more than sufficient for the vast majority of customers.

Also realize battery capacities will only go up and charging times will only come down. Tesla discontinued the 85 KWh packs and they now only sell 90 KWh packs at the high end. 95 or 100 KWh packs should be out within the year pushing range over 300 miles.

Also of note is that while Tesla charges at 400 Volts, Porsche is working on 800V technology for their upcoming EV, the Mission E, so that their charge times are around an 15 minutes.

There are challenges for sure but nothing insurmountable and nothing that can't be fixed with innovative thinking and technology.

https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/r...pdf/entire.pdf

https://www.census.gov/hhes/commutin...20the%20US.pdf

We just schedule charging to take place at night when load (and the cost of electricity) is low: