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"Audi aims to have three electric models by 2020 and for electric vehicles to account for 25 to 30 percent of its sales by 2025, CEO Rupert Stadler told a German newspaper."Automotive News article
According to WEBSRFR, Germany, Norway and probably rest of Europe are going to outlaw ICE vehicles by 2030 or so. Soon to be followed by US.
Where does Audi plan to sell the other 75% (ICE) of their production?
2015 S550 Palladium/Deep Sea Blue, 2016 Tesla Model S 70D, 2015 Volvo XC70
Originally Posted by El Cid
According to WEBSRFR, Germany, Norway and probably rest of Europe are going to outlaw ICE vehicles by 2030 or so. Soon to be followed by US.
Where does Audi plan to sell the other 75% (ICE) of their production?
Websrfr is getting carried away, imo. To me it is encouraging that Audi is taking EVs so seriously. Hopefully the industry will offer up an EV that is much more luxurious than the Tesla S or X by the time that I am ready to replace my W222, in maybe 2020-21. If not then, then the car we buy after that...certainly anything from Audi is likely to be sufficiently luxurious, imo.
Also acceptable to me would be a plugin hybrid with a semi-decent electric-only range, like 50+ miles.
According to WEBSRFR, Germany, Norway and probably rest of Europe are going to outlaw ICE vehicles by 2030 or so. Soon to be followed by US.
Where does Audi plan to sell the other 75% (ICE) of their production?
Norway will happen sooner than you think. About 20-25% of all new cars sold in Norway are already EVs.
I suppose Audi can sell the 75% of the non EV cars they build in Asia, Africa, and Russia perhaps. Oh almost forgot China and even India are about to transition away from combustion cars too so you can count them out around 2030 as well. Increasingly combustion cars will be relegated to the cheapest and least sophisticated cars available to buy.
China is essentially being strangled to death by toxic emissions from combustion cars with smog like what we used to have in California in the 80s before they cleaned up the air with stringent limits on pollution. When China decides to do something it happens as everything is centrally controlled and they will be not far behind Europe in mandating EVs given the health issues they face with polluted air.
China is so interested in EVs that they recently offered Elon Musk something unprecedented. Perhaps you are aware that in order for a foreign company to setup a factory in China they require an equal partnership with a local Chinese company but China is apparently open to Tesla exempting tesla from this requirement.
When the Tesla Model 3 ships next year it will be the beginning of the end for premium combustion cars.
EV"s will dominate car sales in the future, no doubt. I will just not be in 3-5 years. Think 15-20 in Westeren Europe/US.
No matter how promising certain tech is, when there are many competing interests and dependencies, things will take time.
A fitting comparison maybe cable and satellite companies (Comcast, Directv, etc.). It was assumed that net-based tech (streaming and on demand) will get rid of these outdated businesses years ago...
In this case, the tech was even there already unlike EV's.
2015 S550 Palladium/Deep Sea Blue, 2016 Tesla Model S 70D, 2015 Volvo XC70
Originally Posted by WEBSRFR
Within the next 3-5 years the premium car segment will come to be dominated by EVs and people will balk at buying a premium car that is not an EV.
I agree with Wolfman that 3-5 years is way too aggressive. To me, "dominated" would mean 50+% market share. If Audi is saying 25-30% of its production will be EV within NINE years, I think the ICE legacy companies collectively would be lucky to get to 10-15% in 5 years. So unless you think Tesla and other premium EV startups are going to take 35%, I don't think the premium segment will be "dominated" by EVs quite so soon.
I agree with Wolfman that 3-5 years is way too aggressive. To me, "dominated" would mean 50+% market share. If Audi is saying 25-30% of its production will be EV within NINE years, I think the ICE legacy companies collectively would be lucky to get to 10-15% in 5 years. So unless you think Tesla and other premium EV startups are going to take 35%, I don't think the premium segment will be "dominated" by EVs quite so soon.
Fair point and I understand where you and Wolfman are coming from. I agree with what you both are saying.
My thoughts on this matter stem from the fact that after the Model 3 was announced the market segment of Model 3 competitors have seen their sales in the US go down by 15% and that segment is already missing about $1.8BN in sales.
So let me revise my prediction to say that within 3-5 years EVs will begin to dominate the premium car segment not worldwide but that it will happen country by country and it will begin with certain countries first. Certainly countries like Norway are not that far from EVs dominating new car sales.
Also keep in mind that the Tesla Model S was released in 2012 and in 3 years the Model S became the market leader in the segment the S Class competed in and since then Model S sales have been increasing while pretty much every other competing model has been steadily losing sales.
Here's another perspective on how quickly EVs will go mainstream and begin to dominate the higher end automotive segment and then work its way down from there. The chart below shows the amount of preorders Tesla received in just ONE WEEK since the Model 3 was announced and how it compares to mass selling cars in the United States. Notice how Tesla received about as many pre orders for the Model 3 as the annual Toyota Camry sales in the United States.
When the Tesla Giga Factory 1 ramps up to full production with the ability to produce ~ 500,000 vehicles and additional Gigafactories are built it will affect the sales of the most profitable models of premium carmakers. This is a matter of profit as it is a matter of units sold. Tesla is still maintaining a profit margin of about 25% per car. The highest in the industry because EVs are substantially less complicated to build.
Last edited by WEBSRFR; 07-28-2016 at 11:12 AM.
Reason: Fix typo
Fair point and I understand where you and Wolfman are coming from. I agree with what you both are saying.
My thoughts on this matter stem from the fact that after the Model 3 was announced the market segment of Model 3 competitors have seen their sales in the US go down by 15% and that segment is already missing about $1.8BN in sales.
So let me revise my prediction to say that within 3-5 years EVs will begin to dominate the premium car segment not worldwide but that it will happen country by country and it will begin with certain countries first. Certainly countries like Norway are not that far from EVs dominating new car sales.
Also keep in mind that the Tesla Model S was released in 2012 and in 3 years the Model S became the market leader in the segment the S Class competed in and since then Model S sales have been increasing while pretty much every other competing model has been steadily losing sales.
Here's another perspective on how quickly EVs will go mainstream and begin to dominate the higher end automotive segment and then work its way down from there. The chart below shows the amount of preorders Tesla received in just ONE WEEK since the Model 3 was announced and how it compares to mass selling cars in the United States. Notice how Tesla received about as many pre orders for the Model 3 as the annual Toyota Camry sales in the United States.
When the Tesla Giga Factory 1 ramps up to full production with the ability to produce ~ 500,000 vehicles and additional Gigafactories are built it will affect the sales of the most profitable models of premium carmakers. This is a matter of profit as it is a matter of units sold. Tesla is still maintaining a profit margin of about 25% per car. The highest in the industry because EVs are substantially less complicated to build.
Apparently you are from California per an earlier post?
As for the above, you still don't have a clue. Now you are implying that Model 3 will sell almost as many cars as Toyta Camry?
How can Tesla have a 25% profit margin and lost money all four past quarters?
You still have never cited any references which show that the "announcement of the Model 3" resulted in decreased sales for premium cars in America. It just ain't so.
Your knowledge of the automobile industry and economics is sorely lacking a base in reality.
Lots of topics going on here. Back to Autopilot. I now have 10,000+ km using it. Thanks to over-the-air updates, it continues to get better and better. I still like to intervene when, for example, I get cut off or there's something strange in/on the road, but I've actually read the manual and stay vigilant. The YouTube videos showing people sleeping or otherwise not paying attention are made by idiots.
I will say, Autopilot is amazing as is. Compare it to what the MB company has cobbled together: http://www.thedrive.com/tech/4591/th...-tesla-model-s You should at least take a test drive and check Autopilot out.
The 25% profit margin on Model S, and possibly X as well, is true. The balance sheet issue is due to the buildout of infrastructure (think Amazon.com). Tesla is ramping up for the upcoming Model 3; the company is a major customer of some of the most incredible robotics on the planet. You want profits? Patience, grasshopper.
Apparently you are from California per an earlier post?How can Tesla have a 25% profit margin and lost money all four past quarters?
Are you seriously asking me why Tesla has yet to report a profit because they are investing billions to scale their technology to eventually reach the volume of a company such as Mercedes? Let me go down to the real basics.
On a per unit basis, Tesla cars are the most profitable in the auto industry. Their profit margin per unit is around 25%. With battery kWh cost dropping to around $100 they expect to maintain the current profit margin. At that point it would cost less to produce an EV than a combustion car (hence the start of the end for premium combustion cars).
The reason they have yet to make a profit is because whatever profit they make, they are investing it all on future growth (as they very well should).
Tesla is in the process of ramping up production from 50,000 vehicles a year to 500,000 vehicles a year and this will incur immense capital expenditures.
And before anyone posts how such a ramp up is impossible, understand that Henry Ford accomplished such a ramp up with early 1900-era technology. Tesla just has to track the Ford Model T ramp up, which they are.
If you still don't get it, study how Amazon ended up being what they are.
Both Amazon and Tesla has something in common: Rather than chase short term quarterly results for children with ADD they are instead building companies with massive growth for adults with patience for far greater rewards in the long-term.
Elon laid out his this plan for Tesla 10 years ago and interesting enough even merging solar power with the core Tesla business was environed 10 years ago.
You still have never cited any references which show that the "announcement of the Model 3" resulted in decreased sales for premium cars in America. It just ain't so.
Seriously, what part of this data chart do you not understand? Look at how the entry level the premium car segment in the US is pretty much across the board missing sales from last year since the Tesla Model 3 was announced.
If you feel these numbers are not accurate present your own facts and source. Saying "It just ain't so" does not change the facts.
The real test will come next year. Let's see how many people still buy an A4, C Class, or 3 series when for the same money they can buy a Tesla Model 3.
2015 S550 Palladium/Deep Sea Blue, 2016 Tesla Model S 70D, 2015 Volvo XC70
Originally Posted by WEBSRFR
Seriously, what part of this data chart do you not understand? Look at how the entry level the premium car segment in the US is pretty much across the board missing sales from last year since the Tesla Model 3 was announced.
If you feel these numbers are not accurate present your own facts and source. Saying "It just ain't so" does not change the facts.
The real test will come next year. Let's see how many people still buy an A4, C Class, or 3 series when for the same money they can buy a Tesla Model 3.
IMO, the downturn in sedan sales has more to do with the upturn in SUV sales (due to people thinking that gas will stay cheap for a long time) than people holding off on replacing their sedans because the might want to buy a Tesla Model 3 in 2 years or so.
IMO, the downturn in sedan sales has more to do with the upturn in SUV sales (due to people thinking that gas will stay cheap for a long time) than people holding off on replacing their sedans because the might want to buy a Tesla Model 3 in 2 years or so.
Good point but then the Tesla Model 3 pre orders will be effected too wouldn't it as the Model 3 is a car?
Oh and the June numbers are now in and it shows the entry level premium car market now missing over $2B in sales YTD. The sales are down across the board for just about every car the upcoming Tesla Model 3 will compete with. Just about all the Tesla Model 3 competition is showing double digit % decline in sales from last year.
Last edited by WEBSRFR; 07-28-2016 at 04:03 PM.
Reason: Typo.
Good point but then the Tesla Model 3 pre orders will be effected too wouldn't it as the Model 3 is a car?
While the numbers show an impressive interest in the car, a reservation is not a pre-order.
Pre-orders are typically fully committed orders that ship when the product becomes available. These here are simple reservation slots for fully refundable $1000.
Some will want to see if they can make money by selling an early build (or the slot), but most will make a decision to buy the car when they actually get notified to start configuring it.
My assumption is that people will look at what else is out there at the time, take in actual drive reviews, check on trade-in options (or lack there-of), financing and then decide to pull the trigger.
Over the years that number may increase but could also easily be cut in half.
Point is that this number can't really be used for any statistical comparison.
Except Tesla did not exaggerate the capabilities of Autopilot. They never called it a "self driving car" as Mercedes did with their advertisements. Tesla sells all cars with Autopilot turned off and there is a deliberate process to activate the technology and it is quite clear during that process how the technology is supposed to be used and that is to be used as a driving aid with a driver paying attention.
The Drive’s Alex Roy recently did a comparison of both systems. He wrote that Mercedes’ Drive Pilot is dangerous in most conditions and that he doesn’t even “understand how Mercedes-Benz could release this to the public.” Worse yet Mercedes does not update the software in their cars so you are stuck with the implementation the car is shipped with. He said of Tesla’s Autopilot that it is “definitely safer than a human driver alone, assuming you use it as intended.” And Tesla updates and improves the software several times each year.
Glad they pulled the ad. It was misleading and a typical marketing fluff piece.
Tesla marketing is misleading as well of course, starting with the name "Auto-Pilot" which refers to other autonomous systems (planes).
That said, neither Tesla's or MB's system is anywhere close to be used for autonomous or even semi-autonomous driving and can be best described as assistive.
Whoever relies on either one of these, risks their lives and the lives of others.
Except Tesla did not exaggerate the capabilities of Autopilot. They never called it a "self driving car" as Mercedes did with their advertisements. Tesla sells all cars with Autopilot turned off and there is a deliberate process to activate the technology and it is quite clear during that process how the technology is supposed to be used and that is to be used as a driving aid with a driver paying attention.
The Drive’s Alex Roy recently did a comparison of both systems. He wrote that Mercedes’ Drive Pilot is dangerous in most conditions and that he doesn’t even “understand how Mercedes-Benz could release this to the public.” Worse yet Mercedes does not update the software in their cars so you are stuck with the implementation the car is shipped with. He said of Tesla’s Autopilot that it is “definitely safer than a human driver alone, assuming you use it as intended.” And Tesla updates and improves the software several times each year.
Both systems are not ready for what people are trying to do with them.
Stop pitching Tesla. Just better than bad is still bad when it comes to safety.
Better than bad? If you consider a human driving a car without Autopilot to be bad, then yes, it is certainly better than bad.
As someone who uses Autopilot every day I disagree. The current Autopilot system has gone through several significant iterations with software updates and we are now expecting version 8.0. The system is absolutely ready and it is already statistically safer when used as directed when compared to a human driving a car without Autopilot.
Realize Autopilot will soon approach 200 MILLION miles of driving. There was one known fatality in just over 130 million miles where Tesla Autopilot was in use. Among all vehicles in the US, there is a fatality every 94 million miles. Worldwide, there is a fatality approximately every 60 million miles. So already the Tesla Autopilot system is about 50% better than a human at avoiding accidents. It will only get significantly better.
While a driver paying attention + Tesla Autopilot makes that diver safer, the latest Mercedes DrivePilot seems to be useless for practical use based on every review I had read of the technology. By Comparison, I can drive dozens of miles with Tesla Autopilot with very little input from me. Rather than just me being vigilant on my own I am better off with me being vigilant along with the Tesla ultrasonics, radar, the camera, and Autopilot software keeping an eye on everything.
Tesla Autopilot has completely changed the way we think about long distance driving.
Here's an example of Tesla Autopilot actively intervening to swerve and avoid an accident. It's these kind of accidents that are tough for humans to react to when hours of monotonous driving are involved and reaction times to unexpected situations diminish. At the same time the Tesla ultrasonics and Autopilot software is always at max vigilance every fraction of a second. The driver of the car below would have been in an accident if not for Autopilot. He never used any steering or pedal input to avoid this accident. It was all Autopilot.
Tesla marketing is misleading as well of course, starting with the name "Auto-Pilot" which refers to other autonomous systems (planes).
Please take the time to look up and understand what Autopilot is as it refers to the technology used in the aviation industry.
It is not what you think it is.
Autopilot always requires a pilot to pay attention to the flying of the airplane. It will happily fly into a tornado, a mountain, or another plane if the pilot is not paying attention.
When a Tesla owner activates Autopilot there is an activation sequences that spells out in detail that it is to be used as a driving aid and that it is essentially lane keeping assist and traffic aware cruise control. It just happens to do those functions better than any other car manufacturer by a very large margin.
Please take the time to look up and understand what Autopilot is as it refers to the technology used in the aviation industry.
It is not what you think it is.
Autopilot always requires a pilot to pay attention to the flying of the airplane. It will happily fly into a tornado, a mountain, or another plane if the pilot is not paying attention.
When a Tesla owner activates Autopilot there is an activation sequences that spells out in detail that it is to be used as a driving aid and that it is essentially lane keeping assist and traffic aware cruise control. It just happens to do those functions better than any other car manufacturer by a very large margin.
I hope you are paid very well by Tesla Propaganda Department to spend so much time on just this one blog.
The research, sources and info prep must require a full staff of workers.
I hope you are paid very well by Tesla Propaganda Department to spend so much time on just this one blog.
The research, sources and info prep must require a full staff of workers.
I can't speak for WEBSURFER, but I'm guessing he's much like me--a very satisfied car owner. No pay involved.
07-27-2016, 09:38 AM
